Today’s article by its nature is speculative, but we think that Eurorealists should be looking ahead to the future. The ConLib coalition intends to go to the country in May 2015 after a full five years in office. There has been speculation by numerous political commentators about the likelihood of the coalition surviving but the British Gazette is of the opinion that the Liberal-Democrats will be in no hurry to “pull the plug” – this assumption based upon the commonly held belief that “Turkeys do not vote for an early Christmas.”
So the question that UKIP and those who wish UKIP well have to consider is this: How should UKIP place itself in British politics in May 2015?
Although it seems fantastical to many, there is a very great possibility that the Eurozone and the European Union will not exist in May 2015. This is because the necessary constitutional developments to save the Eurozone and the EU as it now is will probably prove politically impossible to implement.
If the Eurozone and the European Union does exist in May 2015 it will be a very different beast from what it is now. It might be a shrunken version comprising of the original six founding members (Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands), plus Austria, Malta and Slovenia. The other eighteen former members may be members of EFTA. This would include the UK. This however is the most optimistic scenario.
Much more likely will be a ramshackle “dog’s breakfast” or “pig’s dinner” with the aforementioned eight states which will comprise in effect a convergent federal state using the Euro. The establishment of the unified federal Euro-state requires a treaty change. Cameron has pledged that a referendum of the British People will be required if any further sovereign powers are handed over to the EU. Of course, a new treaty setting up a unified federal Euro-state is most unlikely to result in more sovereign powers being handed over to the EU by those member states outside the Eurozone. However, Cameron will be under the most enormous political pressure (from his back-benchers and the Eurosceptic press) to demand the return of powers. In particular this will center around the urgent need to protect the City of London from EU Directives. Cameron will be aware that failure by him to acheive this will result in the present Qualified Majority Voting (QMV) extensions contained in the Lisbon Treaty coming into effect in 2014 – a year before the planned 2015 General Election.
The record of past British governments in their negotiations with the EU have been pathetic. However, EuroRealist commentators in this country sometimes overlook the fact that there are other member states in the EU each of who have their own interests and agendas. The new unification treaty will require the consent of all 27 member states. Clearly, the other nine members (of the ten other than the UK) who are outside the Eurozone, will doubtless take the opportunity to advance their own agendas.
It is likely that each of the other eighteen states will have negotiated “opt-outs” with the core EU which will have resulted in the partial reversal of the Acquis Communautaire. This reversal may not be uniform across all member states, who are likely to possess the status of “Associate Member.”
It is probable that in future the debate in the UK will be around the level of involvement in the EU. Clearly the Europhiles centred around the pro-EU Tories (who are mostly on the Tory left), Liberal-Democrats and “New Labour” will be wanting more links and the Eurosceptic Tory right, less.
It is at this point important to point out that the whole EU debate will be tied in with the climate change debate as “climate change” and its associated fraud “carbon trading” will be one of the areas that is likely to remain with the EU. It is this aspect that the British Gazette feels that UKIP should concentrate upon. Why?
Because “carbon trading” and “carbon taxes” are regressive. They hit the poor most. It is those on income support and the elderly reliant on their pension and savings – which are paying virtually zero interest – who are paying for this monstrous and cruel scam that is the Great Carbon Con.
Given these cruel facts of economic life, it is clear what the target should be: Labour and the Trades Union. These institutions were set up to promote the interests and the welfare of the poor and the working class. Precisely the section of society hardest hit by the Great Carbon Con. Wealthy middle class Tory supporters in the shires who can afford the £15,000 to £20,000 necessary for photovoltaic solar panels on the roofs of their detached houses will be doing very well nicely thank you out of the Great Carbon Con. Not only will they be getting a return that be NINE TIMES GREATER than the return most old age pensioners will be getting on their savings, these returns will be INFLATION PROOFED by being linked to the RPI, GUARANTEED for TWENTY FIVE YEARS and to cap it all, these returns will be TAX FREE – even to those on the top 50% tax rate!
Were this obscene regressive redistribution not bad enough, the inequality of the classes will be cruelly and sorely demonstrated when the power cuts will come – and come they now will – by those wealthy well to do Tories able to maintain their comfortable existence through the purchase and use of stand-by diesel generator sets. Thus, whilst the poor and the elderly on the cheaper housing estates eek out a miserably cold existence using candles and paraffin heaters deprived on TV, radio and the internet – around which so much of life now revolves, the wealthy will continued unaffected.
It is very important not to underestimate the importance of this last fact. You see, there is a phrase that has been recently in circulation; “we are all in this together.” Well “we” wont be! The rich will have heat and power and the poor and the elderly won’t. If that is not a scenario that cannot and will not “gird the loins” of the British political left, we don’t know what will!
The problem – and it is a VERY BIG problem – is that UKIP is seen as an openly anti EU spin off from the Tory party. The poor and the elderly in the Labour’s heartlands are not going to transfer their allegiance from Labour to UKIP. They may very well transfer their support to the BNP however.
It will be the BNP’s campaigning against the Great Carbon Con that will exercise and motivate the Labour Party and the Trades Union. Hopefully, there will be sufficient intelligent members of the British political Left who will finally realise it will not be the demand for high dividends demanded by the shareholders of the power companies that is the problem: it is the artificially and contrived cost increase increases so far as the generating of electricity. Hopefully these people will come to the logical conclusion that the way to reduce the heating and electricity bills to the poor and the elderly is to reduce the costs of generation! This means abandonment of the ridiculous wind turbines and exploitation of the huge reserves of shale gas being discovered in the UK. This and this alone will restore the reliable power generating capacity of the UK and cut costs.
What about nuclear power? You ask.
The problems with nuclear are time and money.
From commencement of planning to completion takes years. You can be sure that the anti-nuclear campaigners will be able to delay the procedure by years through constant legal challenges and demands for judicial reviews. We have seen how a determined, organised and well financed legal campaign can drag things out in the case of the Dale Farm travellers. Of course, this will be the same for Shale Gas and their associated gas fired power stations. However, the exploitation of the UK’s shale gas and the construction of gas powered generating stations will be far cheaper and quicker. So far as the protestors are concerned, the only practical way to deal with this is legislation to change and simplify the planning process.
So where does that leave UKIP?
UKIP has to consider whether or not it is worthwhile remaining in existence as a political party. It might be better for UKIP to deregister as a political party and to re-register as a political campaign group and to change its name to the United Kingdom Independence Campaign. In other words UKIP becomes UKIC.
This would meant that UKIP/UKIC could maintain is organisation and coherence and for its members able – if they wanted to – to join other political parties. Were this to occur, it is likely that most UKIPers would join the Tories. The effect on the Tory party of this would be profound. The Tory “Eurosceptic right” would be bolstered enormously.