Verily, 2016 and 2017 seem to live up to the curse!
The EU referendum in Britain, the election of “The Donald” in the USA, the rise of Geert Wilders, Marine Le Pen and Alternative für Deutschland are but five aspects of this. Of the prospects for Marine Le Pen, they seem to have been raised due to a gaffe from her opponent Emmanuel Macron. Herewith the Daily Express (there are many adverts on their site): http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/769335/Marine-Le-Pen-Emmanuel-Macron-Front-National-En-Marche-French-Election
For people in Britain, what has now universally become known as Brexit now dominates the nation’s politics.
Now we have the group Leave Means Leave adding to the already monumental pile of nonsense.
We seem to entered a curious unreality! It seems that nearly all of the political class – both Remainers and Brexiteers have left (to a greater or lesser extent) their normal critical faculties!
There are those of us, your Editor, Dr. Richard North and Mr Chritsopher Booker who seem to be amoung a few voices crying in the wilderness. It is as if we three had been sent back in time to July AD 79 to Pompeii.
By the 1st century AD, Pompeii was one of a number of towns near the base of the volcano, Mount Vesuvius. The area had a substantial population, which had grown prosperous from the region’s renowned agricultural fertility. Many of Pompeii’s neighboring communities, most famously Herculaneum, also suffered damage or destruction during the 79 eruption. The eruption occurred on 24 August AD 79, just one day after Vulcanalia, the festival of the Roman god of fire, including that from volcanoes.
Of course Vesuvius will have been rumbling and erupting before the disastrous eruption which destroyed Pompeii. There will have been those who warned their fellow citizens but clearly such warnings were ignored. With the results now known to history.
I suppose if I was a deranged and delusional conspiracy theorist who believed that HM the Queen was a shape shifting extraterrestrial and that these creatures have got all the world’s civil airline operators to emit chemicals into the atmosphere to poison we pesky humans, I might think that the EU and the Remainers had hatched up a terrible treasonous conspiracy to force a disastrous Brexit on the UK and then when the supermarket shelves are empty and the motorways are one great lorry park and nobody can get to work; the EU will come up with “an emergency response” to cancel Brexit and put the clock back!
But then, if I believed that I would be a certifiable lunatic.
But there again, there are certain people (yes, John Redwood – you) who think that the UK could “simply” repeal the ECA 1972, not bother with Article 50 and enter the nirvana of a post Brexit UK the day after!
There are even some blokes who believe that beautiful extraterrestrial women cross light years of space in “flying saucers” just to have sex with them!
This of course would mean the deliberate causing of a monumental disruption of trade and economic dislocation – albeit short term. The organisers of such would have to realise and accept that the economic damage caused would not be restricted to the UK. The economies and major exporters in the EU member states would be adversely affected as well.
There may of course be another option being planned in Brussels.
The arch Europhiles Tony Blair and Lord Mandleson are calling for a second referendum.
Now, politics apart, there is a practical problem here: Article 50. The provisions of Article 50 are clear. Once invoked, the member state will after two years be outside the EU. The treaties will no longer apply and the former member state will no longer be recognised as a member.
Now this means that there is no point in holding a second referendum as the act of leaving is done when Article 50 is served. The only criteria being that the member state has a two year period of notice before it’s leaving takes effect.
Now, Mr Blair was trained as a barrister. He should therefore be aware of this. Lord Mandleson whilst not a lawyer is well know for being a highly intelligent and competent individual. It is most unlikely he could not be aware of this.
Therefore another scenario is possible. Consider this:
Article 50 is invoked. The negotiations take place and are tough. Madam May takes a negotiating position that pleases Mr Nuttal. The negotiations get nowhere. The clock is ticking. Twelve months after Article 50 has been invoked a proposal is made by the UK government. That a time extension of say another year is added. The other side agree but on the basis of a new EU treaty that has the effect of amending Article 50 itself. The amendment would introduce a cancellation clause that could be used by the member state at any time up to say three months before the exit date.
That would allow for another referendum on the deal.
The FACT of the matter is this: Any deal offered that does not comprise Flexcit will be worse than Flexcit. Flexcit is the best deal the UK can expect. It is there to be grabbed. Failure to grab it will result in either:
1. a monumental slump
2. a severe short term hiatus followed by re-entry into the EU and the Eurozone.
3. Brexit but on worse terms than Flexcit
4. Article 50 cancelled and the UK remaining in the EU but still outside the Eurozone.
None of these are desirable. Flexcit is not ideal. But it is the best available.
The Nirvana offered by UKIP and Mr Nuttal does not exist!