• Brexit: Madame Mayhem and five card stud poker?

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    Above – a montage of all Bonds playing poker.

    One of the things that will stick in the kinds of most who watched the opening ceremony of the 2012 London Olympics, was the TV sketch put on staring Her Majesty the Queen and a certain Mr Daniel Craig reprising his role as Commander James Bond, RN – Secret Agent and “Licensed to Kill.” I am sure I was not alone at being gob-smacked when the lady turned round to reveal it was indeed HM and not one of the many look-a-likes.

    It is my fervent wish that I will be equally gob-smacked if Brexit happens propitiously and not disastrously. I know this online resurrection of the 1926 strike breaking newspaper and the earlier 1779 Sunday newspaper has “gone on a bit” about the dangers that appear to be heading the UK’s way but this is because we care (along with our readers) that the UK does not end up over an economic cliff!
    The British Gazette is not alone. Today’s excellent offering by Dr. North is a “must read”. GOTO: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86794
    We will continue to explore and examine what is going on.

    The reason for our use of the montage image is that one of the many familiar scenes in many a Bond movie is our hero playing poker. Always for prodigious sums of money!

    One of the familiar themes of previous articles has been around the question of whether or not Madame is a fool (she is unaware of the dangers implicit in her course of action) or a fraud (she is aware of the dangers implicit in her course of action and is carrying on due to a malign or corrupt motive). Today’s article raises another possibility: Is she in fact a founder?

    By founder we mean one who founds a new course (the implication being a successful one) for the UK?
    Allow us to draw your attention Dear Reader to the following report: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3337657-saudi-aramco-signs-preliminary-gas-deal-shell
    This concerns the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO (initial public offering).
    In addition GOTO: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/saudi-oil-minister-hints-aramco-ipo-could-be-delayed-until-2019
    The floatation of Saudi Aramco will be a major corporate event. When questioned, Khalid Al-Falih Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister stated: “The only certain thing about the Saudi Aramco IPO is that a) it will happen, b) the anchor market will be the Tadawul exchange in Saudi Arabia….”

    Importantly, he did not inform the interviewer which stock market other than the Tadawul exchange the shares would be quoted on. The two centres that are thought to be in the running are London and New York with many suggesting that both bourses will be used.

    Of course the sure answer is this: WAIT AND SEE!

    We do know that a small proportion of the stock is going to be sold.

    The speculation – and it is only that, speculation – is that this may be the start of things. Rather than speculate upon a possible timetable, allow us to put forward this probably fanciful hypothetical scenario:

    Brexit happens and the UK enters the Tories call the “implementation period” and what this organ has called “Purgatory”. However after Purgatory the UK emerges with a Canada style FTA. This will result in the loss of many UK based manufacturing jobs because the car manufacturers need to be in the single/internal market to operate competitively. The City of London will loose a considerable portion of European Union banking and financial business.

    So far. So bad!

    However: Saudi Aramco that is incorporated in Saudi Arabia reincorporates in England and Wales! It becomes Saudi Aramco PLC! Furthermore Saudi Arabia decides to sell it’s oil in GBP and NOT USD!

    What would happen to Sterling?

    It would go up in value.

    What would happen to the UK’s Credit Rating?

    It would go up!

    Let us at this point state that these hypothetical developments appear unlikely. However, were such events to take place the economic and geopolitical effects would be profound. And not just for the UK but importantly for the USA and the EU. There is a long established relationship between what was the British Empire and is now the UK and the House of Saud. The House of Saud had been very influential in forming modern Britain. This via it’s funding of mosques and madrasahs and the promotion of Wahhabism, the most conservative strain of Islam.

    As the Muslim demographic continues to grow in the UK it will have an ever greater influence (and vote) in public affairs and policy.

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