A recent article in the German daily Die Welt shows the concern of that nation’s political establishment with the prospect of Brexit.
This explains Frau Merkel’s reaction to the British delay in submitting Brexit notification under Article 50. She wants the Europhiles in this country to regroup and reorganise. The battle is not over!
This of course explains the train crash that is the Parliamentary Labour Party! Europhile (New) Labour MP s are deserting Euro-sceptic (Old) Labour Comrade Corbyn because they wish to fight a rearguard action to keep the UK in the EU!
In today’s first article we reproduced Freddy Vachha’s letter to UKIP members and supporters. Freddy asks us to sign the petition to have Nigel Farage appointed as a member of the Brexit negotiating team.
The British Gazette give a qualified endorsement to Freddy’s call. The reason for the qualification that Nigel will or should know that if appointed he is walking into a trap! The clearest evidence of this is the statement of The Right Honourable, The Lord Heseltine, PC, CH. His Lordship has suggested that along with Messrs. Johnson and Gove, Nigel should be sent to negotiate the terms for Brexit. His Lordship has since gone on to make the statement that the terms negotiated should be put to a second referendum. Since this is likely to be two years away there is not going to be a case of voter fatigue. This is of course precisely what the British Gazette predicted in yesterday’s article!
You see, His Lordship is fully aware of something the British Gazette has patiently and persistently pointed out to it’s readers during the campaign: that Doctor Richard North’s Flexcit proposal outlining simultaneous EU withdrawal and EFTA/EEA entry giving seamless continuation of the access to the Single Market is the ONLY acceptable, doable and practical Brexit solution! This of course means accepting the Free Movement of People – although there is a possibility of adjusting this somewhat – the Lichtenstein option.
Any other terms giving the UK – or what is left of it – complete control of immigration policy so Nigel’s beloved “Australian style points based system” can be placed on the statute book involves withdrawal from the Single Market as well as withdrawal from the EU.
This will cause HUGE practical difficulties. This is because much of the necessary bureaucracy governing inter member trade in the single market is handled centrally. Thus member states of the Single Market have lost much of the skills and expertise to handle this themselves. This needs to be re-established and cannot be done overnight. In fact doing it in two years will be a very tall order indeed. This means that any deal negotiated with the EU will have to include a transition arrangement to allow the UK – or what is left of it – to smoothly move outside the single market. There is going to be a price tag attached to this!
There are two real word analogies to this:
Many well to do folk have as a form of investment a modest house they let out to tenants. Often these houses are purchased for cash at property auctions and are often repossessed houses. After commissioning a builder, decorator, electrician and plumber (Polish?) to put the property into sufficient good order to let out, they then put the property out to let. In most cases they do this via a letting agent – often an estate agent. As well as finding a tenant, the letting agent deals with all the paperwork and also deals with the tenant and collects the rent. For this they generally take a commission up to 10%. Some individuals – generally with more than one property – undertake these tasks themselves and it becomes a little business. Other’s prefer retirement and leave it in the hands of estate agents.
The other real world analogy can often be the tradesmen contracted to undertake the repairs and refurbishment of the said properties. Many such fellows are practical men who are “very good with their hands” but will admit that they are “not very good with the paperwork”. Many of these fine fellows will use a management system known as “the cardboard box.” This is the receptacle into which is placed all bills and receipts and such like. At the end of the year they deliver this to their accountants who then make sense of it all and arrange for the taxman to receive his share of the earnings.
This country faces the humiliating prospect of a similar transitional arrangement governing EU trade with the EU upon Brexit! We assume transitional as we assume that no self respecting sovereign state will accept such an arrangement as permanent!
This of course demonstrates Nigel’s dilemma! The Brexit referendum was largely won on the issue of immigration! It was also won – as the British Gazette also pointed out – in Labour’s heartlands of the white working class. Which of course was why Comrade Corbyn was not a happy bunny throughout the campaign! This was why the assassination of the late Mrs “Jo” Cox threatened the whole campaign and why the British Gazette called the vote for the Remainians.
Sadly, these people did not vote over the issue of sovereignty. Or the issue or world trade. They voted Brexit as they were told that by doing so their employment prospects and wages would improve! Understand this: Flexcit WILL NOT improve these good folks lot! Understand this: The Single Market helps the City of London. This Single Market is wonderful for the wives of bankers and stockbrokers of Weybridge as the cost of au-pairs, cleaners and gardeners is low and the supply plentiful. Flexcit will allow the continuation of this state of afairs.
Then we (Brexiteers) have another problem. This is shown in the chart below (click on image for full size):You will note there is a clear correlation between age and voting intention. The younger the voter the more likely they are to have voted Remain, the older the voter they are to have voted Leave.
This is GOOD NEWS for the Remainians and BAD NEWS for the Brexiteers. This is because the Remainians have the future. Thus it can be said that there were two other factors that cause the Brexiteers to win the vote of the 23rd June 2016:
1. The year the vote was held. Were the vote to have been held later more Leave voters would have died before they were able to vote and more young people would have reached the age of 18 and be able to vote.
2. The age profile of voter turnout. Overall, there was a 72% turnout. Of the 18 to 24 age group only 30% turned out and voted. This demonstrates that the older folk turned out in numbers significantly in excess of 72%!
Now we have to address the issue of the SNP.
Nicola Sturgeon will be allowed to meet and talk to EU officials. It is highly unlikely that she will be able to discuss much with elected national politicians. This is because of the problems of Spain. They will however be just as keen as she is to keep the UK in the EU.
Given what is now going on in the Labour Party, it is now the opinion of the British Gazette we could see big political developments in Westminster ahead. For these reasons:
A majority of Tory MPs are Europhile.
The vast majority of Labour MPs are Europhile
ALL Liberal Democrat MPs are Europhile.
ALL SNP MPs are Europhile.
Most MPs do not want Brexit!
However ALL will admit that the referendum vote MUST be respected.
The Europhile MPs are likely to argue that holding BINDING referendum on the final withdrawal agreement is democracy in action and the first vote is not being disrespected.
Whilst a majority of Tory MPs are Europhile, this cannot be said of Tory activists! The minority of Euro-sceptic Tory MPs will know that a second binding referendum held in two years time is likely to be lost.
Many of the Euro-sceptic Tory MPs and many Tory activists will be aghast at the idea of a second referendum. They will wish to vote against it. When called upon to vote they will oppose it. Given the numbers of Europhile MPs, such a Bill will likely become and Act. It is likely that any such Bill would be initiated quite soon as they would want it in place before formal notification of Brexit via Article 50 is submitted. This is because all sides need to be negotiating in full knowledge that any terms will be subject to a binding referendum. It is diplomatically unacceptable to do otherwise.
The reader can bet their bottom dollar that the large financial institutions and the CBI will demanding this from the government!
Now let us turn to the train crash which is the Parliamentary Labour Party! Since your Editor counts Piers Corbyn – Jeremy’s bother – as a friend he feels that he is intruding on private grief but will continue nevertheless.
The Labour Party is a party which not only espouses democracy, it also practises it! This notwithstanding the fact that it is currently prepared to tolerate UK membership of the EU! Dear old Comrade Corbyn is quite insistent that if challenged for the leadership his name will be on the ballot. We have no doubt that were an election to be held Jeremy would win and win well. He has the votes of most activists. This of course would leave the “New” “Blairite” Labour MPs in a quandary. Such MPs are terrified (and rightly so) of being deselected as MPs. Their constituency Labour parties will be keen to elect a true fellow traveller of Comrade Corbyn. In 2020 expect the Labour Party to have shifted far to the left. Few – if any – of the MPs who are unhappy with Comrade Corbyn’s leadership will be Labour Party candidates in that election.
As stated, the vast majority of Labour MPs are Europhile. They are also essentially Blairite. They will realise that their parliamentary careers will come to an end if they remain in the Labour Party.
Because of these seismic movements in the British political firmament, the British Gazette foresees the possibility of a dramatic change in the British political system.
Much of the pressure for this is likely to be from an outside source: Germany!
You can bet your second from bottom dollar that the German political establishment greeted the Brexit referendum and the result with horror. And anger.
The reason for their anger was they will (correctly) regard the whole of their European Project has been put in jeopardy by what they (correctly) perceive to be a broken electoral system. In the UK the system used for sending MPs to the Commons is known as “the First Past the Post (FPP) system.” That is the accepted term across the world by those who deal with and study electoral systems. In the USA it is commonly known by another name: the “Two Party system.” This is because FPP can only fairly deal with two candidates. More than two the system breaks down and results in the glaring inadequacies long pointed out by the Liberals – now Liberal Democrats – and latterly UKIP.
The Germans are NOT happy bunnies. German politicians have openly complained that the EU’s future has been put in jeopardy by the Chameleon’s problems with his own Euro-sceptic MPs and UKIP.
German politicians also look to the age profile of the Brexit voters and despair that had such a referendum been held a few years in the future the result would have been different. That the UK was on the cusp of becoming dramatically less Euro-sceptic (old people dying/teenagers reaching age 18) when the Brexit vote was held. They put all the blame on the broken British FPP system.
If the Tory Euro-sceptic MPs break away and join UKIP – not impossible – the Tory government will loose it’s majority. We could well see large numbers of Labour MPs break away and join the Liberal Democrats. We could find that a new coalition government would be formed without a General Election. The so called Government of National Unity. It would be composed of Europhile Tories, ex Labour MPs, Lib Dem MPs. It would have the support of the SNP on a confidence and supply basis. It may well – the Lib Dems are likely to argue for this – legislate to change the electoral system – without a referendum arguing that there was a limit to the number of referendums it was reasonable to put to the voters – such a system would either be the additional member system as used in Scotland and Wales or possibly STV.
The motivation behind this will again be Germany. Germany will insist that if the Europhiles want the deal that was on offer in the referendum – the Chameleon’s so called binding agreement – then proportional representation will have to be on the British statute book as Germany will NOT want to go through such political trauma again!
Thus in future we could see a House of Commons made up of MPs from a socialist party, a green party, a centre left party, a centre right party and a laissez-faire “neo-con” party. There would be coalition governments in future.