If any words can be said to represent the writing on the wall, these are they. With these few words the agency had shed reality on the political dream that was Project Europe.
In British political terms Cameron is of course fully aware of this: He will have made plans accordingly. As stated in our article of the 14th December – Olli Rehn: Too little. Too late – Cameron will have planned for two eventualities. One the survival of the Euro and the EU in which the EU seeks to regulate the City of London and impose “tax harmonisation” on all EU members – whether or not they are Eurozone members. Cameron knows that his party could not stomach this and therefore would welcome the collapse of the coalition and a chance to go to the country to obtain a majority government with the prospect of RENEGOTIATION. The alternative scenario, a Eurozone and EU collapse – one will follow the other – will present the UK with an opportunity and at the same time a challenge. Be in no doubt, the collapse of the Eurozone will be an economic catastrophe on the first order of magnitude. The UK will of course be adversely affected. However the other EU members will be affected the more so. This economic whirlwind will be the storm that sweeps away the EU.
Some Eurorealists whilst looking forward to the restoration of lawful government in our country seem to have ignored the obvious: that this is going to be a very painful episode in out country’s long history. Many Britons are going to suffer – financially. Unemployment will soar. Trade will plummet. There will be more public spending cuts and more tax rises. MISERY WILL ABOUND.
Yet, it will be necessary. We would suggest an analogy: Recently, on the BBC’s “Antiques Roadshow”, Fiona Bruce interviewed a lady who had brought a piece of memorabilia along. This lady happened herself to be an explorer and related to Fiona a gruesome experience. When last this lady was in the Antarctic, she found herself in a dreadful position. Her toes had not only become frost bitten. They had become gangrenous! This brave and intrepid lady performed the act that was absolutely vital to save her life. She amputated the affected toes herself without anaesthetic! The reader will surely shudder with horror imagining themselves in such a dreadful position. Be in no doubt however: this extraordinary lady did the one thing that was ABSOLUTLY NECESSARY. Had she not done so she would have died.
Some Eurorealists will be hoping that Cameron would go to the country on the basis of EU Withdrawal. This is not going to happen.
The sad fact of the matter is this: there is one way and one way only that lawful sovereign government can be restored to these islands. By the collapse of the entity that now governs us: the European Union.
A negotiated withdrawal is not a practical option. Why?
UKIP have repeatedly stated that trade would be unaffected. That the EU has a surplus on their balance of trade, and would not wish to see this change. That if they took measures against our exports, they would appeal to the WTO or take retaliatory measures.
Err….. Not quite.
Remember the European Communities Act came into effect on New Year’s Day 1973. In a fortnight’s time that will be exactly thirty nine years ago. Much has changed since then. Over that time this country has lost much of the resources (in terms of expert skilled staff – legal and scientific) to redraft all the treaties that would be required. Were the country to unilaterally withdraw from the EU we would be out of the single market and trade would effectively come to a halt as we would have no trade arrangements in place. Of UKIP assumes that the country would continue to trade with the EU by renewing our membership of EFTA and the European Economic Area.
First of all the other EFTA country’s would have to agree to let the UK in. This probably would not be too much of a problem. However what would come next would be – renegotiation of the EEA treaty would be as it requires unanimity of all EU member states. Singular British withdrawal from the EU could not be achieved overnight – it would take many years and would cost huge amounts as the EU would insist on compensation and transitional arrangements. Not only that but the country has lost so much of its own expertise it would have to retrain and re-skill new staff and this takes time. And all this against a backdrop of a British political scene that is famous for short termism!
So, how do we suggest that lawful government be restored to this formerly sovereign land?
It would have to be a collective effort. The UK’s only opportunity will come if and when the EU falls apart following a Eurozone crash.
How would it fall apart?
By those member states that were outside the Eurozone coming to the conclusion that they would be better off participating in the Single Market as members of EFTA and the EEA than as members of the EU.
The collapse of the Eurozone and the EU will probably a small core of states: Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg – note the absence of Italy. A “new Euro” would emerge that is effectively the Deutschmark but called the new Euro. Tight economic government – by Germany – will ensue.
The remaining 21 members of the EU would then become members of EFTA and the EEA. That would mean the redrafting of three international treaties: the Lisbon Treaty, the EFTA treaty and the EEA treaty.
Anyone thinking that the UK will be able to have an immediate bonfire of EU regulations will be sadly mistaken. Many such regulations form part of the European Single Market – which is why such regulations are referred in Norway as the fax laws – and in any event Germany will insist upon such regulations remaining.
There will be those Eurorealists who will consider the British Gazette is taking too pessimistic a line. We would prefer to call it realistic.
Here is another analogy: You have been appointed the managing clerk of a firm of solicitors, Bennett & Company in Launceston in Cornwall. The previous holder – of some thirty nine weeks – had been dismissed due to incompetence.
You quickly discover a major aspect of your predecessor’s incompetence. He signed a 15 year lease on a gigantic photocopier. The machine has a maintenance contract attached. Not only is the OEM toner fantastically expensive, the agreement forbids you from purchasing other brand toner that is ten times cheaper! Furthermore, the firm has to import special photocopier paper from a firm in Brussels at the cost of €100 Euros per ream! From a Mr Herman Van Rompuy. Not only that, the maintenance contract demands monthly visits from the “engineer” (technician) to which visits are followed by a monthly invoice for £300! Just for the visit. There is more to pay if the technician should discover something untoward!
You undertake some quick research. It seems your predecessor, a Mr David Cameron had become infatuated with a dominatrix he used to visit regularly as one of her “slaves” – after all, he was educated at Eton. The dominatrix was a Mistress Merkel whose dungeons were in the cellars of her house in the village of Germansweek just over 13 miles away and some twenty-five minutes drive from the office. Her website, www.europa.eu, described her as a strict and demanding domina. It seems that Cameron – as part of his “tribute”, had signed the lease with one of Mistress Merkel’s in-laws, a Monsieur Sarkozy of Europa Office Services of Okehampton. The technician was a Lancashire woman called Mrs Catherine Ashton – who did not seem particularly competent.
You contact Monsieur Sarkozy and ask him to cancel the lease. Monsieur Sakozy immediately becomes very rude and aggressive and refuses to consider any such cancelation. You tell your employers who after examining the lease agreement inform you that the firm can indeed insist on the cancelation but will have to pay all the remaining lease payments – there being 15 years to run plus a cancellation charge equivalent to one year’s maintenance (£3,600).
You come to the conclusion however that the photocopier is taking up so much space – it is ten times the size of the next largest photocopier – that notwithstanding the horrific cancellation costs cancellation is the best option.