• Beware the Blandishment Broadcasting Conspiracy!

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    Above, Miss Nyekachi Douglas.

    One of the problems with the mainstream media of which the Blandishment Broadcasting Conspirators lead is that it tends to focus on one issue and one geographic area. At the present time that issue is (understandably) COVID-19 and the area, Western Europe (including post Brexit Britain).

    A few days ago the BBC reported upon a couple of elderly ladies who in 1970 led a famous protest in London during the 1970 “Miss World” contest. Today the event goes unreported in the UK. To the vast majority of the politically correct commentariat, the contest is history and in the past.

    They are of course wrong! The “Miss World” beauty pageant continues and indeed has contestants from the UK. However this goes unreported. You see, other countries have different populations with different attitudes. Thus the above image is of Miss Nyekachi Douglas who was Miss Nigeria 2019.

    The reason why we have this attractive young lady at the top of today’s post is partly to be found in the inclusion of the Shell logo next to her.

    You see, Royal Dutch Shell is currently beset with three difficulties.

    #1: An “oil trade war” between Russia and Saudi Arabia which is driving down the price of crude oil.
    #2: COVID-19 which is causing a massive reduction in demand for refined spirits (what crude oil is turned into at the refineries).
    #3: A market and shareholder expectation of a generous dividend.
    The potential outcomes insofar as the dividend is concerned was outlined in Tuesday’s post (http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2020/03/17/dates-for-my-bank-managers-diary/).
    There will be many small shareholders like myself holding RDS “B” shares who will be nervously awaiting for 1st quarter 2020 dividend on Thursday 30th April. IF the price of crude oil drops much further and demand continues to fall the oil majors will not be able to make any profits.

    This will of course be something that might even bring a smile to the face of Saint Greta of Thunberg – although we doubt it.

    Such a development will of course present a very real financial burden on the shoulders of many retired people who like me have a significant portion of their portfolio invested in Royal Dutch Shell. Many have disregarded the universally received wisdom and have invested their entire nest egg in RDS. This means that on Thursday 30th April 2020, they may find out that they will not receive any income for the year 2020-2021 apart from their occupational and state pensions.

    The financial logic of cancelling the dividend for one fiscal year is compelling.
    #1: If the company is not making a profit it cannot pay a dividend.
    #2: Any such announcement would send the share price much much lower than it’s already depressed levels. At that point the argument for increasing the debt burden (borrowing more money) to buyback it’s own shares becomes overwhelming.

    The point being that all these difficulties are temporary.

    The demand for oil products and the price will rebound. However, in the west, it is possible that the demand may not be restored to the same levels.

    However that is NOT the case elsewhere. You see, countries like Nigeria are fast developing. Their populations are getting richer and are growing in size. This combination results in increased demand.

    You see, with an increasingly wealthy Africa and Indian subcontinent, a fall off in European demand will be offset by an increase in African and Indian demand.

    The year 2020 promises to be a very difficult year for many businesses and people. Especially for everybody at Royal Dutch Shell.
    GOTO: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-New-Saudi-Plan-To-Send-Oil-Prices-Lower.html

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