• Êtes-vous un imbécile ou un imprésario?

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    “Are you an imbecile or an impresario?” Is a question it would be reasonable for M. Barnier to ask of Davis. Of course, it is likely that he already knows the answer to this question so he has no need to ask it! Unfortunately, we the Great British Public have to guess which?

    Today, Doctor Richard North in his authoritative blog (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86542) gives us a pessimistic reality check. Given the authority of the sources he has available to him he would insist that his pessimism is as well founded as the facts he uses to base his arguments.

    The image that has been used in today’s article, also used in Dr North’s blogpost is a most remarkable image. The mainstream media have already given Davis the unflattering sobriquet, “No notes Davis”. The conventional received wisdom, “dans les milieux diplomatiques” would suggest that M. Barnier and his delegation would take Davis and his teams public and most blatant display of unpreparedness as a huge slight. That the British were not treating the negotiations with sufficient seriousness and were time wasting.

    Thus the title of today’s article, for Davis is either an impresario or an imbecile!

    That he is an impresario – one of the controlling minds of a huge coup de theatre is the most hoped for explanation. Yesterdays article (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2017/07/15/short-title-in-the-eea-or-out-that-is-the-question/) raised and briefly began to explore the possibility that the coup de theatre whose audience is the British and the European public, is of a no deal, train crash averted Brexit.

    This is a possibility – and all this is in the realms of speculation – that this is what has been planned. There is a strange rationale that can be postulated. For a start one must bear in mind what such as M. Barnier and D. Davis are and what they are not. They are (or were) democratically elected politicians. They answer or used to answer to elected assemblies. Such men and women do NOT have dictatorial powers. Neither man resembles Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and the Supreme Leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)!

    Furthermore it has to be understood that getting an agreement – even if both negotiating teams are fully in agreement will be difficult and not certain. This is because it requires ALL 27 EU member states to ratify it plus the European Parliament. That is difficult enough. To do this in a two year time-scale is damn near impossible!

    Conventional wisdom as outlined at length in the British Gazette and more so in Dr. North’s blog indicates that the No Deal/Train crash Brexit will be extraordinarily damaging. IF such takes place and the motorway network is effectively blocked off at the ports, UK airspace is closed and supermarket shelves empty of foodstuffs the consequences will be catastrophic!
    The political system could collapse. Civil disturbances would be widespread.
    Such dire consequences would occur IF the chaos was to endure for well over a week. The maximum – and we stress we are begin generous in our estimation – period the UK could “hang together” during such chaos is a fortnight. Tops!

    HOWEVER:

    Might it be the case that the EEA membership retention post Brexit would serve as the basis for a continuing relationship with the EU?

    There is an argument to suggest that this could be the case. This is because it requires BOTH sides to do something they are both capable of doing – NOTHING!

    Apart from the UK which is in the process of patriating the entire body of EU law into British Law.

    The ONLY additional thing that would need to be done would be a court decision to confirm that the UK having left the EU is still a member of the EEA!

    When such a court delivers such a verdict and what court delivers it is open to question.

    The least disruptive scenario would be a court ruling on the eve of Brexit. This would mean the European Court of Justice.

    Of course, this will require some co-operation on the part of the UK’s former EU partners! The EU’s complaisance to such a No Deal/Train crash Brexit will have to be obtained – hence the EU’s insistence of the UK agreeing to pay a certain sum of money for it’s EU liabilities.

    What a “No Deal/Train crash Brexit” would amount to would be a second class Norway Option!

    Please understand Dear Reader this FACT: Such a “No Deal/Train crash Brexit” would NOT amount to Flexcit. It would be INFERIOR!

    It would be inferior because the court that would adjudicate of EEA issues would be the EU’s European Court of Justice and NOT the EFTA Court. The UK would NOT have the same degree of flexibility over the partial restrictions to Free Movement that Norway and the other EEA members who are EFTA members have.

    If the court ruling takes place after Brexit Day then it is likely the International Court in the Hague would make the decision. The problem for the UK is that chaos would ensue for a temporary period.

    Of course, IF this is not the case and there is no coup de theatre in the planning and Davis is not an impresario he is an imbecile!

    Now let us speculate on the WORST CASE scenario!

    This is where the EU and the UK and the international community witness the UK Brexit with No Deal and leaves the EEA at that time.

    Chaos would rapidly ensue. This would have the severest knock on effects to the stock market and the currency markets. The FTSE would crash as would Sterling.

    The government would fall within a fortnight. A general election would be called. The EU could in true Jean Monnet style seize this opportunity as a classic “beneficial crisis” and declare that the EU would be prepared to have the UK re-enter the EU on “Special Emergency Terms” – as Eurozone member. As Sterling would rapidly depreciate to levels BELOW the Euro this would give an immediate cash boost to Britons!

    Of course the Liberal Democrats would be best placed to exploit the chaos!

    The Tories would quite literally be finished as a political force. UKIP would have disappeared.
    Labour would be discredited as it could not escape all responsibility. ONLY the pro EU Liberal Democrats would be in the position to take the country forward. We could see the Lib-Dems sweep across the Tory heartlands.

    This of course is UKIP’s worst nightmare: A majority Liberal Democrat government taking the UK back into the EU and into the Eurozone.

    Many British Gazette readers who are also UKIP members have been highly critical and very angry with the line the British Gazette has taken on Brexit.
    The British Gazette has taken the line it has done because Flexcit is the ONLY practical Brexit strategy.

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