• Brexit: Now is the winter of our discontent………

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    Above, Gerard Batten, MEP and UKIP Leader.

    Meteorological autumn begins the 1st September and ends on 30th November each year and thus meteorological winter begins the 1st December each year.

    At a quarter past five in the afternoon on 6th June 2018, I and other members of UKIP who had allowed their email addresses to be used for communication received a “GENERAL ELECTION RED ALERT” – which in the established “netiquet” is shouting.

    It was from UKIP’s leader Gerard Batten. Mr Batten declared; “There is good reason to believe that Mrs May could call a snap General Election this Autumn.”
    British Gazette comment: He MIGHT be right about the election but as to Madame Mayhem calling it herself depends upon whether she is Signorina Machiavelli or Mrs Micawber!
    What is not in doubt is that we are progressing to a point where the farce that is playing at the Palace of Westminster reaches the end of it’s run!

    Important factors in this farce are dates. Dates that is of series of events due to take place. A study of the calendar will discern the possibilities of a general election.

    The first set of dates we have to consider is the party conference season. Herewith the dates and venues:

    - Liberal Democrats – Saturday 15th September – Tuesday 18th September 2018 at the Brighton Centre
    - Labour – Sunday 23rd September to Wednesday 26th September 2018 at the ACC Liverpool
    - UKIP – Friday 21st September to Saturday 22nd September 2018 at the International Convention – Centre, Birmingham
    - Conservatives – Sunday 30th September to Wednesday 3rd October 2018 at the International Convention Centre, Birmingham
    - Greens – Friday 5th October to Sunday 7th October 2018 at Bristol City Hall

    The most important dates and venues are those of the European Council. The European Council meets on Thursday 28th June to Friday 29th June 2018 and then on Wednesday 17th October to Thursday 18th October 2018 both meetings held at the EU HQ, Brussels.
    It is on Thursday 18th October 2018 that the end of the negotiating road is likely to be reached.
    This is because at the very start of the Article 50 Brexit process the EU said that 6 months (October 2018 to March 2019) were required for the ratification process of withdrawal and any free trade treaty that was agreed.

    Disregarding in their entirety the wishes of the UK’s politicians, there is no doubt whatsoever that many businessmen and politicians want a negotiated and orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU.

    The FACT is that there have been NO effective negotiations between the EU and the UK since Wednesday 29rd March 2017 when HMG triggered Article 50!

    On Thursday, we opined (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2018/06/07/procrastination-is-the-thief-of-time-charles-dickens-david-copperfield/) that Madame Mayhem would be given an ultimatum in the form of a EU drafted withdrawal and free trade agreement.

    This ultimatum might be handed to her on Friday 29th June 2018 but it is more likely to be handed to her on Thursday 18th October 2018.

    If Madame is handed such the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will have two choices. They will be:

    #1: Accept the ultimatum and ratify it into law.

    #2: Do not accept the ultimatum and ratify it into law.

    IT REALLY WILL BE THAT SIMPLE!

    At that point Madame can chose to accept the responsibility of government and to make a decision one way or the other or she can choose to ABDICATE the responsibility of government and to allow the House of Commons and House of Lords to make the decision for her. This would be done by placing the ultimatum text as a Bill before the House of Commons as a government bill – to allow sufficient time but to declare that there will be no whip applied to the government benches.

    What the attitude of Comrade Corbyn will be to such an abdication is up for speculation. It is possible that he will reciprocate. The attitude of the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and Plaid Cymru will be a foregone conclusion.

    The attitude of the DUP will depend upon the provisions relating to the border with Ireland. If that border lies in the Irish Sea the DUP will reject it.

    IF Madame decides that she cannot accept the responsibility of government and to make a decision one way or the other and she cannot choose to abdicate the responsibility of government (it would be electorally catastrophic for the Tories after all), she may decide to put the issue to the country in the form of a general election.

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