These lines of John Dryden, Poet Laureate to Charles II from 1668 describe better than can your Editor the growing realisation of what lies ahead for Edward the Unfortunate.
Today’s Guardian newspaper reports: “A new Ipsos Mori poll gave the SNP a 34-point lead in Scotland and showed Labour just 3 points ahead of the Tories, which, according to forecasters, would lead to the SNP winning all but one of the 59 seats in Scotland.”
Yesterday’s desperate antics by Miliband (his audience with Mr Brand) and Cameron (the “Tax Lock” Act) show that both party leaders realise that the most likely outcome on 7th May, is a hung parliament.
It has been commonly stated that the SNP will be potential king makers. In the likely circumstances pertaining after 7th May, it will not be just the SNP however. There will be other potential king makers. There will probably be three Plaid Cymru MPs. There will probably be three Social Democratic and Labour Party MPs. There will be the Greens probably with one MP – Caroline Lucas.
This adds up to 66 MPs. This is commonly placed into the computations using the benchmark of 326 MPs, this being a majority of one, viz: (650 / 2) + 1 = 326.
This however is not quite right. This is because one has to factor in the number of Sinn Féin MPs as these people traditionally do not take their seats. There were five in the last parliament.
It is therefore Most Likely that the parliamentary arithmetic on the morning of Friday, 8th May, 2015 – ironically the 70th anniversary of VE Day – will offer Edward the Unfortunate the keys of No. 10 Downing Street should he be willing to place his head in the noose and govern using the votes of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the SDLP and the Greens.
A question: Will the jubilant Scottish supporters be calling Friday 8th May, 2015 as “Victory in England Day?”
Of course, Edward the Unfortunate will not be in a position to take the decision alone. His colleagues – probably none elected to a Scottish seat – will demand to be involved.
These people will know that whether it is through a formal coalition, a confidence and supply agreement or vote by vote, this will be the case of a dog with four tails (SNP, Plaid Cymru, SDLP, Green) each wagging the dog independently.
Were the UK in trouble free times with little or no sovereign debt and a stable economy, such a government would not be that much of a problem.
However, the UK has a gigantic sovereign debt, a growing deficit and an economy that is hovering just above recession.
The eyes of the UK’s many creditors and the credit rating agencies are upon it. These people are not concerned about how the UK chooses to run its health service or its schools. They are not concerned whether or not Trident is retained or even whether it is henceforth based on the Fal and not the Clyde.
What they ARE concerned about is STABLE COHERENT GOVERNMENT!
This is something they will INSIST UPON!
It has been said by those in the Bullshit Broadcasting Corporation that the negotiations could take weeks. The UK will NOT HAVE that luxury. The markets will demand a speedy outcome.
If the Tories end up on 8th May with something less than 280 MPs and Labour something less than 270 MPs these people will suggest – probably through the offices of Mr Mark Carney – that their preferred outcome is a Grand Coalition as the arithmetic is overwhelming.
This of course will mean the departure of Edward the Unfortunate and Disastrous Dave and their probable replacement by Harriet Harman and Theresa May.
Such an outcome will bring forth the combination of Labour’s public spending plans, the Tories deficit reduction plans and HIGHER TAXES!
You have been warned!
The alternative is below: