• Brexit: La grande illusion!


    Above the famous sawing a human in half trick.

    When commenting upon Brexit, this organ has had front and centre that most human beings act with a sense of self preservation. Those who throw themselves of such as Beachy Head have clearly become ill and have decided to commit suicide.

    So we assume that Messrs. Davis, Johnson & May have not become suicidal.

    We also keep hold of reality.

    We do this by keeping in mind two mental images:

    The first is a bridge of a steamship amidst a calm and sunny Arctic Ocean. The steamship is a merchantman that was part of the ill-fated convoy PQ-17 after the order had been given for the convoy to scatter, the ships to suffer their individual fates at the hands of Hitler’s U-Boast and Condor bombers. Scattering the convoy was a disaster as most of the merchant ships did not have gyro compasses and many did not have wireless (radio transmitter/receiver) sets. In the high latitudes, magnetic compasses become useless and the merchant ships needed the Royal Navy escorts in those waters as only those gyro equipped ships could actually navigate their way to Murmansk. On one ship the Master came onto the bridge and noticed the ship’s wake. It was straight. He asked the helmsman how he had achieved this. The helmsman replied, “That cloud ahead Sir.”

    In that bright blue sky there was one cloud. They followed that and by some miracle they were able to make Murmansk.

    The second mental image we have had is the image of a magician/illusionist and his assistant.

    Imagine David Dimwit, dressed in white tie and tails and Madame Mayhem in her red gown and fancy shoes. Madame gets into a big long box, her head poking through one end, her feet (and shoes) the other.

    Dimwit takes hold of a saw and begins and the mid point to saw the box in half. We know that Madame is going to emerge unscathed, but we have no idea how Dimwit the magician is going to do it!

    However we have Dr. North and the EU Referendum blog (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86627) stating that this is no illusion! That Dimwit Davis thinks Madame will emerge unscathed but in fact she won’t! As he continues to saw, Dr. North gets increasingly worried!

    What we have to keep in mind is what Dr. North constantly has in his mind. That Flexcit, aka “the Norway Option” aka EFTA+EEA is the ONLY doable and practical Brexit strategy.

    It must be understood and accepted that this is not any more a political discussion. It is a discussion about procedure. Of how something is done.

    Bearing this in mind, this organ has sought to analyse and hypothesise about the Brexit strategy. About how Brexit is going to be achieved, or aborted.

    The problem is that the politicians that have been in office appear not to have been making contingency plans but have been reacting to events and then when those events have not worked out as expected, they are forced into making a new plan. In other words, they are only drawing up Plan “A” and when Plan “A” is clearly inadequate and not appropriate, they make a new Plan “A”. At no point – notwithstanding Madame’s assertion to the contrary at the recent Unfortunate Manchester Speech – do they appear to have made a Plan “B”.

    A note about Madame’s recent assertion about planning for a “No Deal Brexit”. The only possible plan at this late stage is to avert the said exit. It is not physically possible to conduct the necessary negotiations to put into place a WTO default and to then put in place the necessary infrastructure by 29th March 2019. This is NOT going to happen as it is NOT possible for it to happen.

    So, to quote President Donald Trump: “Just what the hell is going on?”

    Well it appears that the Chameleon ordered that no plans or consideration of plans were to be put in place should the British people vote to leave the EU and not remain.

    It also appears that the reason for the delays was to give the politicians chance to figure out what to do next!

    It is likely that Madame Mayhem went to the country to try and secure a large majority to give her the authority to conclude a Brexit deal that was based on reality. In other words, Flexcit.

    Now in a minority position shored up by the DUP, Madame’s position appears untenable.

    One of the prevalent things about the Brexit debate is the plethora of metaphors to describe the situation. There are many. To pick one: A ship heading for the rocks.

    There are three possible outcomes for those aboard a ship heading for the rocks:
    1. The ship’s Master orders a change of course and the rocks are avoided.
    2. The ship’s Master orders “Stop Engines” and the ship slows to a halt and avoids striking the rocks.
    3. The ship’s Master does not order “Stop Engines” nor does he order a change of course and consequently some of the crew and the passengers man the lifeboats and depart the ship before it strikes the rocks with those still aboard being killed but those in the lifeboats not.

    Let us consider all options:

    Option 1 would involve seeing the opposition parties in the Commons force the government into settling Phase One of the negotiations which means agreeing to pay the EU Billions and then negotiation a transition in which the country leaves the EU on 30th March 2019 and remains in the Customs Union and the EEA and under the jurisdiction of the ECJ until it can 1. Negotiate entry into EFTA and 2. Put in place the necessary infrastructure for operating outside the EU’s Customs Union.

    Option 2 would involve seeing the opposition parties in the Commons force the government into bringing about a second EU Referendum following the failure of the talks and the seeming course to a crash Brexit. The second referendum is held and the British People decide to remain in the EU.

    Now there may be those inside and outside the House of Commons who think that revoking Article 50 and informing the EU that Brexit is off will put the clock back to Wednesday 22nd June 2016.

    IT WON’T!

    For the UK to revoke Article 50 requires the agreement of the EU 27. They will have terms. Best case scenario: Loss of all earlier rebates. Worst case scenario: requirement to adopt the Euro by 2020.

    It is worthy of note that the government has been already made aware by the EU that “there is no way back to the status quo ante plebiscite” is evidenced by the shilly-shallying and prevarication been indulged in by them.

    Option 3: The “Suicide option”. Hard Brexit takes place. There is an inevitable General Election. Comrade Prime Minister Corbyn is forced to put the EU’s “Emergency EU Re-entry” to a referendum. The British People vote to re-enter the EU and to enter the Euro. Comrade Corbyn is then unable to adopt his socialist programme and is forced to adopt a programme of austerity.

    The problem is that unless the government acts quickly to ensure that all and sundry know that Flexcit is going to be pursued there will increasing numbers of firms making plans to relocate outside the UK.

    It appears that the government is either trying to devise a situation whereby they can lay the blame for the necessary concessions and sacrifice required to get a deal on the opposition OR that the unable to devise such and have been paralysed into a state of inactivity.

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