• A Shot in the Dark.


    Above, Peter Sellers as Inspector Jacques Clouseau of and Elke Sommer as Maria Gambrelli in the 1964 film, A Shot in the Dark.

    Discharging a round in such as a dark cellar is a very dangerous thing to do, as you don’t know what will be hit or the round could ricochet and end up hitting you. Most sensible people would not dream of doing such a thing!

    Unfortunately for Scotland, Messrs. Salmond & Sturgeon have done the constitutional equivalent of this! See the video below in which Ms. Sturgeon demands a Scottish veto on any referendum for EU withdrawal.British Gazette Comment: Oh Dear, Oh Dear, Oh Dear! Memo for Nicola Sturgeon: Engage brain BEFORE putting mouth into gear.

    Ms. Sturgeon’s intentions are perfectly clear: These are her two assumptions:

    First assumption: Cameron forms a majority Tory government or with Nigel Farage forms a UKIP/Tory coalition government. They reject her call [for a Scottish veto], the England votes to leave whilst Scotland votes to stay: Result, constitutional crisis leading to a new referendum [on independence] leading to secession [of Scotland from the UK].

    Second assumption: She secured a Scottish veto from a referendum Miliband might put forward should a treaty change occur. England votes to leave whilst Scotland votes to stay: Result, England is forced to stay resulting in a constituional crisis leading to a new referendum [on independence] leading to secession [of Scotland from the UK].

    There are just a couple of teeny weeny problems here. Neither of these two scenarios are going to happen!

    Oh Dear!

    What IS going to happen is this – WHOEVER wins in May 2015!

    In 2017 there WILL be a referendum on the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

    Why? Not because of Mr Cameron demanding one. Not at all! There will be one because there will have to been one as ALL EU states not in the Eurozone have to be in the Eurozone after 2020. The exceptions are the UK and Denmark. Therefore the arrangements for the UK and Denmark HAVE to be settled.

    The situation is exacerbated (for the Unfortunate Nicola) by the ABSENCE of the Status Quo. You see, in a refernedum where the choice is 1. Change and 2. No Change, there is a general tendency in an electorate to vote for 2. No Change. This is called the Status Quo effect.

    Unfortunately (for Nicola) there will be no, “No change option.” Oh Dear!
    You see the two choices presented to the UK will be these:

    1. Withdrawal from the EU but to remain within the European Economic Area (EEA) as a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).

    2. Remaining in the EU but within the Eurozone. This will involve not only adopting the Euro, but acceding to the new Economic Harmonisation treaty which will hand complete control of monetary and fiscal policy to the EU and joint competence insofar as taxation (and most other domestic policies) is concerned.

    So now you see why Ed Miliband is NOT in the least bit troubled by the EU debate for he knows that the British People will in the main vote for EU withdrawal in these circumstances. So much so that the Labour party along with the Tories will be advocating just that! The Greens, the Lib-Dems, Plaid Cymru and the SNP presumably will argue for EU and Eurozone membership.

    The likelihood is that whether there is a Labour/SNP coalition and a referendum with a Scottish veto, a Tory government or a Tory/UKIP coalition and a referendum with no Scottish veto, the result is likely to be the same in Scotland as it is in England: withdrawal from the EU and entry into the EEA.

    Now let us address the possibility of a campaign in Scotland [during a referendum that has a Scottish veto] where the SNP aided by the Greens and the Lib-Dems achieve a majority [in Scotland] for continued EU membership within the Eurozone. This probably would lead to secession. However although Scotland would secede, Scotland is unlikely to remain independent of England for more than a decade or so for the EU in its expanded form is unlikely to last much longer than this.

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