The Lib-Dem Con coalition agreement which is for a five year term contains plans to implement primary legislation to set a fixed term parliaments of five years. It is highly doubtful that this coalition will last that long. As the Americans would say – do the math….
The Tories have 306 seats but will have 307 seats if they hold Thirsk & Malton – which is expected.
When the 57 Lib-Dem seats are added, this gives them an effective majority of 82 due to the de-facto winning post is now 321 seats and not the 326 seats as the 5 Sinn Fein MPs do not take their seats.
In normal circumstances, this is a comfortable majority for a five year term. However this is likely to reduce for two reasons:
(i). The Grim Reaper – MPs are generally not the fittest of people and their lifestyles are not the healthiest.
(ii). The Awkward Squad – MPs who do not obey the whip – this is generally a fluid collection as MPs will generally differ on the issues on which their views diverge from the party line.
The problem for this coalition is that the Lib-Dems are notoriously difficult to corral even in support of their own party’s policies – let alone Tory policies! Expect when the going gets tough – and it is going to get VERY tough VERY quickly – to see errant Lib-Dems “cross the floor” to the Labour benches.
Ironically, the Tories are not going to be too disappointed at this as the general election which will be brought about will enable them to portray the Lib-Dems as the wreckers and both main parties – Labour and Conservative – will be singing from the same hymn sheet with the line: “VOTE FOR US OR VOTE CONSERVATIVE/LABOUR – DO NOT VOTE LIB-DEM.”
If by a miracle the Lib-Dem Con goes the distance the prospect of their defeat is high? Why? In two words: POWER CUTS. Now that the new Green Tories have hitched their wagon to the Lib-Dem’s woolly jumper brigade and given the size of the sovereign debt power cuts are almost certain around 2015. This is due to the lunatic insistence of “…..reducing CO2 emissions…..” the combination of lack of money and green policies will mean wind turbines. Whilst wind power is very expensive the capital costs are actually quite low – in comparison with such as cheapest form of electric power – large coal fired power stations. This means it will be the favoured choice of the Lib-Dem Con. Wind power however CANNOT fill the nation’s requirements. This will mean power cuts. When the average Briton gets home from a hard day’s work and finds that they can’t cook their meal in the microwave and can’t switch on the telly to look at their favourite programme but devour a cold salad illuminated by candlelight they are not going to be too receptive to the Lib-Dem canvasser waxing lyrical about their green credentials.