I learned something a month or so ago. It was part of a sermon during Sunday morning service in the local parish church. This was the origin of the phrase… “Being led up the garden path.” In “the old days”, country folk would keep a pig. That pig would be led up the garden path regularly. It would be led into an enclosure where it would there would be food. Thus the pig got used to being led up the garden path and going into the enclosure. This made it easier to slaughter when the time came for it to be slaughtered.
These are perilous times for those patriots desirous of restoring sovereignty to the formerly sovereign United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Chairman May has openly declared that “Brexit means Brexit” and yet there is a real danger – indeed probability that the UK may remain in the grasp of the EU.
There is no doubt that the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson is a very intelligent and able man but he is also deeply flawed. It is not his intellect that is open to question but as the late Doctor Martin Luther-King once opined, “the content of his character.” Deficiencies also apply to the new “Brexit Minister” Mr David Davis.
Victory in the recent referendum campaign offers the Eurorealist community in the UK a real possibility of achieving what many have campaigned for since before the first referendum on “Common Market” membership in 1975.
It would be a tragedy if we allowed this one time opportunity to be taken from us, but it so easily could be!
To avoid this dreadful possibility we have to understand precisely our present position.
This means facing FACTS. FACTS are FACTS. We may not like them but not liking them does not change them!
Until we can face these FACTS and accept them for what they are, we cannot proceed down the road to success.
1. The Leave campaign won by “promising” something that cannot immediately or with any degree of certainty be delivered. This is a radical reduction in immigration by the setting up of UKIP’s “Australian style points based system”.
2. The referendum was won in Labour’s northern heartlands where many E, D, C2 and C1 voters turned out to vote Leave because they wanted to see immigration cut as it they believe it [immigration] is depressing their wages and hindering their employment prospects.
3. There are only two possible alternatives for Brexit. One is the one described as “Hobson’s choice” by the British Gazette – Doctor Richard North’s (and others) Flexcit. The other is WTO with the EU providing the necessary bureaucracy – for a fee for a transitional period.
NB: Because this latter option is economically and politically unacceptable, it can be regarded as not viable. Yet this option may in fact be the one on offer to the British People – with the merciful option of voting NOT to leave the EU!
4. The problem with Flexcit is POLITICAL – not economic or practical. Whilst the Lichtenstein clauses allow some control of EEA immigration, they cannot be regarded as the same as UKIP’s “Australian style points based system”. This means that if Flexcit is the option the UK’s negotiators are pursuing the Remainians (Labour) and the Remainiacs (Liberal Democrats) will loudly and persistently point this out to those E, D, C2 and C1 voters – who will of course object! In other words, if Brexit is to be achieved it is going to be hailed as a “sell out”.
All those who would label themselves as “Brexiteers” HAVE to accept the above facts.
If you cannot, do not waste your time or electricity be reading any further!
Therefore, to achieve Brexit, at some point the UK’s negotiators HAVE to accept and adopt Flexcit.
We now turn our attention to UKIP and what UKIP should do now.
The FIRST thing to do is to realise that what they derisively term “Brexit Lite” – Flexcit – is the ONLY acceptable way of leaving the EU and that their beloved “Brexit Max” – effectively WTO default – will require the transitional arrangements referred to above and will be economically limiting to the UK.
In other words, ALL UKIP members have a choice and it is this: Accept and support Flexcit or accept that the UK will remain a member of the EU. It is that simple and straightforward.
As for “Brexit Max” something along these lines MIGHT be available at some point AFTER leaving the EU on Flexcit’s (“Brexit Lite”) terms.
Now the Editor knows that there will be some “Kippers” that even after reading this far will still not be able to accept what we state. So let us try and explain it by analogy:
If one’s local mainline railway station is Penzance and one desires to travel to London by train, then one will board the train at Penzance and get off at London Paddington. During the journey the train will stop at Plymouth. Those members of UKIP insisting on “Brexit Max” are like the passenger at the ticket office at Penzance station declaring that they wish to travel by train from Penzance to London but insist that the train stop at Bideford and not Plymouth! The ticket staff will point out that this is not possible and that trains run on railway tracks and that there is no railway track between Penzance and Bideford and Bideford and London.
So, having accepted that Flexcit is the ONLY Brexit path and that many voters (E, D, C2 and C1) will shout “Sell out!” we have to decide HOW we can best achieve Brexit.
The FIRST task is to persuade the three monkeys (Messrs. Johnson, Davis & Fox) to adopt and accept Flexcit. Until “the three monkeys” do this then Brexit is getting nowhere!
UKIP is however in a UNIQUE position to assist this. Were UKIP to state that “Brexit Max” was UKIP’s ultimate goal but could not be achieved until some time after “Brexit Lite” – which they declare and accept is Flexcit – then this will in a curious way be UKIP shooting it’s own Fox!
This is because Labour Party activists will waste no time whatsoever in communicating this to their Labour heartlands how those dreadful so and sos at UKIP have betrayed the trust all those E, D, C2 and C1 voters placed in them!
This of course will effectively put the kibosh on UKIP’s hopes in the Labour heartlands!
This of course will not worry the Tories so much as they have no chance of winning these seats from Labour anyway!
Why should UKIP make this sacrifice?
For two reasons:
1. It will help achieve Brexit – UKIP’s raison d’être.
2. Under the First Past the Post system the odds were against UKIP winning the seats anyway.
If UKIP accept Flexcit, it will put strong pressure on the three monkeys to do likewise.
It is probable that IF – and it is a big if – the three monkeys accept Flexcit it will only be AFTER negotiations have formerly started and that Article 50 has been initiated by the UK.
Chairman May has stated that Article 50 is not going to be initiated this year.
It is likely that she will want to take advantage of the litigation being pursued as this presents a wonderful excuse for delay. When the Supreme Court finally rules that an Act of Parliament is required it will be put through. The Tories have a slim majority of twelve. The British Gazette now expects that the legal process will end in January 2017 and that a Bill to enact submission of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will form part of the Queen’s Speech. We expect enactment by the end of March 2017 and this along with an election budget (lots of give-a-ways and tax cuts!) will be the springboard for Chairman May to obtain her own mandate from the British People. In other words a May election timed with the local elections.
Chairman May will go to the country on the basis that she has delivered what she said she would deliver: Brexit as once Article 50 activated Brexit is unstoppable – unless there is a specific clause as part of the agreement to halt the process.
In the circumstances where Article 50 has been activated and a general election called, it is AS CLEAR AS DAY what the position of the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrat Party will be: an instance of a “reversion clause” – to halt Brexit, this to be made subject to a second referendum. In other words the final Brexit terms will be put to the British People.
It is important that the Tories OPPOSE this! This for the OBVIOUS reason that the EU will have NO INCENTIVE to offer anything but the most abject and derisory of terms to the UK in an attempt to coerce the UK electorate into remaining in the EU’s fold!
Any person who CANNOT see this has a brain with less than two functioning POLITICAL brain cells!
Thus the Tories would – in the circumstances where they do not offer a second referendum at the end of the process – declare that a vote for the Tories is a vote for Brexit and that this manifesto commitment and a resulting successful [for them] the general election result would be their democratic mandate to enact Brexit.
This is why it is SO important for the Tories to adopt Flexcit and for UKIP to put the kibosh on it’s own chances by adopting and accepting it as well! The simple fact of the matter is that the people who gave us the victory on 23rd June 2016 (E, D, C2 and C1 voters) are unlikely to vote Tory anyway and that those well to do voters (A, B) who do vote Tory are not going to be too upset about the lack of UKIP’s “Australian style points based system” as they do quite well out of it insofar as the plentiful supply of au-pairs, cleaners, gardeners and flower pickers benefits them!
The Tories will have a HUGE problem in not offering a second referendum for most British voters do not possess two POLITICAL brain cells! They have a hundred billion brain cells but not those of the political variety! To them, the option of a second “deciding” referendum will seem attractive.
The very LAST thing the Tories will need in these circumstances is some idiot from UKIP putting up against them!
Now there is another FACT that those in UKIP have to face. This is that the next general election (either 4th or 11th May 2017) will be fought under the First Past the post system and thus to have two Brexit parties fighting each other can only benefit the Liberal Democrats and Labour!
UKIP have NOTHING to gain and EVERYTHING to loose by putting up candidates against the Tories!
Any UKIP member who CANNOT see this has a brain with less than two functioning POLITICAL brain cells!