• “The Sage of Twickenham”: The “Grand Old Man” of 21st Century British Politics?

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    The Rt. Hon. William Ewart Gladstone, PC, FRS, FSS that great Liberal Statesman, four times Prime Minister, four times Chancellor of the Exchequer was a towering figure in 19th Century politics.

    The question we ask today then is will Sir John Vincent Cable PC MP, the Member for Twickenham and Leader of the Liberal Democrats, formerly Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills (2010 to 2015) be Prime Minister after Madame Mayhem or her earlier Tory replacement?

    The “Dim-Libs” (as many Ukippers like to refer to them as) had been on a bit of a roller-coaster over the past dozen years. The 2005 General Election gave them 62 out of the 646 Commons seats. The 2010 election, 57 out of 650 seats. As a result of the coalition they slumped to 8 out of 650 seats. 2017 saw this increase by 50% to a dozen seats out of 650.

    To suggest that the Lib-Dems could increase this thirty fold to 360 seats may well be seen as completely unrealistic.

    Two things however could cause this to come about.

    Firstly, as Doctor North so expertly points out (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86562) the present government along with large parts of the opposition and the “mainstream media” appear to be making a dog’s breakfast of Brexit. To the apparent increasing concern of other EU members. Please note our use of the qualifying words, “appear” and “apparent”. This is because we still hope that the political establishment across Europe are putting on a grand coup de théâtre.
    If they are not then the UK is in deep trouble!
    Secondly, Sir Vince appears to be cognisant of the political situation and appears to be targeting the Europhile youth and has coined the phrase “Brexit Martyrs” and presumably, “Brexit Martyrdom!”
    GOTO: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/06/vince-cable-hits-out-at-hardline-brexit-martyrs?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=238175&subid=15907465&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
    Doubtless Sir Vince supported by the many seasoned Lib-Dem campaigners will seek to convince the electorate that the economic prosperity of 21st Century Britain has been sacrificed on the alter of Brexit in the name of a 19th Century notion of sovereignty that no longer exists!

    If so, it will likely – in the event of a “train crash” Brexit – prove a master stroke! You see, a “train crash” Brexit will destroy the electoral prospects of the Tories. Please note, those who will be 18 in 2019 are 16 today. This means that a whole generation of teenagers now unable to vote will have the vote and following a “train crash” Brexit will be well motivated to do so! At the same time, many of the elderly voters who voted Brexit in 2016 will, three years later, be dead.

    One of the things that many Brexiteers pointed out during the referendum campaign was that the EU needs the UK’s financial contributions and also the UK’s trade because of the deficit in manufactured goods the UK has with the EU.
    They are of course correct!
    The worry is this: That EU politicians aware of the importance of the UK to the EU AND their priority of keeping the Eurozone in existence may well conclude that a short term (3 months or so) period of major economic and trade disruption following a “train crash” Brexit – which would hurt EU businesses and economies as well as British business and it’s economy – would be worth it if it resulted in the UK re-entering the EU and entering the Eurozone.

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