Today the European Union, then the European Community (EC) is celebrating it’s 60th birthday.
Madam May made a sensible decision not to attend.
Your Editor is of the opinion that not many of it’s readers will be sending 60th birthday cards to Brussels! Most British Gazette readers will know that the Great European Project was founded on the basis that it would be from the start, a great deception as this was the only practical means of bringing the aim of a supra-national confederation about.
The FACT is that the European Union is built on lies and falsehoods. Even it’s motto. This from it’s own website:
“United in diversity”, the motto of the European Union, first came into use in 2000.
It signifies how Europeans have come together, in the form of the EU, to work for peace and prosperity, while at the same time being enriched by the continent’s many different cultures, traditions and languages.
British Gazette comment: A more appropriate motto would be “The end justifies the means.”
Evidence of the dishonesty that was embedded in it’s very core and permeated to it’s outermost periphery was the term by which the European Community was widely known in the UK in the period up to the UK’s entry and for some time thereafter: the Common Market.
This of course was a deliberate deception dreamed up at the behest of Arch Traitor Heath to conceal that what the UK was joining was primarily a political project not an economic one.
This has had a corrupting effect on British political and public life ever since.
Why did the British ruling elite join what was always going to be the European Union?
Because the USA wanted them to!
Because the State Department of the USA was of the opinion that with the UK involved the pace of integration would be slowed thus preserving the USA’s position as primus inter pares in NATO.
Thus it is presently the case that in order to divine the intentions of the government is is necessary to note not what they say, but rather what they do not say. Furthermore, the actions of others outside government have to be noted and conclusions drawn.
The most important actions to take note of is the decision by foreign car makers to maintain their operations in the UK.
In Wednesday’s article (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2017/03/22/brexit-timed-out/) we speculated upon the possible outcome of the Brexit negotiations.
This is so important it needs further attention. Hence today’s article.
We have to start somewhere and it properly should be with the woman featured in the image above.
It can safely be assumed that Madam May has set herself the following objective:
To obtain a Conservative majority government following the next general election.
In order to achieve this she will realise that if she fails to achieve Brexit and also crashes the economy these will not help her chances!
Madam May will also realise that she is working against two clocks. One clock is the assumed date of the next general election on Thursday 7th May 2020 in line with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. The other is the 2 year clock contained in Article 50.
Madam May will be aware that there needs to be at least 6 months before Friday 29th March 2019 to get any agreement ratified by all parties, that means the talks proper will take place between the beginning of June 2017 and end of September 2018. That is a period of 486 days or 1 year, 3 months and 29 days.
That is NOT long enough to complete what is inevitably going to be a hugely complicated agreement. Even were this to be Flexcit.
Thus there appears to be probability that Saturday 30th March 2019 will herald the start of chaos.
Madam May and her fellow cabinet ministers will not be alone in wanting to ensure that chaos does not come about. Many in the European Commission and major manufacturers such as BMW will not want chaos to come about.
Notwithstanding these desires, ALL these persons and organisations will be aware of the FACT that the complex agreement that will take the place of the UK’s EU membership CANNOT be completed by the end of September 2018.
Therefore ALL these persons and organisations will be aware that this particular circle has to be squared! In other words, HOW can we avoid a Hard Brexit!
One method would be to extend the 2 year time-scale contained in Article 50. This would require unanimity by all 27 EU member states. This would be problematic on all sides. This would be that a time-scale would have to be set at something like a decade for safety. That will be politically difficult for both sides.
This tends to indicate that the most likely outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be the outcome suggested in Wednesday’s article.
Achieving Brexit on the basis that the treaties will continue until the agreement is concluded will have several advantages for Madam May and the Tory party.
Firstly; Brexit will have been achieved. There will be a treaty that has been signed and ratified by all 28 parties.
Secondly, the Great Repeal Act will have received the Royal Assent.
However: the treaties governing this country as an EU member will still be extant! Furthermore, the Great Repeal Act will not have been put into effect and the European Communities Act, whilst repealed will still be in effect. This anomalous situation could be brought to a speedy end by a Secretary of State laying a Statutory Instrument before Parliament to that effect. This is something Madam May and the Tory propaganda machine will lay great stress upon; that Brexit HAS been achieved and that when the wonderful agreement being worked upon is finished the UK will enter a new dawn of economic prosperity and bask on the sunlight uplands of the Independence Hills.
In other words, before the agreement is complete, a Hard Brexit is only a ministerial decision away.
The time period that Madam May’ s mind is concentrated upon is the 403 days or 1 year, 1 month and 7 days from Sunday 31st March 2019 to Thursday 7th May 2020.
This is because the “transitional period” between Brexit being achieved in theory and Brexit being achieved in practise is electorally survivable only in the relative short term. This is because UKIP will loose no time whatsoever reminding anybody who cares to listen that the UK is still bound by every existing EU treaty, obligation, directive and regulation and any new ones without having any influence on these whatsoever. In response Madam May and the Tories will state that this is a transition period and as soon as the agreement is finished the UK will be free of the treaties.
One of the things that will be kicked to the very end is the exit payment for the UK’s RAL liability which the Eurocrats are hoping to price at £60 billion. This will be something that will be argued about until the very end.
British politicians tend to judge challenges and problems in terms of the next general election. Madam May is likely to view Brexit in this perspective. If she can achieve Brexit and bee seen to be working towards finalising the agreement – which she will talk up as much as possible – she reckons she can say she has delivered Brexit and that the electorate will then accept the line that trade agreements are terribly complex and take a little time to put into effect.
UKIP of course will be calling for immediate termination of the EU treaties and a Hard Brexit.
That of course would be Turkeys voting for Christmas.
We can thank the late Liberal Party politician David Penhaligon, for this idiom who was quoted as saying: “Us voting for the Pact is like a turkey voting for Christmas” in reference to the 1977 Lib-Lab Pact which he opposed.
Of course, this raises the question as to who would want to win the 2020 General Election?
Truly, many would regard it as a poison chalice!
Maybe the Tories would like to loose and have another Lib-Lab Pact form the next government, and following a referendum have the UK abandon the incomplete agreement and rejoin the EU and join the Eurozone.
Of course, Eurozone entry would require the UK to address its deficit more aggressively. Well during the transition period the UK would have paid into the EU but may well not have received any money back, the funds being held in escrow pending settlement of the RAL liability. Then there is the £60 billion RAL liability itself. Doubtless the Lib-Lab Pact would have a couple of tough budgets and enter shortly after this.
This then is the warning: On the 60th birthday of the EU, don’t think the UK is safe from its clutches yet.