• That Brexit deal: Curiouser & curiouser!


    As Doctor Richard North points out in his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87054), all the huffing and puffing about “the deal” is just a tad premature as none of us outside the close confines of #10 Downing Street, the Cabinet Office, the Chief Whip’s Office, the EU Conmission [not a typo!], the Taoiseach and of course, der Bundeskanzleramt, Willy-Brandt-Straße 1, Tiergarten, Mitte, 10557 Berlin, Deutschland!

    Having stated thus however, any optimism is completely inappropriate for as Doctor North has stated; “…….there is no form of words in the withdrawal agreement that can simultaneously satisfy the UK government, the Westminster Parliament, the DUP and the EU…….”

    Doctor North uses the phrase “the invisible deal”. It is at the moment although trying to keep the details secret will be rather like trying to conceal a real live – and kicking – tyrannosaurus rex in Hyde Park! As such, the politicians such as Arlene Foster are digging themselves into their positions prior to what they regard as an inevitable capitulation to the EU.

    We know that there is to be a full cabinet meeting this afternoon. Presumably Madame will seek to unite the cabinet in the time honoured fashion by declaring, “……that all members not able to support the deal shall indicate this by submitting their resignations……”

    It could well be that the cabinet meeting may last some time so the results will not be known in time for the BBC News at 6:00PM and we will have to wait until the 10:00PM News to discover if Madame still has a functioning government.

    The one thing we can be sure of is that the deal has to be presented to Parliament at some stage and when that happens it appears that the DUP will oppose it, the Labour Party will oppose it and the ERG will oppose it.

    Faced with the problem of presenting a deeply divisive Bill to the Commons, Madame may well seek to drive the Bill through in the time honoured fashion of attaching a confidence motion to it. Here of course things have changed for in the past this would have led to an immediate collapse and a general election but the Chameleon’s tampering with the constitution means that there is a fortnight to secure the passing of a motion of confidence in HMG.

    Faced with almost certain defeat at a general election many Tories will look to trying to defuse the unexploded bomb that is Brexit by seeking a second referendum. Of course many Labour MPs want this as well. However comrades Corbyn and McDonnell sensing blood will be seeking to avoid this and to force a general election.

    Central to the unfolding events will be the judgement of the European Court of Justice on whether the UK has the ability to revoke it’s Article 50 Notification unilaterally.

    All along this organ has suggested that we are witness to “un grand coup de théâtre” being staged at the Palace of Westminster.

    As all comedians and actors know, timing is crucial for a good performance. Therefore this organ will not be one little bit surprised if the ECJ announces that the UK can unilaterally withdraw it’s Article 50 notification but that this must be through the repeal of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (c. 16) and will go on to state that should this take place the terms of the UK’s membership will be as it was before Article 50 notification and that all rebates and provisions relating to same will be unaffected.
    Thus it may well be that the second referendum will take place with the voters voting to have HMG accept “the deal” or mandate (advisedly) HMG to rescind Article 50 notification.

    Your Editor will stick his neck out on this and state that whatever has emanated from Tory Party Head Office before, Tory MPs, like turkeys are not in the habit of voting for an early Christmas and a popular vote on the deal will get them off the hook. You see, it appears that Madame has manoeuvred her party into a position where it cannot accept the deal she that has been handed to her by the EU Conmission. Should Parliament vote the deal down, Madame has but two choices:

    #1: acquiesce and allow a general election to take place.

    #2: acquiesce and allow a second referendum to take place.

    To a great extent, her power to decide on this choice will be beyond her control. It will lie in Parliament and it’s MPs. There is no doubt that Messrs. Corbyn & McDonnell will be seeking to bring about a general election. There is no doubt that Sad Vince of that Cable and his band of Remaniacs aided and abetted by Strict Mistress Sturgeon and her acolytes in the Commons will seek a second referendum.

    For the moment we will all have to:

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