Earlier in the year we went to the performance put on in our village of the annual pantomime staged by the local amdram society. Pantos of course are mainly for children. In fact without young children in the audience the performance will fall flat.
As we sat in the village hall talking with our neighbours we noted the reducing in conversational noise as the lights dimmed and we waited expectantly for the curtain to rise. The children of course especially so!
As it was with the village panto, so it is with the Brexit pantomime playing in two venues: the Palace of Westminster and at Le grand palais de Bruxelles.
In our earlier article (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2017/03/09/brexit-caught-in-a-trap/) we invited readers to advise the Editor as to precisely where the revocation text lay in Article 50.
We it seems there is an answer. That answer is to be found on the website of the Brussels Brainwashing Commissariat!
It seems that no less an authority that Lord Kerr of Kinlochard has pronounced that Article 50 can be revoked!
Who is Lord Kerr of Kinlochard? We hear you ask!
The co-author of Article 50 is the answer. Lord Kerr is of the opinion that there is no reason why a state cannot halt the process. He was also of the belief that the article would never be used!
Herewith the report: https://www.babinc.org/bbc-article-50-author-brexit-not-irrevocable/
This development is of profound importance.
As we begin to edge ever forward along the Brexit process we come to the conclusion that the denouement du processus may not result in Brexit.
This is because of the severe consequences of a Hard Brexit. Now whilst the politicians in this country and some other countries may all be seized of a mass collective delusion of the type that afflcited the country in the run up to the South Sea Company crash of August 1721, there is one thing of which we can be sure:
That the stock markets, the currency markets, the credit reference agencies and in particular those many banks and other financial instrutions who have leant vast sums to the UK and others WILL be aware of the dire consequences of a Hard Brexit. Thus, as the UK appears to be moving towards the edge of the cliff, we can confirdently expect these players to start reacting.
This will result in the following:
1. Huge falls in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250.
2. Huge falls in the value of Sterling.
3. Significant de-ratings of the UK’s credit rating by the credit reference agencies.
4. Massive rises in UK interest rates by the Bank of England.
5. A Europhile rebellion in the House of Commons resulting in a motion of no confidence being passed (fixed term Parliament Act notwithstanding) and a general election.
6. A new government.
Depending upon the make up of that new government Brexit could falter at that point.
Were there to be a Lib-Lab coalition following the election, we could see early legislation introduced for a second referendum with the option of continuing or cancelling Brexit.