• How to stuff a turkey.

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    Above, Martha Stewart (of Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, New York) demonstrates how to stuff a turkey.

    Today’s Guardian demonstrates the newspaper is doing half a job. That is to say reporting NEWS.
    That it has achieved this is demonstrated by the following new report: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/27/nissan-to-make-new-qashqai-and-x-trail-models-in-britain
    This is undoubtedly GOOD NEWS. For two reasons:
    1. The obvious benefit for the economy of Sunderland in particular and Northumberland generally.
    2. That despite indications to the contrary, HMG appears to have accepted Brexit reality AKA Flexcit. Were this NOT the case, Nissan would NOT have made the announcement they have.

    Of course, one cannot have too much of a good thing and the Guardian therefore reported a NOT NEWS story: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/26/theresa-may-under-fire-following-leaked-brexit-recording?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=196659&subid=15907465&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
    The above is NOT NEWS! Mrs May campaigned to have the UK Remain in the EU. To paraphrase the late Marilyn “Mandy” Rice-Davies said; “She would [have said that then], wouldn’t she?”

    Sadly however, the mainstream British political establishment (the Tories, anti-Corbyn Labourites, Lib-Dems and many in UKIP) have only dug themselves into a hole of their own making and some are realising that it is going to be a very muddy and clothes ruining business to crawl out of the hole!

    Whilst it is clear beyond peradventure that the political parties canvas and focus group data show that many Leave voters wanted Mr Farage’s, “Australian style points based……”, no more migrants, £350m day for the NHS, scrapping of all EU directives and regulations &C…… and voted accordingly, there was something else in play as well.

    The British Gazette feels it was this: The knowledge possessed by many Britons across the cultural, economic, ethnic, political, religious and social spectrum that British ministers have in the past “gone to Europe” promising that they will come back with a good deal only to listen to Radio and TV reports that appear to show the opposite: that British ministers have been given the run around by the other EU politicians.

    They are of course correct!

    The organ believes that many Britons who voted LEAVE voted because they were well and truly fed up with this sad state of affairs!

    Sadly however, this organ fears that this is NOT going to change!

    The news that Nissan is planning on making further investments in the UK demonstrates that Mrs May realises that she has to deliver a Brexit that does not crash the economy and is therefore trying to figure out a way of drinking the hemlock in the chalice Mr Farage handed her whilst remaining in good health afterwards!

    The danger is of course contained in that the ticking clock of Article 50.

    A comparative analogy of Dr. Johnson’s famous “two weeks” and Article 50’s two years is most apposite here.

    Imagine if you will Dear Reader the invocation of Article 50 as your appearance before a judge of old and he delivers the sentence; “…that you be taken from this court to a place of execution, where you will be hanged by the neck until the life in you is extinguished. May Almighty God have mercy on your soul.” That in your condemned cell you await the outcome of your appeal to a higher judge will over turn the conviction and that you will walk from that cell a free person.

    Whilst many Ukippers seem blissfully unaware of the grave danger posed by invoking Article 50, many Remainers and Remainiacs are fully aware of the potential consequences and some have referred to invoking Article 50 as an economic suicide note. Their analogy is a good one for whilst a suicide note is not traditionally the instrument that terminates the writer’s life, in this case, it potentially would be. This is because Article 50 sets in train a series of events that once invoked, cannot be stopped! Therefore, like the man committing suicide by leaping from a tall building, it is too late to change your mind once in the invisible hands of gravity!

    Now of course, none of the UK’s [sane] politicians or any of the [sane] politicians in the other 27 member states want the UK to crash out of the EU without an agreement. The danger – and it is VERY REAL – lies in the politicians demanding concessions and running out of time. That they will play the game of brinkmanship and come a cropper!

    The BEST CASE SCENARIO is this: The UK presents FLEXCIT (aka Norway Option) on the negotiating table and ALL 27 EU members agree to it. Getting ALL 27 EU members to agree however is NOT the end of proceedings! This is because that whilst this particular collective decision can be reached by QMV, the agreement obtained then requires TREATY CHANGE.

    This means that notwithstanding the FACT that Article 50 has been invoked, the new relationship requires NEW TREATY and this requires the agreement of all parties and ratification – which given some states have referenda is NOT CERTAIN.

    This then is the danger posed by invoking Article 50. This is because Article 50 is a notice of severance. It does ONE thing and ONE thing only: it severs the relationship the server has with the EU. Nothing more!

    Thus, AFTER the UK has reached agreement with the other 27 EU members, those members have then to draw up and ratify the NEW TREATY.

    It is HIGHLY unlikely that this can be done in 2 years.

    Norway and Iceland both have full sovereign control of their fisheries. Belgium, France and Spain are NOT going to concede this!

    This of course will not be the only area where the EU will demand a kilogramme or two of British flesh!

    Even working on this BEST CASE SCENARIO, we fear there will be the diplomatic equivalent of a game of “chicken” – two drivers in two cars on a collision course each driver determined for the other to give way and be the “chicken”. ANY attempt to disguise or otherwise dress up FLEXCIT as a “British Model” will only add to the opportunity for the other parties to make demands.

    Given the severity of the consequences of no Brexit agreement being ready by the time Brexit occurs, one is forced to speculate on what could happen – to the negotiations.

    The one and only sliver of hope is that the EU “has form” on breaking it’s own rules and making rules up on the spur of the moment to suit a given situation. It is possible that they could “stop the clock” and continue negotiating and then back date the agreement. One has to hope so for the consequences of leaving the EU with no agreement are catastrophic for the UK.

    This means that ANY attempt to disguise Flexcit in special bespoke “British Model” increases the danger that exists as the 27 others will try and push for advantageous (for them) concessions knowing that they have time on their side.

    Given the fact that Article 50 was drawn up to discourage member states from leaving and that there will be many politicians in the 27 EU states who will want to see the UK Remainers and Remainacs do well at the GE in 2020, it will be a miracle if a Brexit on Flexcit terms is obtained.

    In the past, UK politicians seem to have gone to “Europe” and have been duly stuffed.

    Will this change?

    We think not.

    Sadly, we are of the opinion that the UK will be well and truly stuffed, just like the turkey in Martha Stewart’s kitchen!

    So, what should UKIP’s strategy be?

    1. To realise and accept that the UK is going to be well and truly stuffed.
    2. Don’t contest seats where Brexiteer candidates from other parties are standing.
    3. Wait until the time after Brexit when the UK will have been forced to enter into agreements that give the Belgians, French and Spanish even more rights to fish in our waters than they have now and to then campaign for a new agreement.

    It is the considered position of this organ that the policy of “asking for a second bite of the cherry” demanding a new and equitable agreement is the way to go. The reason? Article 50 and the entire Brexit process. The odds are just stacked so heavily against member state wishing to leave.

    Once Article 50 is invoked, Ukippers have to realise that they have achieved the FIRST PART of their objective: the UK is on course for Brexit. The SECOND PART can ONLY be achieved AFTER Brexit – NOT before and NOT during negotiations.
    The opportunity for the UK to gain concessions will ONLY come when we are free sovereign independent country again. This is when UKIP will have it’s second task: to agitate and campaign for a new agreement.
    This of course will infuriate the remaining members of the EU but so what?

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