Brexiteers in UKIP are beginning to have some parties. So they should. Many people put in a lot of effort, energy, money and time into achieving the result they achieved. Many – especially in UKIP – have not been happy with the British Gazette’s reporting and commentary throughout the campaign. Suffice it to say, your Editor knows how Jeremy Corbyn feels!
Throughout this campaign this organ has persisted with it’s endorsement of Doctor Richard North’s Flexcit proposal. Doctor North has attentively being updating the proposal and the latest version addresses the Freedom of Movement and discusses the Liechtenstein arrangement. Readers wanting a copy (Free of charge) can email or contact the Editor via the contact page on this website disclosing their email address and we will email a .PDF copy to you. NB: It is 429 pages of A4 and is therefore quite a weighty tome.
The Associated Press correspondent in Brussels has filed a report today which reports:
“….Jean-Claude Juncker and other European leaders insisted they won’t begin any talks until Britain invokes the EU Constitution’s Article 50, which sets in motion a two-year process to split. In an unprecedented emergency session of the EU parliament, called after Britain voted Thursday to leave the union, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker demanded that Britain clarify its future.
“I want the U.K. to clarify its position. Not today, not tomorrow at 9 a.m., but soon,” he told lawmakers. “We cannot allow ourselves to remain in a prolonged period of uncertainty.” Juncker said he had banned his policy commissioners from holding any secret talks with Britain on its future until London triggers the exit clause.
“No notification. No negotiation,” he said to resounding applause……”
Associated Press’s correspondent David Rising in Berlin reported that Frau Merkel stated:
“…..Whoever wants to leave this family cannot expect to have no more obligations but to keep privileges,” she said. “We will ensure that the negotiations are not carried out with the principle of cherry picking……”
It must also be noted that Frau Merkel has ruled out a “Norway type deal” for the UK. The British Gazette would suggest that the EU has no power to do this. This is because granting EEA status is something that any EFTA member can acquire if it meets already established requirements. Thus, if EFTA accepts the UK as a member, EEA and Single Market entry is assured. Which is one of the reasons why the British Gazette has advocated it!
It is therefore becoming increasingly clear that there is a strategy emerging here.
Let us reprise ourselves of some FACTS:
- Much bullshit was shovelled by certain members of the Leave side during the campaign.
- The referendum was won by the Leave side because of unprecedented numbers of E, D, C2 and C1 voters turning out on Thursday 23rd June 2016 to vote Leave. These good folk voted primarily on the issue of unchecked, uncontrolled, unlimited EU immigration. This is because this has depressed their wages and/or reduced their job prospects! Many of these good folk had not voted before or had not voted in many years.
This is a possible deal the UK might be handed by the EU:
WTO+ (World Trade Organisation, Plus).
What then is WTO+?
THIS: World Trade Association default terms of trade with bureaucratic assistance. As has been pointed out by both Doctor North and the British Gazette, the UK CANNOT practically proceed from full EU (Single Market, non Eurozone) membership to WTO default in two years because two years is not enough time in which to out together the bureaucracy required for EU export/import trade. This is because this is now handled by Brussels as part of the Single Market. However, the EU would likely offer the UK the use of its own bureaucracy for a transitional period. This is because it is clearly in the interests of both the EU and the UK that this should be so. This is because the economic results for the UK would be catastrophic were it to try and “go it alone”. As has repeatedly been pointed out by such as Nigel Farage, the EU – in particular Germany – exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU. It is their interests that the UK does not become a victim of economic collapse. The reader can be quite confident that this danger features prominently in the minds of most German politicians as they know only too well what can happen if a country undergoes economic collapse!
Under this arrangement the UK would have upon Brexit it’s full sovereignty restored. It would also experience the effects of not being in the Single Market. This would include but not limited to a reduction of financial service activity in the City of London. Certain manufacturers with operations specifically located in the UK because of Single Market membership will being being the process of moving their operations elsewhere.
This is not to say WTO+ would be without any advantages. The UK would be freed of all EU requirements – although exporters would have to conform to EU standards – as do Chinese and Japanese exporters. The UK could impose migration controls. This would relieve the pressure on the infrastructure and lower house prices and rents – a FACT that those E, D, C2 and C1 Brexit voters would welcome.
There is another advantage to WTO+ and it is a crucial one: The availability to use (for a fee- payable by the UK based importer/exporter) the EU bureaucracy. As previously pointed out, the lack of and the time needed to put in place a functioning bureaucracy to deal with UK – EU export/import trade is a MAJOR factor limiting the UK’s ability to exercise this option – which comes with the benefit that UKIP and those in such campaign groups as the British Constitution Group attach so much importance to – restoration of full sovereignty. It would enable the UK to opt for WTO default and allow it to put in place it’s own domestic bureaucracy at a more leisurely pace.
It would also allow for a rapid deal. The use of the EU’s bureaucracy would allow for a Brexit in well under two years. As has been clear, the EU wants Brexit to take place ASAP. This is because the market turbulence is affecting them as well as us!
Then of course there is the option of “No Brexit”. Such a deal is NOT automatic. When Article 50 is submitted, some state the process is unstoppable. We would suggest that if ALL the parties agreed the process could be halted. You can bet your bottom Euro that this will be at the very front of the mind of Ms Nicola Sturgeon!
It is in fact the issue of Scottish independence which will be concentrating the minds of certain EU politicians wonderfully. Most of these politicians will be Spanish. This is because Brexit raises FOUR areas of great concern to Spanish politicians.
1. Breakup of the UK. The Spanish do not want this! This is because Spain has similar problems of it’s own!
2. Fish. The Spanish do not want to loose access to the UK’s fishing grounds!
3. Expatriate Britons permanently resident in Spain. Spain benefits from this.
4. Gibraltar. This is a powder keg most sensible Spaniards to not want to put a match to!
Understand this: Spain does not want the UK to leave the EU.
Then we have the USA.
During the campaign the President of the USA did a most extraordinary thing. He went “on the stump” in an election campaign in a (to him) foreign country! When told of the President’s plans the professional diplomats at the US State Dept. would have had kittens! “This is not done!” they would have shouted in unison. The reason why President Obama undertook such an extraordinary trip was because the USA was faced with the collapse of a central aspect of US Foreign Policy since the 1950s. That is UK membership of the European Community/European Economic Community/European Union. Now that long standing policy looks set to end with Brexit.
The US State Dept. will firmly be of the opinion that it has invested far too much for far too long without at least making an attempt to salvage the situation. This is why US Secretary of State John Kerry is making the rounds in Europe.
Apart from Jean-Claude Juncker, there are many who will want these negotiations concluded quickly. Many will be in the City of London who will be desperate to see the country returned into the EU’s fold. Then there are major employers such as Nissan, BMW and Volkswagen.