• Brexit: Doing the Hokey Cokey!

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    The above video was published on 4th February 2013 by Macmillan ELT Spain.

    Things have come to a pretty pass when the lyrics enthusiastically sung and danced to by the children above can be taken as a valid comment upon the politics of the country!

    In his EU Referendum blog, the excellent Dr. North in his post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86698) gives the internet browsing populace what the BBC likes to call, “a reality check”.

    When Dr. North states; “The only face-saver is the agreement to discuss the transition period, but even then the Tory “Ultras” aren’t going to like what they see – full adoption of the EU acquis, subject to the jurisdiction of the ECJ without any representation. This is the worst of all possible worlds” he is describing in more and different words what this organ has for some time now described as “Purgatory”.

    Dr. North goes on to examine the seeming extraordinary development that has made Northern Ireland the keystone of the UK’s relationship with the EU. Notwithstanding the stated limitations and caveats of the Northern Ireland issue, Dr. North’s description of the Irish tail wagging the British dog appears very much to be the case.

    Madame Mayhem’s official spokesman is talking in riddles when he says: “We are leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market in March 2019. The Prime Minister has also said that, during that implementation period, you can expect things to be broadly similar to how they are today. Precisely what that looks like is obviously a matter for negotiation. We are now moving towards the position where we will be having that negotiation…..”

    OK, let’s analyse that statement: Madame is saying that the UK will be leaving the Customs Union and the Single Market but things will “be broadly similar….”

    Hmmm….

    One conclusion is that “Purgatory” could mean that the “Transitional Treaty” will create a “special case” where the UK is outside the EU, outside the Customs Union and outside the Internal/Single Market and yet for the purposes of trade [and everything else!] will be subject to all the laws, regulations and requirements and will still be able to benefit from all access, rights and privileges that would come to it as a member – with the exception of any representation in the councils, committees, meetings or parliaments (Brussels & Strasbourg).

    It appears that this “Transitional Treaty” will last for 2 years. This being the case, we now have a putative timetable! It is this:

    Brexit: 11:00PM Friday 29th March 2019
    Transitional Treaty comes into effect: 11:00PM Saturday 30th March 2019.
    Transitional Treaty ceases to have effect: 11:00PM Tuesday 30th March 2021.
    Here is a FACT: There is curiously a legal logic here! You see, IF the UK economy is to survive Brexit of the EU, it’s custom’s union and single market, it still has to enjoy MOST access, rights and privileges of the same and yet if the UK was still a member [of the EEA and Customs Union} it could have an arguable case – in international and not EU law – of a voice in the councils thereof. If however it is given non member access, rights and privileges by dint of a Transitional Treaty, it can legally be excluded from having it’s voice heard and taken account of!

    Thus it will be the Transitional Treaty that will give effect to the UK’s new dependent territory status!

    Here is another FACT: NO “deep and comprehensive” Free Trade Agreement can ever be negotiated, agreed and ratified by all the parties in 2 years or less!

    What is likely IF this takes place is that the Transitional Treaty will have extension or renewal clauses!

    Whether or not Madame (or her replacement) will invoke an extension clause will depend on the date of the next General Election!

    Of course, the “Transtional Treaty” will place the UK in a position where the alternatives are:

    1. Join EFTA, maintain membership of the EEA and have mainland Britain LEAVE the EU’s Custom’s Union (to the chagrin of the DUP).

    2. Rejoin the EU and join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area!

    What is likely IF this takes place is that the Transitional Treaty will have extension or renewal clauses!

    Whether or not Madame (or her replacement) will invoke an extension clause will depend on the date of the next General Election!

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