• Brexit: Negotiating with the Hydra!

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    Above, a modern and imaginative portrayal of the Lernaean Hydra (or Hydra of Lerna) generally known simply as the Hydra. The Hydra was a serpentine water monster in Greek and Roman mythology. Its lair was the lake of Lerna in the Argolid, which was also the site of the myth of the Danaids. Lerna was reputed to be an entrance to the Underworld and archaeology has established it as a sacred site older than Mycenaean Argos.

    The British Gazette and it’s Editor has come under a great deal of criticism for not supporting Andrea Leadsom in the recent Tory leadership contest. Even more excoriation was heaped when we endorsed the Remainian Mrs May for the post!

    This organ endorsed Mrs May for one important reason: Competence. Of all the candidates, she was by far the most competent and if there was ever a time more inappropriate to “learning on the job” than the present time, we would suggest when Prime Minister Churchill took over from Prime Minister Chamberlain back in 1940.

    This is because the UK is at some point within the next twelve months, likely to enter negotiations under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

    Now let us face a FACT – and an unpalatable one at that!

    Article 50 was drafted by Europhile federalist politicians and Brussels bureaucrats to make things difficult for any member state wishing to withdraw from the European Union. Most of the cards are marked. The negotiating power is with the EU NOT the UK. This is due in large part to the two year time-scale by which if no agreement is reached the UK will find itself outside the EU in any event!

    This is something many in UKIP appear to regard as not a problem!

    Let us put the sheer naivety of this assumption into a proper perspective.

    Many of us will know of a friend or a family member who has or is suffering from cancer in one of it’s many forms. They might even have suffered or are suffering themselves. Chemotherapy is commonly used by doctors to treat cancer. This is NEVER pleasant! Anybody who thinks otherwise is clearly not living on Planet Earth!

    Were the UK to find itself outside the EU without an agreement the results would be catastrophic. The UK has become intricately enmeshed into the EU’s “ever closer union” and extrapolating itself to what Nigel Farage woefully understates as the “worst case scenario” – WTO default and no agreement – would wreck the UK economy. This would not happen overnight however. As the two year clock ticks down to say 3 months – were there no agreement the markets would begin to panic. The falls in the value of UK equities and Sterling seen in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote would pale into insignificance in comparison!

    The problem we have is that in the EU we are not dealing with a single entity. It is a twenty seven headed monster a real world Hydra of Lerna! Some of those heads like Ireland will be favourably disposed towards the UK. Then there will be the French and Spain determined to “Make Britain pay!” The Germans – the ringleaders – will attempt to broker a compromise.

    This is why early “pre-negotiation negotiations” are so desirable. And why putting off Article 50 submission is essential until the UK government under Mrs May has worked out a proper negotiating strategy and knows what it wants to achieve!

    Remember the EU wants to discourage other member states from following the UK’s example!

    Doctor Richard North suggests that immediately following Article 50 submission and the start of formal talks the UK should insist right at the start that the two year time period be extended. This of course will require unanimity of all twenty seven states. The idea is to introduce a five year period which would largely remove the negotiating advantage that the two year period gives the EU. It is obvious that certain states will object!

    This is why FLEXCIT authored by Doctor North – with assistance from others – a work that has been undertaken these past three years – is so important for it is FLEXCIT that provides the one and only doable Brexit route! Availing ourselves terms that have already been agreed with other nation states – Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway removes a huge number of obstacles.

    Be under no doubt, the French and the Spanish will still object. The Spanish in particular will dig in their heels on the issue of fishing!

    The UK will need a powerful ally. An ally who can put REAL PRESSURE on recalcitrant EU member states. This ally is the USA. After all, it is the USA that badgered and bullied the UK into becoming a member of the Common Market in the first place!

    They helped get is into this hole. It therefore stands to reason that they should help us dig ourselves out of it!

    It is almost certain that the mandarins at the Foreign Office have been and are in contact with their opposite numbers at the Department of state in Washington DC!

    It is clear that the US State Dept. will be wanting to retrieve something out of the “train crash” they regard as Brexit. To the State Dept. Flexcit giving as it does EEA/Single Market membership is the obvious and only option.

    We will now turn our attention to UKIP and it;s role in this:
    Freddy Vachha, UKIP Regional Chairman in London has sent out an email stating: “If a Conservative government fails to deliver a Brexit Max, the Cons will be severely punished at the ballot box… and this mightn’t be all that far away.”

    For the most part, Freddy is not wrong! He is however wrong in a couple of senses. His use of the conjunction “If” is completely wrong. This is because what Freddy defines as “Brexit Max” (Single Market membership with near zero contribution and NO Free Movement of People) is impossible to achieve. The correct word Freddy should have used was “When” – as a conjunction not an adverb.

    This is of course something that Mrs May may (no pun intended) have already realised. That large numbers of the electorate voted Leave because they were desirous of seeing a halt to EU immigration that was having a depressing effect on their wages and employment prospects! Mrs May will also be aware than most of these voters will be from socio-economic groups E, D, C2 and C1 and would normally be Labour voters.

    Freddy is also wrong in his supposition that the Tories will be punished for failing to deliver “Brexit Max” should there be an early general election! If by early he means prior to sub mission of Article 50, then Mrs May and her party cannot be punished for failing to deliver on negotiations which have yet to start!

    Now let us address Freddy’s statement that a general election “mightn’t be all that far away”.

    This is true. There is a possibility – but only a possibility – that an early (pre Article 50 submission) election may take place. Freddy has to consider however one thing; that turkeys do not generally vote for Christmas!

    If Comrade Corbyn survives the plotting and scheming against him and remains leader of the Labour Party, Labour is in no position to call for a general election! The chaos caused might be enough to tempt Mrs May into declaring a quick opportunist election. Mrs May’s working majority is not large and over five years could through “natural wastage” be reduced to zero!

    Mrs May is a cautious and prudent woman and not the gambler her predecessor was! But then Mrs may is not a descendant of the House of Hanover and we all know the problems that family had with the card table!

    Notwithstanding Mrs May’s natural caution, should Comrade Corbyn continue in office, Labour’s disarray may prove too much of a temptation to avoid. If Comrade Corbyn is ousted by finding himself unable to stand as a candidate and Angela Eagle (or another Labour MP) is elected Leader of the Opposition the situation for Mrs May and Brexit becomes dangerous as the Parliamentary Labour Party will have effectively divorced themselves from many of their their activists and they will likely collaborate with the Liberal Democrats to form a de-capitation pact and will seek to conspire with Europhile Tories to bring about a general election with the aim of stopping Brexit and introducing some form of PR.

    Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that Mr Justice Cranston, has set 19th July for a preliminary hearing of the judicial review challenge brought on behalf of the British citizen Deir Dos Santos vis-à-vis Article 50 submission.
    GOTO: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/08/legal-attempt-prevent-brexit-preliminary-hearing-article-50

    • All the more reason to repeal 1972 European Communities Act, the lesser of 2 evils ?

    • I am a regular reader and occasional contributor of comments to this blog. This blog either has a very low readership or most of it’s readers don’t care to make comments. Whatever. Your comment Stuart Guppy has got to be one of the most imbecilic of all time. Did you submit is as a joke or are you really that much of a complete moron?

      Repeal of the 1972 European Communities Act to end the political union with the EU would result in the economic and financial collapse of the UK. It would be unilaterally breaking it’s treaty obligations with terrible consequences. The UK’s reputation would be in tatters as it renders itself an international pariah that can’t be relied upon to meet its obligations. The UK’s credit rating would be set at junk status and the cost of its huge sovereign debt would multiply several fold and take up most of current public expenditure.

      Crucially, repeal of the 1972 Act would be a venture of domestic law only. The UK’s treaty obligations would remain intact, thus failure to live up to them would be actionable. So, while we are entangled in a very messy and destructive political and legal dispute with the EU we would be trading under WTO rules only, having broken our treaty obligations and failed to make any specific trading arrangements.

      Furthermore because the UK has no machinery to handle WTO trade with the EU this would have to be put in place and that cannot be done overnight. It would take a few years. I seem to remember that this blog has suggested the EU might offer its resources in a trade secretariat role. Well ECA repeal would scotch that!

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