• Brexit delayed or reversed: “That’s entirely a matter for the British parliament and the British people.”


    Given the extraordinary lack of intelligent comment about Brexit in the UK (as Dr. North points out: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86704) one finds that the Irish Times is a better source than the [London] Times.

    This newspaper reports that when asked if he thought Brexit could be delayed or reversed, the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar said: “That’s entirely a matter for the British parliament and the British people.”
    GOTO: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/irish-desire-for-close-uk-ties-after-brexit-not-shared-across-eu-varadkar-1.3328469
    Taoiseach Varadkar went onto state: “There does seem to be quite divergent opinions on what that should look like. Needless to say from an Irish point of view, we’d like it look as much like the current relationship as possible, but that wouldn’t necessarily be the view of everyone…..”
    British Gazette comment: In his blogpost yesterday (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86703), Dr. North commenting about the vote on Wednesday that Parliament should have a say on the Brexit deal tended to dismiss it. Herewith:

    “As much as anything then, yesterday’s vote represented nothing very much, other than an opportunity for MPs to indulge in yet more grandstanding – which is about the only thing they’re any good for. It also reflected the inwards-looking nature of the institution and the chronic parochialism which elevates local interests above far more important events happening elsewhere. Having awarded themselves this vote, if Dominic Grieve’s amendment survives (which it probably won’t), they could severely damage the withdrawal process. Once the Article 50 settlement has been concluded, there is no provision for it to be renegotiated if any of the parties reject it, leaving the possibility of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

    In theory, MPs could rescue us from a bad deal, but since its effects could not begin to match the consequences of no deal, MPs have awarded themselves the power to turn a crisis into a potential disaster – all in the name of democracy. What happens, for instance, if the European Council and Parliament approve the deal and Westminster says “no”?”

    A good question. BUT:

    Taoiseach Varadkar has reported upon a most obvious situation: That amongst the EU 27 there will be 27 different views!

    The points to note here are Taoiseach Varadkar’s belief that reversing Brexit is a matter for the UK and the seeming level of complete ignorance of what the actual situation is between the UK and the EU not only of cabinet ministers, but of MP’s – on both sides of the House and of the mainstream media.

    The collective delusion appears to be that “Phase 2” will include the negotiation of Madame’s “deep and special relationship” and the seeming belief that the agreement reached will herald the start of an “implementation period” of the deal.

    As Dr. North points out: No it won’t! What will be negotiated and hopefully concluded during “Phase 2” is a “Transition Treaty” which as the EU points out will govern the relationship between the UK and the EU when it becomes a Third Country at 11:00PM on Friday 29th March 2019.

    It will be during this transition period that negotiations will take place on the “deep and special relationship”!

    There is NO POSSIBILITY that this “deep and special relationship” can be negotiated and concluded and ratified inside the suggested two years of the transition, UNLESS this “deep and special relationship” takes the form of Flexcit, aka EEA + EFTA. Such an arrangement could be concluded very quickly. The two years would be required to put in place the necessary border posts as a Flexcit deal means the UK is outside the EU’s Customs Union and that means the French, the Irish and everybody else must put the necessary border posts in place!

    This of course brings us right back to the Irish question of the border!

    It DOES NOT require the wisdom of Solomon to figure out that inclusion of an “stop the Brexit process clause could be included in the text of the Transitional Treaty! Now whilst the 27 EU may not think it diplomatic for them to insist of such a phrase (that Article 50 can be revoked by the UK up to 23:59 CET on Friday 29th March 2019) being inserted into the text – the conventions of diplomacy being that such would properly be the prerogative of the UK, it may well be that prompted by British Europhile MEP’s of which there are several, the European Parliament will make insertion of such a clause a requirement!

    This being the case, the House of Commons may insist on a second referendum!

    Whilst the Tory government would presumably oppose such, if sufficient numbers of Europhile Tory MPs rebel a three line whip there may well be a second referendum on reversing Brexit!

    When would such a vote take place?

    Well the last possible moment would be Thursday 28th March 2019!
    Given the rumblings from the Europhiles the voters may well back off from Brexit.
    Imagine it: The polls close at 10:00PM that day. The result is declared around 5:30AM on Brexit Day and at 11:00AM the Prime Minister of the Brexit secretary formerly notify that the Reversal Clause under the withdrawal agreement is invoked and Brexit is off!

    If Madame is still PM on that day, she will presumably clasp the asp to her bosom and go!

    NB: Ladies do not fall on swords! They take their cue from the example of Cleopatra, Queen of Egypt.

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