Brutus to Cassius:
There is a tide in the affairs of men.
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are we now afloat,
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose our ventures.
Julius Caesar Act 4, Scene 3.
The decision by Gordon Brown to quit the Labour leadership is obviously as a result of the discussions that have been going on between l’Éminence grise – the Rt. Hon. the Lord Mandleson of Foy and Hartlepool and the Lib Dems. As suggested in previous articles by the British Gazette, Monsieur le Clegg has found himself to be in the position of the Grand Old Duke of York [& Albany]. Whilst the Duke was able to march his 10,000 men up the hill and down again, it became increasingly clear to Monsieur le Clegg that it was highly unlikely that he could march his MPs through the division lobbies in support of Tory public spending cuts. Hence the formalised talks with Labour.
Monsieur le Clegg however is now in the position of Cassius – he has left it too long for tomorrow Monsieur le Clegg will face a flood of a different kind. This will be the flood of instructions on the London stock market and the foreign exchange markets to sell, sell, sell. British Gazette readers will have course have noted the 750 billion Euro fighting fund to deter speculators from speculating against the Euro. It is generally considered to be a move that will work – to discourage traders speculating against the Euro – in the short term. Speculators and foreign exchange traders however are like wolves. The wolf pack will hunt out new prey. Weak and vulnerable prey. Like Sterling surrounded by indecision as to the direction of the U.K.’s government. The British Gazette thinks that there is a distinct possibility that there will be a torrid day on the markets tomorrow – which could lead to Brown resigning as Prime Minister – before the outcome of the talks with the Lib Dems. Were the U.K.’s AAA credit rating to be downgraded as a result of such turmoil this would almost certainly bring about the resignation of Brown.
Constitutional “experts” would suggest that the PM would want to avoid this as it would put the Queen in a difficult position as there is no clear choice of Prime Minister. The British Gazette would point out that this is the man who signed the Lisbon Treaty that did far more than any previous move to injure the Queen’s Majesty. Furthermore, the Queen would have a clear and easy choice in such circumstances. She would have to choose David Cameron and ask him to form a minority government. This of course will be what many Tories will be wanting. Cameron’s plan of action from there is obvious. It will be to put forward a vigorous Queen’s Speech written with deficit reduction largely in mind. A Queen’s Speech which none of the other parties will feel able to do other than to vote it down. This of course will precipitate another General Election.
At this second general election the Tories message will be clear. It is a message that will be echoed by Labour. It will be this: IF YOU WANT TO AVOID THE RECENT CHAOS – DO NOT VOTE LIB DEM – VOTE TORY OR VOTE LABOUR. By their actions the Lib-Dems will have been the architects of their own demise. Their problem was that they did not read the British Gazette! If Monsieur le Clegg had wanted to achieve his aim of establishing PR for the Commons he should have had a quick cursory discussion on Friday afternoon with Cameron and then straight into talks with Labour and to be ready to announce a formal Lib-Lab pact before the markets opened this morning. Then do what the British Gazette suggested. Put PR in place and go to the country. But that particular horse seems to have bolted.