Firstly, we think an apology is necessary to preface today’s article. This is an apology to all those British Gazette readers, who, like your Editor “are of a certain age” and who remember sitting in front of their parent’s valve powered black and white TV’s in eager anticipation for Gerry Anderson’s “Stingray”! – The only salve we can apply to your cringing embarrassment Dear Reader is the remind us all that we were children at the time!
Many British Gazette will have been unhappy at the content of yesterday’s article as it did not paint an optimistic “up beat” picture of an expected successful campaign with “Brexit” at the end of it.
There is a very good reason for this. It is: Notwithstanding the FACT that the Chameleon’s statements declaring the results of his negotiation “legally binding” has been demonstrated to be FALSE and that he is a LIAR and notwithstanding the FACT that in Doctor Richard North’s “Flexcit” proposal supported by such luminaries as Helena Morrissey, the Chief Executive of Newton Investment Management and despite the FACT that the Remainers single, unified campaign, http://www.strongerin.co.uk/ has so far been lacklustre and incompetent, the Brexiteers are characterised by disunity having three separate competing groups - https://leave.eu/ , http://www.betteroffout.net/ and http://grassrootsout.co.uk/ and no clear viable Brexit plan.
Because of this competent commentaries such as Mr David Francis well argued piece here:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/10/heres-what-happens-if-britain-dumps-the-eu/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=*Editors%20Picks fires arrows into the Brexiteer’s case with seeming impunity.
No wonder the Chameleon is quietly confident!
And yet, not all is yet lost! As the polling organisation “You Gov” pointed out on the BBC last night, the danger inherent in the Chameleon’s “Project Fear” tactics is that by being overwhelmingly negative and not painting a positive “motherhood and apple pie” picture of life in a reformed EU, the Chameleon is in danger of “putting people off” with “doom and gloom” and much of the potential “Remain” voters will be that they do not turn out. “You Gov’s” representative then went on to point out to the BBC interviewer that the those supporting Brexit were people who have longed for this opportunity “for years” and “will walk barefoot over broken glass to cast their vote!”
This is confirmed by a demographic analysis of the voters. Of those canvassed it was found that support for Brexit was higher in the older age group – traditionally those people who turn out to vote – and lower in the younger age group – traditionally those people who do not turn out to vote.
There are further vital aspects to take into consideration: after the little matter of being a traitor, the second-most weakest factor in the Chameleon’s case is that he does not have a positive picture to put forward! That is because apart from those in the Liberal Democrat and the Green parties, the majority of voters do not like the EU! Thus he is trapped into putting forward an endless message of “doom and gloom”!
Then of course we have the European migrant crisis!
Over the next 103 days, more and more assorted Afghans, Eritreans, Iraqis, Pakistanis and Syrians will end up in Greece. Most of them will be Muslims. This is going to lead to political instability across the continent of Europe. As can be seen by this report: http://www.mail.com/int/news/world/4200624-nationalist-party-set-gains-3-german-vote.html#.1272-stage-hero1-5
You see, the toxicity of the migrant crisis for the UK is this: many British TV viewers will look at the news reports showing large numbers of insistent persons of middle eastern and Asian origin demanding resettlement in northern Europe! Most of these persons will be obviously Muslim! The women and teenage girls particularly so! We now come to the nub of the issue! There are many many ordinary British persons who will see these “huddled masses” and think the following extremely politically incorrect thought, a thought that if spoken would cause such as Mr Tim Farron to have an apoplectic fit! It is this: “We’ve got far too many Muslims in this country now. We don’t want any more!” Now this is a thought that these persons may communicate to their partners and souses, but it is a thought they will NEVER communicate to their employers or any other person for they would (correctly) assume that such would be regarded as outrageously racist and Islamophobic! Indeed such persons working in the public sector would know that they could loose their job were they to make such thoughts known. That however does not stop these persons from having these thoughts!
Therefore it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the voters vote for Brexit with the leave campaign having spelled out no Plan B!
Now, whilst we cannot predict with any degree of certainty what will happen on Thursday 23rd June 2016. We can with certainty predict what will happen at 08:00AM on Friday 24th June 2016 if Brexit and No Plan “B” (Flexcit in other words) will happen. THIS:
- 08:00AM The London Stock Exchange opens. The market crashes. Banks stocks fall dramatically. Billions are wiped off the FTSE 100 index. The London currency market opens and Sterling falls dramatically.
- Before 11:00AM Mr Mark Carney (for it is He!) announces an immediate hike in Base Rate to 1%
-Before Noon: Prime Minister Cameron will have resigned. The new Prime Minister will be Boris Johnston. Foreign Secretary Hammond will resign as he does not ant to suffer the ignominy of being sacked by Boris. Mr Gove will become Foreign Secretary.
- By 12:30PM The London Stock Exchange is suspended until Monday.
At this point many will feel that Brexit and restoration of National Sovereignty is some two years away! Don’t you believe it! Over the course of the following fortnight, discussions about Brexit will take place between Mr Johnson and Mr Gove in Brussels and the European decision makers, Frau Doktor Merkel and François Hollande. Faced with a Brexit vote, the two European leaders will offer the concessions they did not offer the unfortunate Chameleon – because they did not have to!
Another referendum will then be called. This will offer the British voters two choices:
1. Leave the EU and invoke Article 50 at the earliest opportunity.
2. Put Brexit “on hold” pending implementation of Treaty Change by the other EU member states with Article 50 to be invoked at the earliest opportunity if Treaty Change does not happen. If treaty change happens Brexit is terminated and the UK remains a member of the EU subject to the revised terms and conditions.
This of course will help Boris reunite most of the Tories behind him and demonstrate to the populace that he Boris succeeded where his predecessor failed.
The chances of us winning such a second referendum are slim.
If the British Gazette were forced to make a prediction (and at 103 days it is far too early to call this poll) it would be this: that the fate of Brexit will be decided by the state of chaos in the Aegean Sea and the Balkans. In this again, history has a curious way of repeating itself, as it was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in in Sarajevo on Sunday 28th June 1914 turned out to be a pivotal event in British history.