• Brexit: Anything can happen in the next 52 days!


    An embarrassing memory: The above makes me cringe that even as a 9 year old I thought this was good TV!

    Yesterday the amateur dramatic society in our village staged it’s first performance of this year’s pantomime. This year it runs from Tuesday 5th to Saturday 9th February. I did not attend the 2014 performance (“Up the Beanstalk”) staged between Tuesday 28th January to Saturday 1st February 2014 as I was in Leeds at the time and did not note into my new home until Sunday 9th February 2014. However, I attended their performances that have been put on in the first week of February since then. Before last night’s performance I had attended the final performance on the Saturday evening. Last night it was the first performance. Each – a first and a final performance has it’s own special quality that centres on the nature of the ad libs.

    Of course, this year was different in another way for earlier that day I had witnessed another pantomime performance, this time delivered single handedly by Madame Mayhem. Viz: It is 37+ minutes of pure unadulterated waffle.
    In fact it can be said that Madame’s performance bore as much relation to reality as the performance I watched later that evening!

    That Madame is running down the clock is obvious to any and all sentient life forms with more than two functioning brain cells. It is what happens when the clock has stopped – or is about to stop – that is the great imponderable.

    Presumably she hopes that her rebellious back benchers will return to the fold and troupe through the lobby to pass the unaltered withdrawal agreement.

    If at some point before 11PM on 29th March 2019 this does not happen/has not happened and a crash out Brexit appears inevitable it is likely that either Madame or other cabinet colleagues will take action to prevent it. How close to 11PM on 29th March 2019 that particular action takes place will determine it’s nature. If it was within a couple of days or even hours, such action would have to constitute revocation of Article 50 by the Royal Prerogative.

    This of course would bring about a constitutional crisis and almost inevitably, a legal challenge.
    This is because the 1688/1689 Declaration of/ Bill of Rights is quite clear: The monarch cannot amend, make, repeal or suspend law without the consent of Parliament!
    However, such an action would be accepted by the European Union immediately. NB: The legal basis of this acceptance would be that the UK’s referendum was ADVISORY. Furthermore, were the revocation carried out at such a late stage that repeal of the numerous Brexit statutes was impossible the UK’s continued membership was maintained by the FACT that the Treaty of Lisbon and EU Law overrides and takes precedence over UK law – which of course breaches the Coronation Oath taken by Her Majesty the Queen to govern us according to our laws and customs and also causing the Privy Councillors to breach their oaths.

    Politically, such an action would almost certainly have to be met with an immediate dissolution of parliament and a General Election.

    The effect on the Tory party of course would be to divide it between those MPs and party members would would have wished for a crash Brexit and those who sought to avoid it. Furthermore, Madame is on record stating that she will not lead the Tories into the next election. Now of course madame has made statements before and has gone back on them, but given her age, her diabetes (type 1) and the sheer stress of the job, it would only be human for her to quit. Of course, were Madame to emulate The Chameleon and resign as Prime Minister and Tory party leader there would have to be an election amongst Tories to select a new leader who would lead them into the general election. However, this could not be done as there is insufficient time. Thus this leaves Madame with the choice of presenting her party with a fait accompli. This would be to seek an audience with Her Majesty the Queen and: A: Tender her resignation as Prime Minister and B: Ask Her Majesty to appoint a nominated successor – probably Amber Rudd the Member for Hastings and Rye and C: Seek a dissolution of Parliament to bring about a General Election. Were Madame to do this, it is very likely that she would first have obtained the agreement of her local constituency party committee to accept Amber Rudd as the Tory’s candidate for Maidenhead. This is because Madame’s majority was 26,457, Ms Rudd’s majority was a mere 346!

    This would present the Tories with a fait accompli as the new Prime Minister would not actually be the leader of her party and with a general election campaign upon them the Tories would either have to accept Ms Rudd as leader or not!

    The Tories would of course seek to lay the blame for the Betrayal of Brexit at the feet of Comrade Corbyn stating that the Withdrawal Agreement would have ensured a good Brexit!

    Whilst the Tories would be inevitably divided by this action, the effects on Labour would also be serious. This is because as many Labour MPs well know, many of their constituents voted Leave! The Tory charge that Labour Remainers are responsible for the betrayal will strike home.

    If Madame carries out the actions described above, may may well conclude it is madness. However there may well be method in such madness. You see, the Tories are not only divided but they are divided between those (the No Dealers) who wish to pursue a policy that could only lead to disaster (for the country and their party) and those who don’t. Clearly some of these MPs and constituency party members could defect to UKIP. Madame may well be hoping that in such circumstances the voters in numerous Tory held and hopeful constituents will be more scared of the prospect of Comrade Corbyn in #10 than their annoyance at the “Brexit Betrayal”.

    The problem for Madame in following this strategy will of course be pointed out by Her Majesty herself who would likely demur at the thought of appointing a Prime Minister in the circumstances she would be presented with.
    The sad FACTS are these: That Brexit has been so badly handled and we are so far down the Article 50 road that there are now NO good outcomes. There are only bad ones!

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