In the British Gazette’s not so humble opinion, two of the most heart warming FICTIONAL works ever are Sheila Burnford’s book, The Incredible Journey and the 1963 Walt Disney film based on it. The tale of the suffering and stress of an arduous journey, together with the unwavering loyalty and courage of the three animals makes for a wonderful plot. In order to really experience the emotional impact of the film, it is necessary for one to suspend belief and one’s critical faculties and impute an anthropomorphic intelligent camaraderie to the three animals.
A similar suspension of belief is equally necessary to believe what most UKIP members are saying.
Never has the influence of lobby groups from British and European Industry and Commerce has been needed more!
This is because of the dead hand of UKIP.
Many British Gazette readers will again be very annoyed at this organ’s editorial line but whilst UKIP was part of the solution before 10:00PM on Thursday 23rd June 2016, at around 05:00AM on Friday 24th June 2016 it became part of the problem!
Hopefully however, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, PC, MP, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Liam Fox, PC, MP, Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade, Member for North Somerset and David Michael Davis, MP, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, Member for Haltemprice and Howden – GET IT!
It is now becoming increasingly clear that there are FOUR possible outcomes to consider:
1. A successful Brexit meaning remaining in the EEA via EFTA. Meaning the UK being subject to the EFTA court and NOT the European Court of Justice.
2. A fraudulent Brexit meaning remaining in the EEA via a “special arrangement” with the UK being subject to the European Court of Justice and NOT the EFTA court. In this case, Brexit does NOT mean Brexit!
3. A failed Brexit meaning NO AGREEMENT. This has been described as the “going over the cliff Brexit” and the “train crash Brexit”.
IF outcome 3 occurs, it may be for one or more reasons, viz:
(i) Messrs. Davis, Fox & Johnson do not seek EEA membership and seek instead the so called “free trade deal” with the EU. This is doomed to FAIL! Not because of any reluctance on the part of the EU but on the practical impossibility of negotiating and ratifying any such agreement in less than 10 years!
(ii) Messrs. Davis, Fox & Johnson seek a bespoke EEA membership on special terms which run out of time because all or some member states fail to agree.
(iii) Messrs. Davis, Fox & Johnson seek a “standard” EEA membership via EFTA membership but there is no agreement because all or some member states fail to ratify the new treaty and not all member states agree to resetting Article 50’s two year countdown clock.
There is however a FOURTH possibility. This is a stalled Brexit.
This will be where Messrs. Davis, Fox & Johnson seek (i), (ii) or (iii) and the EU side drag their feet BUT ALL member states agree to resetting Article 50’s two year countdown clock.
Given the severity of the consequences of possibility #3 – for European industry as well as British industry – no sensible EU government leader would stand by and see an EU member refuse to reset the clock without strong protest.
A stalled Brexit will take place for one or more or a combination of reasons. One reason could be the sheer practical difficulty in meeting the demand of the UK. This may well be deliberate on the part of the British!
The FACT every British Gazette reader HAS to bear in mind is that Messrs. Davis, Fox & Johnson are all politicians and as such want to be re-elected! All three of these reprobates realise that a train crash Brexit will guarantee the end of their political careers and also that of the Tory party!
At the same time, they will be looking “over their [metaphorical] shoulders” – aka opinion poll data – insofar as UKIP is concerned. Thus the British side may push for an agreement that cannot be implemented in order to keep UKIP at bay until May 2020. Following a Tory victory, the Tories would then go for EFTA+EEA and call it “a transitional agreement”.
On the EU side, they will be looking to May 2020 with the hope that a more compliant Europhile Labour or Lib-Lab coalition as new negotiating partners.