• Brexit: A failure of politics.

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    The Chinese Year of the Pig starts on Tuesday, 5th February 2019 and ends on Friday 24th January 2020.

    According to Chinese mythology the year will bring be a great year to make money, and a good year to invest! 2019 is going to be full of joy!

    This is certainly something that is believed by Gerard Batten!

    It is not however a belief shared by Doctor Richard North who today points out that the preparations for a “No Deal” Brexit are being made on all sides!
    GOTO: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86936
    Of course, there might be those who have foreseen this and are making preparations to purchase assets (equities, land, property) in the chaotic period following Friday 29th March 2019 in the expectation or hope of a recovery. For these people the Chinese mythology will hold true!

    For the rest of us, the period covered by the “Year of the Pig” will be a year to remember but one we wish we hadn’t!

    This blog is the first to applaud the sterling efforts of Doctor North and endorse his analysis. However we do not go along with all his conclusions!

    In particular we would suggest that the period of the downturn – in the event of a “No Deal Brexit” occurring – would be a temporary downturn.

    This is because of a characteristic of the EU which has actually been brought to the attention of people by Doctor North himself. That is of the EU’s tendency to exploit a crisis to it’s own advantage and ends. This has a term all to itself: A beneficial crisis.

    The British Gazette is firmly of the opinion that a “No Deal Brexit” would for the EU be the “Mother of all beneficial crises!”

    Ever since the British governments of the 1960s and the 1970s followed the direction of the US State Department and joined what was then the European Community the UK has been a thorn in the side of those European politicians that had advocated and worked for a closer deeper integration of member states. Which of course is precisely why the US State Department has always advocated UK membership of the EC/EEC/EU and why Barack Obama was pleased to accept David Chameleon’s invitation to partake in the referendum campaign!

    If a “No Deal Brexit” takes place then the economic, logistical, political and social effects will be severe and the result will be a collapse of the government, a state of emergency, a general election, either a Liberal Democrat majority government or a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats.

    Of course, the idea of a Liberal Democrat majority government would be seen as fanciful even by Liberal Democrats!

    However, this seemingly unlikely event must be viewed in relation to the British political scene.

    Firstly, the desire of politicians to preserve their parliamentary careers.
    Secondly, the nature of the First Past the Post electoral system.

    In the event of a state of emergency and a general election, many Remainer Tories may seek membership of the Lib-Dems on the basis that they can fight their seats as Lib-Dems. Whilst many of the local Lib-Dems will oppose this, Lib-Dem HQ will agree to this. Anybody who has campaigned against the Lib-Dems will know that they are to an extent chameleons themselves in the sense that when they are fighting in a Tory area they emphasis the “rightness” of their policies and in a Labour area they emphasis the “leftness” of their policies. Lib-Dem HO will do this as well known high profile Tories such as Anna Soubrey and Dominic Grieve would raise the profile and bring many Tory voters into the Lib-Dem fold.

    The Tory “Ultras” would presumably merge with UKIP – or vice-versa.

    This leaves the Labour Party! Many Europhile Blairite Labour MPs know their future in Comrade Corbyn’s Labour Party is not secure. It is entirely possible that some of these MPs will seek membership of the Lib-Dems on the basis that they can fight their seats as Lib-Dems. Whilst many of the local Lib-Dems will oppose this, Lib-Dem HQ will agree to this!

    We now have to address the nature of the First Past the Post electoral system. This is something which ironically the Lib-Dems and UKIP see eye-to-eye on! First Past the Post punishes political parties whose support is spread more or less evenly across consistences. First Past the Post punishes political parties whose support is concentrated more or less evenly in certain consistences.

    Thus the Labour Party has long benefited from First Past the Post in it’s working class and later ethnic minority heartlands.

    However this works up to a point! Were a party (Lib-Dems and UKIP) whose support is spread more or less evenly across consistences to achieve a very great degree of support say 45% plus, First Past the Post then works in their favour! This is because political parties whose support is concentrated more or less evenly in certain consistences may find their base protected (those seats like Barnsley Central which majorities that are not only fortified but moated and castleated to boot) but have no chance of picking up seats outside this.

    Of course, a Lib-Dem majority government would not cause the chaos to end. However accepting the inevitable offer from the EU to rejoin the EU on the basis of joining the ERM prior to joining the Eurozone and joining the Schengen Area would!

    This would of course be subject to a referendum!

    Expect the voting age to be lowered to sixteen!

    Of course, there are many Lib-Dems who will be getting very excited over this projection that many in Conservative, Labour and UKIP will regard as loony fantasy! However, they (these Lib-Dems) should be aware that their party will be torn with policy divergence as well!

    This is because a re-entered UK in the ERM would have to adopt a strict austerity regime imposed by the ECB! This will mean an increase in taxes. And a decrease in public spending! As always it will be a case of choosing what and where to axe. Defence will be the hardest hit with the two aircraft carriers being sold to India for scrap value. Along with the six type 45 destroyers – for scrap! The Trident submarines will be laid up and no replacement thus delighting the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, Comrade Corbyn! Donald (Raging Bull) Trump will have something to rage about: cancellation of the UK’s F-35C order!
    However, slashing the defence budget will not be enough. Pensions will have to be cut. The state pension will become means tested.

    In and of themselves, even all this will not be enough! Thus we come to the item that Lib-Dem activists will howl when it is suggested it is cut: Foreign Aid.

    If electoral reform is something the Lib-Dems and UKIP agree on, you can bet your bottom US $ that Foreign Aid is something they disagree on! Propose slashing Foreign Aid at a UKIP conference and you will receive a round of polite applause! Propose slashing Foreign Aid at a Lib-Dem conference and you will receive soft fruit thrown in your general direction!

    Of course, public expenditure cuts are only half the equation. The other half is tax rises! Expect steep increases in the rates of tax. Across the board! Now the Lib-Dems are famous for advocating a local income tax. Because of the time pressures and the established council tax system works the most likely outcome is a reform of council tax to make it more progressive and to raise a lot more money! At the moment council tax is collected across eight bands, A through to H. There are of course twenty six letters in the alphabet so expect a revaluation with 18 more bands! Also expect the owners of second homes to pay double or even more!

    The Lib-Dem Chancellor of the Exchequer will of course quickly become the most unpopular person in the UK! They will have little choice! This is because he or she will have to do that which they are directed to do! By the European Central Bank!

    Thus it is that they will have to remember the fateful words repeated many times by the British Gazette!

    They have been repeated so often that British Gazette readers can repeat them in their sleep!

    “If you hand the government of your country over to a foreign power…. Then what do you expect?”

    Yes! It looks as if 2019 is going to be a pig of a year!