British Gazette readers with a knowledge of matters nautical will realise that the ship above would be in serious difficultly as her topsails are not reefed. Sailing ships, like the electricity generated by wind turbines, are at the mercy of the weather. The ship’s crew have to manage their vessel’s progress by taking in and putting up sail and adjusting the course. They do not have the power to adjust the wind and the sea state.
This is analogous to the present situation with the forthcoming EU referendum. Those engaged on either side of the campaign are in the same position as the crew of that ship. They have to deal with what the conditions throw at them.
Here of course we come up against the first divergence. Whilst the master and crew of the sailing ship accept and understand that they cannot control the sea state and the wind, our politicians actually think they can influence these things. And in the case of poor deluded souls such as Ms Amber Rudd -who thinks we can actually alter the climate – literally!
But back to the EU referendum!
Latest polls put the Leave/Remain figures fairly close and conclude that the referendum will be decided by those who have yet to make up their mind. Further polling analysis concludes that a perceived failure or success obtained by Mr Chameleon will be the deciding factor.
The polls also show that there is a problem.
And it is a BIG ONE.
These polls indicate that immigration is a major factor with 52 percent of respondents thinking this is “very important.” This is of course why Nigel Farage has been banging on about it!
There is just one tiny problem!
No significant changes could be made to the control of our borders for “some years” following BREXIT.
Because the only “doable” alternative to accepting whatever fig leaf Mr Chameleon is handed by Frau Doktor Merkel is re-entry into EFTA and continued membership of the EEA which of course means EXACTLY the same immigration policies as at present!
In other words, poor Nigel is busy boxing himself into a corner!
Clearly, Lord Rose, chairman of the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign does not regard it as his job to point out the error of his way to poor Nigel.
Immigration is a HUGE problem for both sides of course! To continue the focus on how it affects our side however:
Our problem is that we have an electorate that wants immediate solutions to problems. Telling them “we cannot do anything now, but we will be able to in ten years time” simply does not “cut it” with the average voter.
This is of course why the country has such a huge debt! Because voters want their jam today, not tomorrow and politicians (of all parties) have sought to supply this.
Re-entry into EFTA and continued membership of the EEA – AKA “The Norway Option” – will be a MAJOR improvement on what we have now and whatever we will be offered by the Chancellor of Germany, but Nigel is persevering with a policy that he cannot deliver.
The only way we can win this referendum is to attack the fig leaf that will be the “British Option” presented to Mr Chameleon!
Essentially, the smaller the fig leaf the easier our demolition job will be, leaving the Unfortunate Chameleon naked before the voters!
There are signs emanating from the continent however that things may not be heading in a direction that will aid Mr Chameleon.
The former prime minister Lord Stockton famously remarked, “Events, Dear Boy! Events!”
The Franco-German axis is under strain following the Paris outrage. Paris’s aggressive reaction and commitment to taking the war to IS in Syria is worrying the Germans. Then there is the reaction of other EU member states to the migration crisis.
If there is a foreign policy disagreement with Berlin’s western neighbour, there is an even bigger disagreement with her eastern neighbour, Poland.
The new “Eurosceptic” government in Poland has refused point blank to take in any Syrian migrants. The Poles attitude has not been much reported by the Brussels Brainwashing Commissariat – probably to avoid being sued by lawyers for such as Polly Toynbee who would suffer an apoplectic fit were they to inform her that Poland’s government states that Poland is a Christian nation and does not wish to take in any Muslims!
Then there is the irritant of the Polish government’s decision NOT to fly the EU Stars!
Berlin has long accepted that the flag will be rarely flown in the UK, but Poland!
Then there is the issue of the supposed British re-negotiation.
Frau Doktor Merkel is prepared to “do what she can” for Mr Chameleon not just for the financial reason but to prevent the political earthquake that would be BREXIT from happening. However faced with all their problems the Europhile Germans are irritated with Britain. One German bureaucrat remarked:
“Das Europäische Haus ist nach unten brennt und Großbritannien will Zeit verschwenden erneute Anordnung der Möbel!” (The European house is burning down and Britain wants to waste time re-arranging the furniture!)
Our best chance of winning the referendum will be if Mr Chameleon comes back empty handed.
The crucial factor will NOT be Nigel’s reaction however!
Let us face it, the world and his wife (and the British electorate) already knows what Nigel is going to say about it!
The REALLY CRUCIAL reactions will be from such as John Redwood!
We have also to take into account the Nicola Factor: this Scottish lass will be stirring things up in England telling the English that if they have the temerity to vote to leave the EU then Scotland will want to break away.
“You can have Brexit or you can have me and the EU!” she will shout, “But you can’t have me and Brexit!”
IF the Eurosceptic back bench Tory MPs come on side and campaign against the negotiation and state that the “British Option” amounts to no more than a “hill of beans” Mr Chameleon will be in real difficulty.
This is because Mr Chameleon leads a Tory Party that is completely ruthless. If the Tories come to the conclusion that their leader is sailing their ship onto the rocks they will change leader.
You will recall Dear Reader that in yesterday’s article we suggested that this was the start of a period of plotting redolent of the intrigues during the parliament of James II. The knives are being sharpened. We went on to speculate upon the consequences of a win for Mr Chameleon and also a defeat for Mr Chameleon leading to a staged BAD BREXIT DEAL for Britain.
These scenarios were based on Mr Chameleon remaining Prime Minister.
However were Mr Chameleon to loose the vote it is entirely possible – indeed some would say highly likely – that the knives would not only be out for the Unfortunate Chameleon but would be placed in his back in very short order!
This is because following such a defeat there would be only ONE option: Re-entry into EFTA and continued membership of the EEA – AKA “The Norway Option.”
Most importantly of all, The Norway Option has one crucial aspect to it: it would still result in payments to the EU from the UK – the annual payment for EEA membership. Britain’s contribution would result in a saving of up to £5 billion a year on what we pay at present. Politically this would be hugely damaging to the EU cause but with a new Prime Minister (George Osborne or Theresa May) a staged BAD BREXIT DEAL would become impossible and that the Norway Option would have to be offered.
It is entirely possible that the ill stared Comrade Corbyn would be dispatched at the same time as the Unfortunate Chameleon – especially if Theresa May is the new Prime Minster.
Such a scenario however would not prevent the earthquake occurring on the continent of Europe. It is possible that Poland and other states may decide to take up the Norway Option themselves. The effect of this could be very serious for the UK.
Because it has to be understood that the European project has been, is and will be far more a Political project than an Economic one. In circumstances where a Brexit into the Norway Option was followed by others we would see a new Europe.
We would have the European Union that essentially would comprise the present Eurozone and other countries pursuing a Norway Option. This paradoxically would STRENGTHEN the EU not weaken it. It would make it a more cohesive political force and that is something the US State Department in Washington DC DOES NOT WANT!
And who will they bame?
Yes you guessed it!
Those Goddam Limey Sons of Bitches!
The UK’s Permanent Seat with Veto on the Security Council of the UN.
This will occur when the Chinese and the USA tell the UK what is going to happen.
1. France will voluntarily gift it’s Permanent Seat with Veto to the European Union (what is left of it).
2 Those EU member states will enter into an agreement NOT to seek election to the Security Council from the European area.
3. The UK will “voluntarily” gift it’s Permanent Seat with Veto to India.
4. The UK will be eligible for regional elections for temporary membership (without veto) to the Security Council.
This will be a HUGE problem for the new Prime Minister as it will be seen as a HUGE humiliation.
It is almost certain that Argentina would petition the Security Council to issue a resolution compelling Argentina and the UK to enter into negotiations over the future of the Falkland Islands.