• Sabotaging Brexit: Long Term Gain For Short Term Pain?

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    Above, the actress Dame Angelina Jolie in the 2005 film, Mr & Mrs Smith. NB: There is NO SUCH THING as a honorary knighthood or “damehood”. Ms Jolie is a Dame Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George (DCMG). The fiction of “honorary” was concocted at the insistence of the Truman administration when the Atlee government suggested that US service chiefs be honoured with knighthoods following WW2.

    Of course the fiction of “honorary knighthoods” is now merely one of a long line of fictions surrounding the governance of this country. Knowledge of the sustained and persistent mendacity has spread far beyond the shores of these British Isles.

    Most prominently of course has been Doctor Richard North and Mr Christopher Booker in their seminal work, the Great Deception that quite literally described the deception in chapter and verse!

    More recently, the learned Doctor has been opining about the motives of some of the players involved in what now is known as “the Brexit process”.

    In his post of Saturday 9th September 2017 (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86599) he opines about the possible motivations of some Brexiteers. On his post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86604) he speculates upon the directions of travel of the EU and the UK post Brexit.

    One particular point mentioned in his post today is the announcement of a “special summit” on the first day of Brexit, Saturday 30th March 2019. This is because “Brexit” occurs at midnight on Friday 29th March 2019.
    At this point in time we do not know whether the UK will be in or out of the EEA on that day.
    The presumption of this organ is that the UK will be still in the EEA. This is because, in the British Gazette’s opinion, if the Tory government wishes the UK to leave the EEA it will have to repeat the legislative process used for giving Article 50 notification. Currently the government appears to be of the opinion that EEA membership lapses automatically on Brexit.

    WE BELIEVE IT DOES NOT – HOWEVER WE COULD BE WRONG!

    Thus, IF Madame Mayhem in a fortnight’s time announces her intention to have the UK leave the EEA two things might happen:

    1. The Tory government will simply carry on and formally state it’s belief that EEA withdrawal will happen automatically on Brexit pursuant to the provisions of Article 50.

    2. The Tory government will announce that it will submit formal notification to the EEA of it’s withdrawal at the appropriate time in March 2018.

    IF #1 occurs there will probably be a legal challenge. IF #2 occurs there will certainly be a legal challenge. The Article 50 farce will be duly repeated. The farce may employ the same actors.

    My late father – who had much experience of the justice system in England – always advised that nothing was certain in litigation.

    IF – and this is likely – there is a legal challenge, the Supreme Court (we are assuming the litigants will take it all the way to the Supreme Court) will make ONE of two rulings:

    1. The UK’s holds it’s membership of the EEA by virtue of it’s membership of the EU and thus EEA membership will lapse at the same time as it’s EU membership by dint of Article 50 notification. This is because of the interpretation the court might make of the following words contained in Clause 3 of Article 50: “The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question…” This could be fundamental to the future of the UK. This is because these words might be construed to mean that the UK by invoking Article 50 has given notice of withdrawing from the EU and, inter-alia, all associated treaties. Which in this interpretation would include the Single Market and the Customs Union.
    OR:
    2. The UK is a member of the EEA by virtue of it’s own treaty making power (because at the time the EU did not possess it’s own legal treaty making personality thus requiring the collective use of the treaty making powers of it’s members) and thus the UK will need to use this treaty revoking power should it wish to exit the EEA.
    LET US CONSIDER #2 FIRST (and save the worst case scenario until your blood pressure pills you have just taken have had chance to take effect Dear Reader!):
    IF the Supreme Court makes ruling #2, then it will make ONE of two further rulings:

    1. The government can use the Royal Prerogative and revoke the treaty on EEA membership.
    OR:
    2. Because revoking membership of the EEA has the effect of amending, suspending and/or repealing statutes the government [the Sovereign's ministers] requires the consent of Parliament in the form of an Act of Parliament.

    IF the Supreme Court makes ruling #2 and also further ruling #2, this would mean that a European Economic Area (Withdrawal) Bill will have to be tabled before the House of Commons.

    So what we have to ponder is this: What are the chances of a European Economic Area (Withdrawal) Bill making it onto the statute book?

    Given the parliamentary arithmetic, it is very unlikely that the Bill will get through even on a three line whip. Of course the Tory Chief Whip will inform Madame Mayhem of this. At this point, Madame Mayhem has two options; accept defeat or “go for broke”. “Going for broke” means attaching a No Confidence Motion to the Bill. This means that those Tories intending to vote the Bill down will have to vote for the NCM and thus risk bring down their own government and therefore bringing about another General Election.

    IF the Tories cannot remove the UK from the EEA then a large British cat is thrown into the midst of twenty seven European pigeons!

    The reaction of the EU negotiating team is virtually a foregone conclusion: They will insist that the EU will only recognise the UK’s membership of the EEA IF it accepts the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice! Furthermore, it is likely to insist that the UK remain a member of the Customs Union! There will also be the question of RAL payments.

    This may be referred to as “Associate EU Membership!” The British Gazette would use another phrase: “Dependent Territory Status!” This is because this monumental “dog’s breakfast” Brexit will have ELIMINATED the influence the UK has on EU decision making as it will NOT be a member of the EU and thus will not be represented on the Council of Ministers, European Council or in the European Parliament whilst being subject to all decisions and financial contributions and not being able to make those trade deals government ministers have been talking about!

    This of course is why the Tories may decide to allow the Labour, Lib-Dem and SNP parties to prevent the government from exiting the EEA! Because they see Brexit is going to be the most monumental cock up in government policy since 1721 and the South Sea Bubble and consequently will want to be able to apportion the blame elsewhere!

    There is of course an outcome that is EVEN WORSE than the above!

    That is where the Supreme Court AGREES with the government’s assertion that EEA and all other aspects of the UK’s membership will lapse at the same time as it’s EU membership by dint of Article 50 notification!

    IF the UK does leave the EEA and the Customs Union automatically at midnight Friday 29th March 2019, without any form of transitional arrangement in place then the consequences will be DIRE!
    IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO OVERSTATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF THIS!
    As Herr Juncker said, “…you will regret it!
    A suggestion to whoever happens to be Chairman of UKIP on Saturday 30th March 2019: Hold an “all day” BBQ at Haslar Creek outside Gosport in Hampshire. Haslar Creek is the original “Shit Creek” of the Napoleonic wars era and the UK will be truly up it!
    We now come to the reason for the title and also for the choice of the image; Dame Angelina in dominatrix attire.

    You see, Dr North suggests that there might be a possibility that some entities might be looking to invest in the UK property market were that market to be depressed following a “crash Brexit”. They would of course hope for an eventual recovery in the market so as to enable a considerable capital gain to be made.

    We would suggest that there might be a possibility that some entities might be looking to engineer a situation whereby Euroscepticsm in the UK is dealt a heavy blow and that the UK is forced to reenter a more federalist EU and at the same time, enter the Eurozone.
    WHY?
    Because of the very point Nigel Farage and his colleagues in UKIP have been banging on about for year after year after year! That the EU takes decision making powers from democratically elected legislatures and governments and vests same in the hands of unelected officials!

    You see, to certain entities, people like Dear Old Comrade Corbyn are an anathema! Were Comrade Corbyn to enter 10 Downing Street he would like to do such things as greatly increase expenditure on the public services. He wants to see most public sector workers receive more generous pay rises than Madame Mayhem is prepared to allow!

    You see, some of these entities may want to see the policy of austerity continued. To them a more integrated EU is desirable.

    For that they would be prepared to see a “hard Brexit” for they would know that given the UK is a democracy, Madame Mayhem – or whichever unfortunate succeeds her – could not possibly survive with people having to queue for the basics at the shops, the economy, the stock market and Sterling crashing around them, whilst the M2, M25 and M1 become the world’s largest car and lorry parks!

    It is interesting to note that the EU’s “Special Summit” to be held on Brexit Day is to be held in Sibiu, Romania.

    Sibiu was the capital of the Principality (from 1765 Grand Principality) of Transylvania.

    The Principality of Transylvania was established in 1570 when John II renounced his claim as King of Hungary in the Treaty of Speyer (ratified in 1571) and became a Transylvanian prince. The treaty also recognised that Principality of Transylvania belonged to the Kingdom of Hungary in the sense of public law. Upon the death of John II in 1571 the Royal House of Báthory came to power and ruled Transylvania as princes under the Ottomans; and briefly under Habsburg suzerainty, until 1602. Their rise to power marked the beginning of the Principality of Transylvania as a semi-independent state. A cadet branch of the Báthory family had as one of it’s members Elizabeth Báthory (died 1614), infamous as the “Blood Countess”, one of the first known serial killers.

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