If the opinion polls are correct, on Friday 8th May, 2015, Unionist politicians (Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and UKIP) at Westminster will have a very real situation to deal with.
Yesterday’s Daily Mail had an article about Nicola Sturgeon.
The intention of the DM’s Editor by printing the article was clear – to try and engender as much support as he can for the Tories. The article can however be used for another purpose – one the BG wishes to use it for: an analysis of the potential choices facing the Labour Party on Friday 8th May, 2015. The word “potential” being of course the operative word for the DM Editor’s scaremongering is based on the fear (by the supporters of other parties) that Labour will emerge as the largest party after the election but some distance short of the 325 seats + 1 it needs to form a majority.
The DM’s Editor is rattling the cage about the purported “progressive coalition” mentioned by some in the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens. This “progressive coalition” being an alliance between these parties and Labour.
In THEORY the DM Editor is right. Mr Milliband could indeed enter into a coalition with such but in PRACTICE it would be extremely dangerous for both Labour and the UK to do so. This is because the UK’s credit rating would be cut – AGAIN – and the interest rate charged on the UK’s debt would go up. The cost of servicing the National Debt would climb. Were the “progressive coalition” not to do this but to pursue an economic policy that would maintain the UK’s existing credit rating and level of debt service cost remain the same the price would be that Scotland and Wales would be specially insulated from austerity whilst England would be made to suffer. The effect on Labour’s fortunes would be catastrophic.
So you see what the DM’s Editor is suggesting is that the Scottish Sorceress Sturgeon will offer Edward the Unfortunate a poisoned chalice and that Ed would drink of it!
We know that turkeys don’t vote for Christmas. Even Jewish ones!
There are those in the Labour Party and there are those in the Conservative Party who are saying that they would govern as a minority government. This is true of many Tory MPs and activists who are fed up with 5 years of coalition with the Lib-Dems and desperately want to be part of a Conservative government. Unfortunately (for them) the size of the UK’s deficit will preclude this – unless they too want to endure the same fate of cut credit rating and increased debt service cost.
If the UK did not have the debt it did a minority government (Conservative or Labour) would be possible. However the UK’s Creditors – of which there are many – will demand five years of stable coherent government following policies aimed to cut the deficit and repay the debt.
All of which brings us back to the “unthinkable prospect” of the Grand Coalition.
The problem here is that Labour politicians will be looking to try and salvage something from Scotland. What they have to understand is that they are in a No Win situation. If they form a coalition with the SNP Sturgeon wins. If they form a Grand Coalition – Sturgeon wins. If they form a minority government – Sturgeon wins. This is why the lady is smiling so broadly!
The one thing all Conservative and Labour activists, candidates and members have to focus on is that expression oft used by US politicians: “It’s the Economy Stupid!”
If the Conservative and Labour parties want to be able to salvage something in 2020 they will have to form a Grand Coalition aimed at restoring the economic good fortune of the UK. This for Labour will mean accepting the Conservative deficit reduction programme. This for the Conservatives will mean that the proposed cuts in public expenditure will have to be severely cut back. These two things will mean that taxes will have to go UP. This for Labour must mean an acceptance of reality – 75% tax rates for millionaires do not cut the custard as millionaires are mobile and there are not many of them. The French have discovered this. This means that most of us will find ourselves paying higher taxes.
If they do this the deficit will be cut to a significant degree and then both parties will be out of the woods and will be able to put their own distinctive programmes to the electorate.
In 2020 the UK will be placed outside the EU and into the EEA. This is because ALL members other than Denmark and the UK who negotiated “opt-outs” have to be members of the Eurozone after 2020. This will require the Eurozone to make fiscal and monetary policy and Sovereign indebtedness a sole EU competence. Denmark has indicated it preparedness to give up it’s “opt-out” and become a Eurozone member. This leaves the UK. The obvious and practical “way forward” is to put the UK outside the EU but to have it remain in the EEA – like Norway. This will still mean the UK will still only have limited control over its borders and immigration policy but should – IN THEORY – give it the same control over its fisheries as Norway. In practise it is safe to assume the spineless Europhile politicians at Westminster will allow the Belgians, the French and the Spanish to walk all over them. Thus, FISHING and IMMIGRATION will be the two areas that UKIP will be able to focus their campaigning on after 2020.
Oh…. Yes…. We nearly forgot……. Scottish Sorceress Sturgeon! What of her?
The Scottish Sorceress Sturgeon wishes to secede from the union. Presumably Scotland will seek to enter the EU. This of course will mean that Scots will have to accept the Euro. What does this mean for England? Good times and property price bubbles in Carlisle and Berwick-upon-Tweed!