• Stoke-on-Trent: Where next for UKIP?

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    Huge numbers of Ukippers who worked so hard in the recent weeks pounding the pavements of Stoke-on-Trent will now feel dreadfully upset and disappointed at the result.

    Herewith the figures:

    Party ~ Candidate ~ Votes ~ % ~ ±

    Labour ~ Gareth Snell ~ 7,854 ~ 37.1 ~ -2.2
    UKIP ~ Paul Nuttall ~ 5,233 ~ 24.7 ~ +2.1
    Conservative ~ Jack Brereton ~ 5,154 ~ 24.3 ~ +1.8
    Liberal Democrat ~ Zulfiqar Ali ~ 2,083 ~ 9.8 ~ +5.7
    Green ~ Adam Colclough ~ 294 ~ 1.4 ~ -2.2
    Independent ~ Barbara Fielding ~ 137 ~ 0.6 ~ N/A
    Monster Raving Loony ~ The Incredible Flying Brick ~ 127 ~ 0.6 ~ N/A
    BNP ~ David Furness ~ 124 ~ 0.6 ~ N/A
    Christian Peoples ~ Godfrey Davies ~ 109 ~ 0.5 ~ N/A
    Independent ~ Mohammad Akram ~ 56 ~ 0.3 ~ N/A
    Majority ~ 2,620 ~ 12.4 ~ -4.3
    Turnout ~ 21,200 ~ 38.2 ~ -11.7

    Of UKIP’s second placing in Stoke Central, today’s Indy states: “Labour has secured an emphatic victory in Stoke-on-Trent Central after fending off Ukip’s Paul Nuttall, raising doubts over the right-wing party’s ability to capitalise on Brexit…” and goes on: “Labour’s Gareth Snell, who won 7,853 votes to UKIP’s 5,233, said the result showed “hatred and bigotry” were not welcome in Stoke, a former industrial city which has been a safe Labour seat since 1950.”
    British Gazette retort: The unpleasant Mr Snell, MP is well qualified to talk about hatred and bigotry having previously called Brexit “a massive pile of [expletive deleted] and described Mr Corbyn as an “IRA-supporting friend of Hamas”!
    British Gazette general comments: The image that top’s today’s article is the same as the image that topped our article of 1st September 2016 when we endorsed Ms Diane James to be leader of UKIP.
    Herewith: http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2016/09/01/ukips-leadership-election/ and also our subsequent advice to her (some of which the lady appears to have taken on board) GOTO: http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2016/09/02/memo-to-diane-james-be-careful-what-you-wish-for-you-might-get-it/
    Of today’s image, we are AGAIN grateful to the establishment Huffington Post for producing it as it is a most excellent example of the carping, elitist, snobbish attitude of the chattering classes towards UKIP and it’s supporters.

    Of course, were one to take such a carping, elitist, snobbish attitude against a non Christian religious group or non white ethnic group, one would be accused of a “hate crime”!

    Stoke Central’s new MP, the unpleasant Mr Snell, has of course given the world a most excellent example of this sneering aloof attitude – and towards his own constituents no less!
    To the complex question constituting today’s title, the first thing to realise is the central aspect of Labour’s attack on UKIP. UKIP is and will continued to be portrayed as a party of climate change deniers (more so when and if Mr Trump takes the act to the Paris agreement), bigots, extremists and racists.

    Mr Nuttal is indeed right to conclude that UKIP’s electoral hopes lie in taking traditional white working class Labour votes and not middle class Tory votes.

    This means that UKIP’s other policies than Brexit needs to be from the LEFT and not the RIGHT.

    This is a problem as many Ukippers are ex Tories!

    UKIP’s manifesto stall needs to appeal to these white working class voters outside London and the South East.

    Most importantly, UKIP has to recognise that it is a unique conundrum!

    We must all be forever grateful to Sir Walter Scott for his epic poem “Marmion” about the Battle of Flodden (1513) published in 1808 containing as it did this gem:
    “Oh, what a tangled web we weave
    When first we practise to deceive!”

    The Unfortunate Mr Nuttall will doubtless be reflecting upon this stanza in the wake of the Hillsborough statements on his website!

    For Mr Nuttall to have been declared MP for Stoke Central, 1,321 voters who voted for any of the other nine candidates would have to have switched to UKIP OR 2,621 of those persons on the electoral role who chose not to vote to have decided to vote and vote UKIP. OR a combination of these.

    Mr Farage was correct when he said that the Stoke Central result was of fundamental importance to UKIP.

    It can reasonably be concluded that the controversy surrounding the Hillsborough statements caused UKIP to be second in Stoke Central and not first. Were it NOT for these statements, UKIP’s leader would have had a seat in Westminster – albeit by the thinnest of wafer thing majorities.

    The problem for UKIP in having the Unfortunate Mr Nuttall as it’s leader is that the opposition will make sure that they keep kicking balls at this open door. This is because Hillsborough is NOT going to go away. In the not too far distant future there will be prosecutions of certain individuals.

    Hillsborough is a millstone around the Unfortunate Mr Nuttall’s neck and that makes him a millstone around UKIP’s neck!

    There is of course NO winning way out of this mess for if UKIP does have yet another leadership election it will play badly.

    This is a loose-loose situation and we are afraid it boils down to a choice of the lesser of two evils:

    Continue with a leader with a problem or endure the negativity of another election.

    Then of course there is the obvious question: Who would replace the Unfortunate Mr Nuttall?

    There is only one realistic alternative leader: the former leader Mr Farage!

    The FACT is that Mr Farage is the universally accepted popular figurehead of UKIP. Most voters shown a photograph of him would be able to name him. He is as well known as Madam May and Comrade Corbyn!

    So, let us ask ourselves this question: Does UKIP have a future?

    The answer to that is a hopeful YES.

    The use of the adjective “hopeful” is due to the richest and most unique of ironies! This is that in order to have a future, UKIP’s principal policy of a “Hard Brexit” must NEVER be allowed to come about! This is due to the FACT that were UKIP to achieve success in having a “Hard Brexit” come about the consequences for the UK’s economy would be disastrous! And of such proportions, UKIP would be wiped out!

    Therefore in order for UKIP to achieve some form of success the UK must avoid a “Hard Brexit”. This of course means Flexcit, aka “the Norway Option” – technically EFTA+EEA membership.

    So we have this most curious of situations: UKIP can only proser if “Hard Brexit” is avoided. If Madam May succeeds in bringing about a successful Brexit – presumably calling EFTA+EEA “the Transitional Arrangement” – UKIP can still continue to promote it’s “Somewhere over the rainbow” wish list. This is because under EFTA+EEA the UK economy will continue pretty much the same as it has done in the past which means the current dominance of London and the South East.

    Of course, UKIP’s principal representation lies in the European Parliament which will mean that those MEPs will cease to have this platform upon Brexit!

    Thus, post Brexit, UKIP’s representation will lie in the person of Douglas Carswell MP and those members elected to the Welsh Assembly and those local councillors.

    Of course, IF heaven forbid, UKIP actually succeeds in achieving it’s objective of a “Hard Brexit” it will have to suffer an even worse set of ironies.

    This is because IF the UK does crash out of the EU with all the chaos and economic damage that such will inevitably ensue, then the EU will likely act very quickly – and by very quickly we mean very quickly indeed – put together what they might call an emergency reversion treaty to either cancel Brexit restoring the UK’s membership to what it was prior Article 50 invoking – FOR A FEE OR WORSE an emergency readmission as a new EU member which will mean entry into the Eurozone. This could be done were the Sterling Euro entry rate was set at parity – 1 € for 1 £.

    Of course, UKIP would be able to take part in the elections for the European Parliament but it is likely to have been so damaged by the economic chaos that the UK’s MEP’s will largely come from Labour, the Lib-Dems, the SNP and Plaid Cymru!

    It is however possible that in such circumstances, a future Lib-Dem/Labour coalition government will reform the electoral system to the Commons allowing some form of PR – which will enable UKIP to have some chance of future success.

    So to recap, as demoralised Ukippers ponder into their coffees (or perhaps, something a little stronger!) they have to recognise that the future means one of four possibilities for the UK:

    1. Flexcit – aka “the Transitional Arrangement”.
    2. Crash Brexit followed by retroactive cancelled Brexit and continued current EU membership.
    3. Crash Brexit followed by emergency EU+Eurozone membership.
    4. That that oh so nice Mr Blair and his Europhile colleagues such as the Rt. Hon the Lord Mandleson might succeed in their attempts to get a second referendum and to have the EU change Article 50 during the negotiations to allow for the halting of the process – cancel Brexit – again for a FEE!

    So here is the cruellest of cruel ironies! That UKIP’s electoral chances might best lie in them LOOSING the second referendum and also in hands of Messrs. Blair and Mandleson!

    As the Chinese like to say: “May you live in interesting times!”

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