Firstly, our apologies to A. C. Benson, author of the lyrics to “Land of hope…”
The latest revelation of the 2016 US Presidential election campaign for whom the adjective turbulent does not do justice, is reported upon by amongst others the Guardian newspaper below:
The reports that appear to have Mrs Hillary Clinton enmeshed AGAIN in a scandal relating to her use of email communication. This at the time when Mrs Clinton appears to be heading to a decisive victory over her opponent Mr Trump who also is enmeshed in several scandals all in relation to the use of another, less technical means of communication: His mouth.
Given the lateness of the campaign and the seeming difference in the levels of support for each candidate, it appears possible that Mrs Clinton may well be elected President on Tuesday 8th November, 2016 but will be so enmeshed in possible proceedings against her that she will not be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States on Inauguration Day, Friday, 20th January, 2017 but her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine will be!
This of course will be mourned by the brigade of feminists across the western world!
We can expect the BBC to be very sad indeed that a black man, Barack Obama who was the 44th President of the United States will not have been succeeded by a woman. This of course illustrates the BIG LIE about the politically correct: they are the discriminators. It is not as the late Doctor King said, “the content of one’s character” that is important to these folks, it is the colour of your skin, the type and position of your genitals and your religious faith – if any – that is important to them.
Relatively little has been reported this side of “the pond” about Senator Kaine. Herewith two sources:
The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/07/22/10-things-you-should-know-about-tim-kaine/
British Gazette comment: IF Senator Kaine becomes the 45th President of the United States it is clear that he will suffer from an encumbrance not of his making and not his fault: Lack of a Mandate. This is important for a democratic politician.
In the context of the UK we will have a situation where the British Prime Minister and the US President will be perceived by many to lack a popular mandate. President Kaine would be constrained by the rigidities of the US Constitution from seeking one. Mrs May on the other hand, although restrained to a degree by the new system of fixed term parliaments is not so restrained.
There will be many things on President Kaine’s “to do list” lying on the desk in the oval office.
One of them he should NOT overlook is Brexit.
Senator/President Kaine will hopefully be aware of what Brexit is. He will know that the majority of his fellow Americans if asked what Brexit is are more likely to reply, with the question, “Is that some kind of candy [chocolate] bar?” than the UK leaving the EU!
Hopefully, his advisers will inform him that Brexit is a process that if it goes wrong presents a grave threat to the US economy and that it is in the US national interest to see that Brexit takes place smoothly.
Hopefully they will explain to him something that most Britons are unaware of! That “Brexit” can be said to be in two parts.
The first part is the invoking of Article 50. This can ONLY be done by the UK. Furthermore it HAS to be done in according with the UK’s own constitutional requirements. This is because serving Article 50 notification of EU withdrawal is an irrevocable (Labour and Liberal Democrats take note!) process whereby at the end of a period of two years from the date of invoking ALL treaties pertaining to the former member state and thereby ALL regulations and directives issued pursuant to same will CEASE TO APPLY.
Then there is the second part. This is the negotiation of, agreement to AND ratification by ALL 28 parties of a new agreement to take the place of those treaties and their legislation.
IF – and it is a real risk – there is NO such agreement, the UK will find itself in a position known as “non legislated WTO Default”.
Some in UKIP are suffering from the delusion that “non legislated WTO Default” is a Good Place! This belief is as delusional and WRONG as is the Unfortunate Mr Davy’s delusional belief that the UK can replace base load electricity with electricity from wind turbines erected in the middle of the North Sea!
To describe the effects of “non legislated WTO Default” as immediate and severe is to seriously understate the gravity of the situation!
Anyone hoping to travel on the M25 or M2 will discover that both motorways will quickly become gigantic lorry parks!
Anyone hoping to go on a foreign holiday will find that the value of the £ will have dropped off a cliff!
Shoppers would have found that the prices of items in the shops would have gone up and UK exporters would have found that the prices of their goods will be incredible competitive. These things however will be “apparent” for there may well be few items in the shops and exporters may well be able to take orders form their goods but be unable to deliver them.
The danger of this to the US economy is third hand. For the UK economy the danger is obviously first hand. The EU will experience the effects second hand. This is because the UK economy is very important to the EU. If the UK economy crashes and the banks become unstable – AGAIN – the shock waves will be received by the EU member states themselves. IF these member states had economies, a currency and a banking system that were all in good health, the problem would be of great concern. However, these member states have economies, a currency and a banking system that are all in VERY poor health! The economic collapse of the UK (and this IS what we are talking about) will likely be the “straw that broke the camel’s back”. Were the EU’s curency the Ero to crash and with it the EU’s banking system the US economy will NOT be able to insulate themselves from this.
The problem here is that for over half a century the US politicians and bankers have taken the opportunity presented by the US$ being the world’s reserve currency to borrow against this in then knowledge that they will not be required to pay back all they have borrowed!
Thus the danger posed by a disastrous Brexit resulting in “non legislated WTO Default” could bring the whole edifice of western capitalism down!
This is why the British Gazette has been insisting that FLEXCIT authored by Dr Richard North and others is the ONLY sane option for the UK government to take.
The sad FACT is this: that the UK government will come away with a deal much less advantageous that the deal Iceland and Norway have. It is clear that the UK’s fishermen are likely to be dealt a bad deal.
The way to deal with this situation will be to campaign after Brexit for a renegotiation, particularly for “Britain’s Fish.”