• Approaching Armageddon?

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    As the US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley demands more sanctions be taken against North Korea (http://nypost.com/2017/09/04/haley-urges-strongest-possible-measures-against-north-korea/) her boss, President Trump suggests that the US may stop all trade with any country doing business with North Korea. This as the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/04/business/trump-china-north-korea-trade.html) points out is problematical to say the least as North Korea’s largest trading partner is China and stopping trade with China is another thing altogether.

    The FACT is that China is not prepared to participate in the collapse of the North Korean state. As for President Trump threatening a trade halt with China, the effect of the US economy would he as severe as the effect on the Chinese economy. This truly would be a huge act of self harm. Furthermore, the Chinese leadership will simply not succumb to President Trump’s threats. To do so would cause the Chinese Communist party’s leaders huge loss of face. This is something they will not accept.

    Since President Trump cannot stop all trade with North Korea, he will have to concentrate on the nuclear trade. The US administration has suggested that they will go after the banks involved.

    The USA has no good options here.

    IF the sanctions do succeed in toppling the North Korean regime the regime itself will know that for them the end will be a gruesome one. Whilst such as the British Gazette have talked about Mr Cameron falling on his sword, this is a metaphorical sword! For Mr Kim it would be an actual sharp steel sword, probably fixed at the hilt into concrete, with the Unfortunate Mr Kim’s great bulk being slowly lowered onto it! Probably more than once!

    Knowing that such a gruesome fate as the above would face him, Mr Kim could decide to launch a strike against his enemies – most likely Japan – inviting Mr Trump’s nuclear retaliation.

    It could even be that Mr Trump may have this in mind: Force Mr Kim into making the first move – which he will hope will be successfully intercepted by anti ballistic missiles – and then use this as an excuse to annihilate the North Korean regime and it’s nuclear facilities.

    By this strategy, Mr Trump, like a certain Kaiser Wilhelm II would be seeking to avoid the “Kriegsschuldfrage” (war guilt). In Mr Trump’s case, he may well have the spectre of being arraigned before the International Criminal Court in the Hague! Notwithstanding the fact that the USA is not party to this.

    One begins to wonder if there are people in Washington DC who are actually thinking of potential business opportunities in the case of a collapse of the DPRK and the takeover of it’s territory by South Korea, backed by US forces. We know that Mr Trump was a property developer. Are there people in the USA who are actually thinking along these lines?

    Do they expect China – and Russia – to passively stand by?

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