Yesterday Friday 8th January started out as a Good Day with the news that my friend Dr. Richard North has managed to have Leave.eu adopt Flexcit as the suggested Brexit plan. But if Dr. North was the Good the slump of Royal Dutch Shell “B” shares to 1,375.50 pence was the Bad. As declared in previous articles, your Editor has shares in this company.
There are however a few lights at the end of the tunnel. It is expected that the takeover by Shell of British Gas will take place at the end of the month. Although more expensive than planed this will help in the medium to long term.
At the root of Shell’s problem is the oil price, reduced demand and over supply.
China’s slowdown has affected others and this has reduced demand for the thick black stuff.
Then there is the over production. In the past OPEC used to regulate production to match demand. This policy has been thrown out of the window by the House of Saud in their quarrels with Iran and Russia. The Saudis are keeping the price low to hurt these two countries in particular – who are particularly affected by the oil price as oil forms so significant a part of their total GDPs.
There is of course fracking – principally in the USA. However it is the “Gulf Price War” that is the principal cause of Shell’s (and other oil companies) misery.
There are signs however that the House of Saud may not be as secure as has been thought.
It is with some incredulity we bring you these reports Dear Reader!
It is also in the Guardian: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/07/saudi-arabia-considers-ipo-national-oil-group-aramco so it must be true!
There are sceptics who suggest that this is a bluff by the House of Saud. They suggest that the kingdom has other options to finance its debt. This is correct. However to parahrase the late and unlamented Saddam Hussain, the selling off of Aramco will be the grandmother of all privatisations. This is because Aramaco INC?/PLC?/AG?/SA?/BV? will be the world’s only company with a market capitalisation in excess of US $ 1 Trillion!
Why would the House of Saud do this?
Herewith some questions that a person might ask: Might they be fearing an overthrow? Could there be an Islamic Republic of Arabia?
If so, were Aramaco to be in the private sector – registered and domiciled outside the kingdom – possibly in the UK? – the former monarch and their family – and it is a very large family – would be living in exile and would have shares in the company.
I am sure the Tories would make them most welcome!
Here is another clue: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-alcohol-guidelines-show-increased-risk-of-cancer
Expect this and future UK governments to take an increasingly stricter stance on alcohol consumption. The justification will be twofold: health and public order. Both are valid reasons. However another reason that will remain hidden is to seek an increasing accommodation with Islam. The arrival here of a LARGE number of Saudi billionaires and Aramaco PLC in the City of London would be a HUGE step towards the Islamification of the UK.