• Brexit: Revolutions eat their children!

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    It was Jacques Mallet du Pan who coined the adage, “A l’exemple de Saturne, la révolution dévore ses enfants” (…like Saturn, the Revolution devours its children…) in his 1793 essay, “Considérations sur la nature de la Révolution de France, et sur les causes qui en prolongent la durée.”

    This organ has devoted many cyber column inches to suggesting possible outcomes to the Brexit negotiations – and the lack thereof!

    Thus as we await the results of the European Council Meeting on Friday 29th June 2018, rather than speculate on possible outcomes, let us start by examining the range of outcomes that are physically/realistically possible. British Gazette readers may or may not be surprised to know that there are just two! They are:

    #1: Chaos! This would result from a hard or no deal Brexit.

    #2: No significant change! This would result from what some call “The Transition Agreement” and others (Madame Mayhem) call “The Implementation Agreement”. Madame’s difficulty being however she will not at the start of this have anything to implement! Or transition to for that matter – unless of course one’s intention is to transition to chaos!

    The problem for Madame – and the rest of us in the UK – is that whatever she wishes to call it, this agreement will take the form of a treaty and will have to be ratified by all 27 EU Member States plus the UK and that this takes time!

    And time is something which is rapidly running out!

    The EU had pencilled in the period between the EU Council meeting in October 2018 and Brexit Day as the time the agreements would be ratified by all concerned. IF they have nothing to ratify then we would expect the markets to take over and the result would be as described earlier.
    GOTO: http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2018/06/22/brexit-youve-ordered-it-now-youll-pay-for-it/
    Of course, were #1 to come about the government would fall and a general election would ensue. In such chaotic and economically and financially ruinous circumstances the outcome of the election would be completely open!

    It is likely that in such circumstances the EU would put forward and offer of emergency re-entry (into the EU) and entry into the Eurozone. This would prove attractive for many businesses and individuals for whilst today the Sterling:Euro exchange rate is £1.13 to €1, Sterling would have fallen far below the Euro in value and thus the prospect of parity (£1:€1) would be attractive.

    If #2 comes about, Madame will have bought time, which will be used to negotiate a treaty which would govern the UK’s relationship with the EU post transition.

    Again, Madame’s options are limited to three! They are:

    #1: A Canada style agreement would result in an economic downturn.

    #2: Flexcit (EEA+EFTA) would represent continuity.

    #3: “No deal” or as UKIP call it, “WTO Terms”. This means chaos and the likelihood is that the UK would end up back in the EU but as a member of the Eurozone.

    Of course, UKIP want Canada ++++++ where the UK has all of the advantages of EU membership but with none of the costs. This is NOT possible!

    The relevance of the title to all this is of course clear: The turmoil and/or downturn will destroy the Tories and of course UKIP as electoral forces!

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