• Michel Barnier’s Christmas present: A boxed in Brexit?

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    Above, a cat doing what most of the journalists are doing in relation to provision of a proper Brexit coverage.

    At his press conference yesterday, Michel Barnier was a lot more communicative than Madame Mayhem in the Commons. His words were however French. Madame may have been using English, although some commentators has suggested it was gibberish!
    Michel Barnier did however conclude with just a few words in English:
    “Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all of you.”
    We are sure that all (only some, surely – Ed.) British Gazette readers would wish to reciprocate. After all it is the Season of Good Will towards ALL men – Frenchmen included!
    In his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86711), Dr. North wonders whether or not Michel Barnier was indulging in a little irony here.
    What is clear is this: “They buy more from us than we do from them!” is the fig leaf that those Brexiteers campaigning for Madame’s “deep and comprehensive free trade agreement” use to cover their nakedness.
    As reported back in October, by Politics Home (https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/90097/eu-will-not-offer-theresa-may-bespoke-trade-deal-warns-uks) Sir Ivan Rogers said the Government had been “screwed” over the sequencing of negotiations by rushing to trigger Article 50.

    It must now becoming clear to all sentient creatures with at least two functioning brain cells that Sir Ivan quit his post as he foresaw what a disaster Madame was taking the country towards and wanted no part of it, for he knew darn well that the politicians would seek to pin the blame for the biggest and most monumental cock-up in British government policy since August 1721 on anybody and everybody but themselves! And Sir Ivan did not want to be in the firing line!

    Here are the FACTS:

    #1 – The EU will DICTATE the terms of the Transition Treaty. They will be as stated: The UK will assume the role of VASSAL STATE until 11:00PM GMT Thursday 31st December 2020 (New Year’s Eve).

    #2 – The EU WILL NOT COMMENCE negotiations for Madame’s beloved “deep and comprehensive free trade agreement” until AFTER 11:00PM GMT Friday 29th March 2019.

    Now then, it is of FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE for all Brexiteers to take note of these two FACTS and to fully understand the implications of them!

    This is because IF Madame Mayhem DOES NOT negotiate a “Norway Option” aka EEA+EFTA aka Flexcit the UK will be offered two choices. They will be:

    #1 – A Canada type Free Trade Deal (adapted to the UK)

    #2 – A “Hard (no deal) Brexit”.

    Now then, it is of FUNDAMENTAL IMPORTANCE for all Brexiteers to take note of this FACT and to fully understand the implications of it!

    - 11:00PM GMT Friday 29th March 2019 marks a Rubicon for the UK. There is of course here a certain classical irony to the use of this word.
    As he looks at the clock in his office mark the hour, one wonders if Foreign Secretary Johnson will utter Julius Caesar’s words, “alea iacta est” (the die is cast) for this will, as for Caesar mark the point of no return for the UK from the provisions it had negotiated subsequent to the Treaty of Rome.

    This is because at that point, in International Law, the UK will have left the EU. Not that any businessman will notice it on Saturday 30th March 2019!

    Of course, there will be another choice presented to the UK other than a Canada type deal and a “no deal”. This is to re-enter the EU!

    As the British Gazette has REPEATEDLY pointed out, this will be on the basis that it is a NEW member. This will require the UK to enter the Eurozone – that will have developed during the UK’s transition – and the Schengen Area! Northern Ireland will have the opportunity of an optout for as long as the Irish Republic remains outside the Schengen Area!

    And Flexcit?

    Yes. The UK will be able to negotiate re-entry into EFTA and the EEA. However, this takes TIME!

    This all comes back to what the British Gazette has been stating over and over and over again!

    That Flexcit, aka “the Norway option” aka EFTA+EEA is the ONLY doable, practical Brexit strategy! Unless of course you are prepared to take the economic hit offered by a Canada type deal or the economic chaos caused by a “Hard (no deal) Brexit”.

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