• Brexit: Passing the parcel!

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    As the parliamentary parade of perfidious politicians posture and pose on the nation’s TV screens, one is often left for words. The character Victor Meldrew’s catchphrase, “I don’t believe it!” comes to mind frequently.

    In previous posts we have described events as high farce, comic opera and theatre. All these dramatic creations have at their core, hyperbole and unrealistic plots. Ludicrous situations which sensible people would suggest could never happen in the real world. And yet…….

    For instance take the example of the efforts of Stephen Kinnock (The Younger), been the Member for Aberavon and son of Neil Kinnock (The Elder). Mr Kinnck’s amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill #6 sought to cause the bill to require the representation of the Withdrawal Agreement bill based on the outcome of the inter-party talks which concluded in May 2019. This it appears has now been incorporated within the bill by default! How? Because because MPs opposed to it had not put up tellers! You could not make it up!

    What is clear is this: It is as plain as the nose of Pinocchio’s face that the perfidious politicians (PPs)
    are seeking to pass the parcel of blame for this disaster. None of them want to face the justified opprobrium of the electorate for so royally screwing things up!
    “It wasn’t me/us guv! It was them!”
    IF the Buffoon’s supporters in the House of Lords FAIL to talk out the bill thus causing it to fall when Parliament is prorogued, the bill will become an Act of Parliament. It will require the government to seek an extension. It will also require the Withdrawal Agreement to be presented back to Parliament for ratification. It is likely in these circumstances that an amendment to include a “confirmatory vote” will be put forward by Remainer MPs.

    This will be similar to but fundamentally different from a “second referendum”.

    The Withdrawal Agreement bill will become much larger. It will have three parts:-

    Part 1 will be the Withdrawal Agreement that gives effect to Brexit and causes the UK to become a de-facto dependent territory of the EU for an indefinite period! Remainers like to call this either a “transition period” or an “implementation period” – Patriots call it “purgatory”!

    Part 2 will be a series of repeal clauses. These will be repeal clauses that repeal earlier repel acts enacted in pursuance of Brexit.

    Part 3 will be clauses that set up the “confirmatory vote” including the questions and other aspects that the result will be legally binding. It is this that causes the “confirmatory vote” to be fundamentally different from the referendum held on Thursday 23rd June 2016. That was advisory and was subject to the provisions of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 (c. 41). A clause (or clauses) in Part 3 will specifically exempt the “confirmatory vote” from the provisions of the said act. Contained within Part three will be a clause (or clauses) that determine what parts of the Act will come into effect and when and under what circumstances.

    Following the “confirmatory vote” those parts of the act that take effect will depend upon how the British People voted!

    IF the British People voted to leave the EU by putting Part 1 of the Act into effect, this will be done by the Secretary of State for exiting the EU laying a statutory instrument to that effect before the House of Commons. Part 2 of the Act will not come into force.

    IF the British People voted to remain in the EU, this will be done by the Secretary of State for exiting the EU laying a statutory instrument to formally revoke the UK’s Article 50 notification before the House of Commons. Part 2 of the Act will then come into force and all legislation that was repealed to give effect to Brexit will be repealed. Part 1 of the Act (the Withdrawal Agreement) will not come into force.

    What this means is this: The EU will NOT ratify the Withdrawal Agreement unless and until the UK ratifies it which will only take place if the British People vote for such!
    This is what is known in the EU as democracy!
    IF of course the Buffoon’s supporters in the House of Lords succeed in talking the bill out we will be faced with a different situation on the 14th October 2019! Likely as not the Remainer forces in the Commons will prevail upon Comrade Corbyn to place a No Confidence Motion before the house. Given the Buffoon leads a minority government (even taking into account the DUP) defeat would appear to be inevitable. Traditionally – had not the British constitution been hijacked beforehand by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (c. 14) – this would have resulted in the resignation of the government and a general election. Nowadays it is likely to result in MPs trying to put together an alternative administration. Thus we can expect an “Emergency Government”. This would mean the Buffoon will tender his resignation to HM at Buckingham Palace and HM will then summon A N Other, MP, to Buckingham Palace to form an administration. The new PM will then toddy off to Brussels and ask the EU’s permission to extend Article 50. The EU will likely agree but will insist upon the Withdrawal Agreement being put before the Commons again. Attachment of a “confirmatory vote” would appear inevitable!

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