• Eastleigh Bye Election: Still to play for.


    The statement “UKIP might win Eastleigh” is not as improbable as “Pigs might fly.” The Liberals would appear to be the most likely winner, but if they win it will be with a very small majority.

    The great imponderable is the voters reaction to the opinion pollsters. According to the polls, UKIP are trailing the Tories. However, there is a possibility that UKIP’s support might be understated. This is due to the reactions different voters have to answering the pollster’s questions. What readers may not be aware of is just how the pollsters record some of the voters answers.

    Many voters, especially in bye elections, will answer to the effect, “It is a secret ballot” or, “I’m not telling you.” or “None of your [expletive sometimes used] business.” These responses are recorded as “Don’t knows.”

    This misreporting on the part of the pollsters tends to under estimate the votes of smaller parties, especially parties that people may well be unwilling to admit to supporting – such as the BNP. Of course, UKIP is not the BNP and therefore voters may well be less reticent.

    Certainly, the Daily Express is bullish:

    So, fingers, toes and everything else crossed!

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