In previous articles, this organ has made certain assumptions: that those the British People will elect on 7th May 2015 are sane and rational people who want two things: the best for their country and the best for their party. Naturally, there will be a divergence of opinion amongst them as to what is “best.” For example; for Mr TimothyJames Farron, President of the Liberal Democrats “best” means that over three quarters of the decisions affecting the UK come from Brussels, or Strasbourg, rather than Westminster.
This is why we have been suggesting that there will be a realisation of mutual self interest will pervade the two main parties when faced with the results of 7th May 2015.
What this organ has been drawing the attention of all who read it’s output is illustrated below:As the Reader will see, the UK presently spends One Twenty-fifth (or 8%) of it’s national income on paying the interest on the debt. It is ONLY at this level because of the historically LOW interest rates being charged on it. ANY further significant cut in the UK’s credit rating will cause these rates to rise – an increase which will put the talked about £12 billion of cuts the Tories are said to be planning in the shade.
This is a FACT, not political opinion.
This is why such as the very sensible, Gisela Gschaider Stuart, Labour’s candidate for Birmingham Edgbaston has suggested the “Grand Coalition” that has been the subject of some of this organ’s articles. There is no doubting Gisela Stuart’s passion and commitment to looking after the Welfare of the People, but in her case, this passion and commitment is bolted to a solid grounding in reality.
There are some indications however, that following his less than brilliant performance in last night’s TV hustings, Edward the Unfortunate might be thinking of imitating the hero Odysseus (also known by the Latin name Ulysses) in so far as the siren voices of Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and Natalie Bennett are concerned.
After ordering his men to fill their ears with beeswax (so they could not hear the sirens song) Odysseus ordered his men to leave him tied tightly to the mast, and to keep him tied no matter how much he would beg to be untied. When he heard their beautiful song, he did indeed order his men to untie him but they bound him all the tighter.
Will Edward listen to the sirens and will his fellow MP’s not restrain him?
Of course, given Edward’s strident declarations about not making any deals, such a deal would be very much by stealth, observed in the vote or in the abstention.
Could it be that the lure of office that will be Siren Nicola’s enchanting song will prove too strong a temptation for Edward the Unfortunate to resist?
Such would mean a minority government with Labour completely reliant on SNP support.
Siren’s Nicola’s hand would be on the life support switch for five long years.
In such a case, ANY significant increase in borrowing would be impossible for such would incur an immediate cut in the UK’s credit rating and consequent increase in debt interest charges.
The most Labour could do would be to increase public spending and pay for it by an increase in taxes. Siren Nicola’s price of course would be “Devo-Max” for Scotland and a financial settlement for Scotland for which the term “generous” would be an understatement.
This of course would mean, even more public spending for Scotland but no such tax increase for the Scots.
It is likely that Wales would receive similar favourable treatment.
This of course would leave England.
In such circumstances we can be fairly confident that we would see the end of Disastrous Dave and his replacement by Boris Johnson.
Prime Minister’s Questions would henceforth resemble “Tom Brown’s School Days” with the public school Boris “Flashman” Johnson boxing the comprehensive school Edward “Brown” Miliband about the ears every Wednesday lunchtime. Pity Edward the Unfortunate for he would have to endure FIVE YEARS of this!
Boris “Flashman” Johnson of course may well be luxuriating in the idleness of opposition looking forward to “Buggins’s turn” however the result might be Labour adopting electoral reform. This would be because they would realise that the game for Labour in England as well as Scotland would be well and truly up and that their only chance of saving something from defeat would lie in Proportional Representation.
In these circumstances it is likely that the German Additional member system would be adopted. It is likely that the Tories reasonable demand for equal size (by population) constituencies would be granted but that the number would be cut.
There are currently:
- 533 constituencies in England
- 59 in Scotland
- 40 in Wales, and
- 18 in Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland use PR at the moment so it is likely that the reforms would create 316 constituences viz:
- 266 constituencies in England
- 30 in Scotland
- 20 in Wales
Along with the 316 MPs elected by First Past the Post (as at present) the electorate would have a second ballot paper that would not have a list of candidates but political parties. They would then be able to vote for a party. This would be the use of straight “Party List” proportional representation in a three national constituencies (England (266), Scotland (30) and Wales (20)).
This of course would help UKIP and the Greens.
Edward the Unfortunate may well think this will soften Labour’s fall. However, he should be aware of the danger to Labour posed by this strategy. Any use of the “Party List” system (even in part) encourages the formation of small parties. This is because with 266 seats, it is very easy to get one of two people elected. This will inevitably mean the formation of sectarian parties in England representing specific ethnic and/or faith groups.
This is why the Siren voices of Nicola Sturgeon, Leanne Wood and Natalie Bennett are so dangerous, for just like the sirens of myth, answering their call leads to disaster.