This ebullience illustrates the naivety of the Tory Eurosceptics. They believe that they can have their cake and too eat it too. Ironically, one of the most sensible comments has come from that Arch-Europhile, Denis MacShane (above) who commented; “…There is now little point in Britain staying in the EU. I congratulate ….. the Eurosceptics on their victory. It is a historic turning point and Britain might as well get out now, as Europe’s future will be settled without us….”
Of course, Mr Cameron is fully aware of the momentous decision he had to take at the summit meeting. This of course why he put on such an elaborate coup de théâtre. In yesterday’s article, Treaty? What Treaty? One could be forgiven in concluding that this organ failed to draw the reader’s attention to the significance of the impasse.
Of course Mr. MacShane would very much like Mr Cameron to turn around and propose the UK leaves the EU immediately. He is of course not going to do this. Cameron has got to allow the situation to develop.
In yesterday’s article we used the terms “smoke and mirrors” and “coup de théâtre” as the UK has been subject to such from before the Arch-Traitor Heath took this country into the European Community in 1973.
Remember the “Common Market?” The free trade group that never was? The term “Common Market” was a term exclusive to Britain. That marked the opening scene of the coup de théâtre orchestrated by Heath. Throughout the time of this country’s suzerainty to the EC/EEC/EU there has been a continual deception practised upon the British People that somehow British Sovereignty was not impaired. When this lie became impossible to sustain the term “pooled sovereignty” came into being.
We would refer the reader to Jean Monnet who said, “Europe’s nations should be guided towards the super-state without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps each disguised as having an economic purpose, but which will eventually and irreversibly lead to federation.”
Monnet’s statement described the truth that generations of British Europhile politicians have sought to shield the British People from. Now, Cameron realises that the moment may be approaching where the charade is coming to an end. He has to prepare the ground for a British exit. How is this going to go down?
Insofar as the Tobin Tax is concerned, the French and the Germans have a simple decision to make: to proceed or not to proceed. They will of course be informed by the fact that a 26 member wide Tobin Tax with 1 exempted (the UK) member (whose capital London, is the premier financial centre in the EU) is a non starter. Such would be a huge boon to the City of London as the inevitable result of such an arrangement would be a large transfer of profits (and employment) from EU financial centres to London. The French and the Germans are NOT going to allow this to happen. Therefore the choice is plain: they abandon the plan OR institute such and get the lawyers to draft a text which extends the EU’s writ to cover the UK and rely on the ECJ to affirm the legality of the move.
Theirs will be a gamble. Will the British People vote for a party with a manifesto commitment to leave the EU? Of course the French and the Germans are thinking way ahead of the Tory Eurosceptics who naively think that they have secured by Cameron’s coup de théâtre, a “British opt-out.”
Here is a probable scenario:
The UK’s fellow twenty six members will formulate an international or executive agreement within the terms of the Treaty of Lisbon to put in place the necessary structure of a federal economic government over the Eurozone. Additionally measures will be put in place to ensure that the “Tobin Tax” or Financial Transaction Tax across the EU. The officials in the EU at the behest of the French and the Germans will put in place a form of words which the authorities in Brussels will deem applies to the financial institutions in the City of London – the clause will define the limits of the Tobin Tax as those states that form part of the Single Market – which of course includes the UK. When this happens the [expletive deleted] will hit the fan.
Clearly the coalition government will declare that the EU is acting Ultra Vires. This of course will go straight to the European Court of Justice. Anybody who thinks that the ECJ will give judgment in favour of the UK is living in cloud cuckoo land!
At that point Cameron will be forced into the position of making a decision. Accept the writ of Brussels or not. Refusal to accept the ECJ’s judgement will result in the government being forced to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972. Accepting the writ of Brussels will result in political annihilation for the Tories.
Before he set off, Cameron knew what was going to go down. The French and the Germans were determined to impose the Tobin Tax. This would have resulted in the City of London being hugely damaged and the Tories holed below the waterline. Thus he walks out. He now has to wait.
Of course, Cameron would like the EU to roll over and allow the UK to continue as before. He would like the EU to accept that the UK can “opt out” of what it does not like. But the French and the Germans are not going to allow this. People across Europe are suffering and their politicians will want to be seen, “making the British pay.” The French have already argued that the problem [the European debt crisis] started in the financial services sector. This is like an alcoholic blaming the whiskey distillery for his alcoholism.
Cameron realises that it can only be by being able to portray the EU as being “unreasonable” and a threat to British interests that he can present an argument (disingenuous) that the EU has changed in such a way that the UK is better off out. This in fact is another necessary charade in order to allow the Tories to accept an argument that does not appear to be contradictory.
Of course, this is more than likely to result in a General Election than a referendum. We can see the Liberal Democrats are in a dilemma following what has just taken place. It is difficult to imagine how the coalition could endure the Tories wishing to defy the ECJ. It will be at that point both Labour and the Tories will realise that the forthcoming election will be a straight two party contest between them. That the Lib-Dem vote will be annihilated, that the UKIP vote will also be annihilated. The Greens will probably pick up some votes from unhappy Lib-Dems, but the First Past the Post electoral system will work against them.
Be prepared to go to the polls at some point before Christmas 2013. Of course, the Labour Party will say that it was the Tories abandonment of the UK’s seat at the table that led to this. That would be wholly dishonest. But then, Mr Ed Miliband is a perjurer so what’s new? Labour will focus its attack on the fact that the Tories will appear to be protecting the interests of “the bankers” and the “City of London.” Of course, this is absolutely vital as carp as you may, the City of London is the goose that lays the golden eggs.
Of course, Cameron’s most powerful opponent will be the Brussels Brainwashing Commissariat which announced Cameron’s veto in suitably doom laden tones. Be sure that this agent for Treason will seek to hinder any effort to restore lawful government to the UK.