• Brexit and the Tory leadership election: Well, it is the pantomime season!


    Above, Boris the Buffoon, currently the bookies favourite.

    One of the things that help make Christmas what it is is that particularly British tradition of pantomime.

    In the village where I now live, we have a thriving community. In addition to the parish church, we have a community centre as well as a parish hall. We have a post office and a separate village stores – both of which are keeping their financial heads above water. We have three public houses all of which again are keeping their financial heads above water. The tin mine attached to the village, now closed of course, operates as a visitor attraction throughout the year and has an excellent café. There are a couple more restaurants. We have a regular bus service that terminates over the way from the railway station which the main line up to London. Ours is not a “chocolate box” village and as such does not have a large number of holiday homes or lets: As a consequence our village is alive throughout the year which is evidenced by our village school that has a good number of pupils and is thus sustainable.

    We have many talented people in our little community which means we have an excellent village “silver band” – aka “brass band” north of the Watford Gap – and we have an amateur dramatic society which puts on an annual pantomime.

    The pantomime is put on every year in the parish hall that has a stage at one end of it.

    Pantomime can confuse Americans. For instance we have the “pantomime dame” and in our productions there are always two or three. Then we have the “principal boy” again of which we have generally have two. These are examples of course of cross dressing but not in the manner of such as drag queens that Americans are familiar with. The “pantomime dame” is a farcical character who is very obviously a man. The “principal boy” is always a young lady wearing a costume that shows of her feminine legs.

    In other words, in a pantomime, all is NOT what it first seems!

    This year, the company of Thespians known as the Conservative Party (Website: https://www.conservatives.com/) have decided to put on a pantomime themselves. Playing at the Palace of Westminster it promises to be a barrel of laughs! The best thing about is is that the tickets are free! Commentary is provided Laura Kuenssberg, aka Mrs James Kelly (https://twitter.com/bbclaurak) and numerous others.
    In our article yesterday (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2018/12/11/carry-on-kicking-the-can-down-the-road/) we speculated that Madame would face a leadership challenge.
    It was not long in coming!
    The reason of course was not just Madame halting the debate and the “meaningful vote” but her blatantly obvious tactic of kicking the can down the road into the new year to close off all other options to her rebellious backbenchers other than her deal or no deal!

    In doing this she had managed to pull of a minor miracle: to unite such as Anna Soubry the Member for Broxtowe and Jacob Rees-Mogg the Member for North East Somerset against her!

    And here we have the link to the traditional British pantomime!

    You see, Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg have a problem. A big problem. Fortunaetly for them not all is lost. They are intelligent people. Anna is a criminal law barrister and Jacob read History at Trinity College, Oxford. If you are dim these are not your life paths!

    Therefore we can be fairly confident in predicting that these two will have figured out already – and thus do not need this organ to advise them – that whilst they want two completely different outcomes for the UK, if they have any hope whatsoever of achieving them, it will have to be through a common means, or in this case, candidate. Additionally both will know that they as Tories are up against the clock. As Doctor Richard North points out in his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87082), Brussels is effectively closed over the Christmas holiday. Thus the Tories have chosen the least worst time to have a leadership election. However, the Christmas Season is not long and certainly not long enough to have a leadership election that goes out to the Tory party membership! Thus, it will have to be another “coronation”.

    This organ differs from the excellent and leaned doctor however in that the shenanigans we are now witnessing are actually of vital importance for whilst the facts cannot be changed, the personality who decides what to do about those facts looks set to.

    The other thing the two will have figured out is that whoever occupies Number 10 in the New Year they have a limited number of options!

    They have to face three deeply unpalatable FACTS!

    FACT #1: The DUP will NOT support Madame Mayhem’s Brexit Deal! The one thing one can count on about the DUP is that they do not bluff!

    FACT #2: The EU will NOT reopen negotiations on Madame Mayhem’s Brexit Deal! That means that ANY attempt at a renegotiation by Madame’s successor will FAIL!

    FACT #3: Following the European Committee of Juggling’s ruling that the UK can revoke Article 50 unilaterally this option is time limited and expires at 11PM on Friday 29th March 2019. What this means is this: Should Madame’s successor decide that more time is needed (for a second referendum) they would have to ask this of the EU 27. Now one thing the two will not need this organ to point out to them is that ANY request to the EU comes with a price tag! So, whilst the UK can appear to revoke A50 without the EU27s consent, any request for an extension WILL come with demands – such as those the Spanish WILL seek on Gibraltar!

    What this means is this: Madame, by her actions has managed to close off the options as Mrs Foster will not support the one Brexit route that avoids a No Deal!

    So the question that Anna and Jacob have to answer is this: What the [redacted] do we do now?

    Mrs Foster will demand of Madame’s successor a renegotiation!

    Madame’s successor knows that Comrade Corbyn will be waiting to pounce as what he wants is a General Election.

    Madame’s successor knows that they need Mrs Foster’s support!

    It therefore looks that a second referendum is the only way out for Anna and Jacob. Any inclusion as an option on the ballot paper of Madame’s deal will require the consent of Mrs Foster! Unlikely!

    Therefore, it now looks like a binary choice:

    #1: Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU on existing terms.

    #2: Proceed with Brexit and have the government renegotiate Madame’s deal to make it acceptable (removing the backstop) and failing that undertake a No Deal Brexit.

    This of course will be a betrayal of Brexit as sadly, the ONLY Brexit strategy available is Madame’s deeply unpalatable deal that this organ has described already as Purgatory! Therefore Remainer Anna will be content as Remain is on the ballot paper and Brexiteer Boris will be content as what a Sinn Féin spokeperson describes as a “Unicorn Brexit” will be on the ballot paper!
    As we said, this is the pantomime season!
    As the Chinese like to say to their enemies: May you live in interesting times!

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