• Madam Mayhem and the Holy Grail of Brexit!

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    Above the famous Black Knight scene from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

    It comes to something doesn’t it when the Prime Minister of the Netherlands (Mark Rutte) makes a reference to the above scene to describe the approach to a major international (and domestic) policy issue by a British Prime Minister!

    It is a very good analogy as it strikes home on more than one level.

    Monty Python and the Holy Grail was of course a comedy based on Arthurian legend. The Holy Grail of course is used to describe an elusive object or goal – often unobtainable – of huge importance that is very much sought after.

    Thus we not only have the comedy of the obdurate, never give up in the face of insuperable odds character of the Black Knight but also the elusive Holy Grail that of course can be a reference to the Perfect Brexit!

    Doctor North has an authoritative and excellent commentary on the decision by Speaker Bercow to disallow “Meaningless Vote #3”.
    GOTO: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87180
    He speculates that recent developments may lead to a shorter rather than longer Article 50 extension. Many are of a contrary opinion.

    Madame it seems is asking for both: a short extension to 30th June with the option of a two year extension.

    At this point, the one certainty is uncertainty. This, in and of itself is doing great damage to the UK economy. Uncertainty in terms of the UK’s present situation is something in which the damage inflicted takes on a compounding nature. The longer it goes on the worse it gets. A short period of uncertainty will cause damage – firms postponing decisions. A longer period will result in closures and moves aboard. Things which may not be reversed.

    Looking at it in economic terms, there will be many who would suggest that the best thing to do is to end uncertainty quickly. To bring things to a head and have done with it. Many who will now describe themselves as “Brexiteers” will suggest that the opinion voiced my many ordinary members of the British Public should be carried out. Namely: “Just get on with it!”

    This of course would refer to a “No Deal Brexit” at 11PM on Friday 29th March 2019. An event just 10 days away! Of course, “getting on with it” in the sense of enacting a “No Deal Brexit” would be catastrophic!

    At this point, it looks like there are no easy options!

    If “Meaningless Vote #3” is put before the House of Fools in the week commencing 24th March, then it is likely to be the last chance of getting the deal through. There is the potential of attaching the amendment suggested by Peter Kyle the Labour Member for Hove and Portslade and Philip Wilson the Labour Member for Sedgefield – a binding “Confirmatory Vote” putting the choice of accepting Madame’s Deal or revoking Article 50 before the voters.

    If “Meaningless Vote #3” is submitted without a confirmatory vote option and is voted down then a No Deal Brexit would appear to be on the cards – if the EU fails to deliver a suitable extension period.

    Remember: ALL 27 EU member states must agree to an extension request.

    It all depends upon the EU27 will agree to at the forthcoming summit. We will know on Thursday! The EU might impose conditions on an extension such as a second referendum.

    It is possible that we might be faced with the abort scenario described in Sunday’s post.
    GOTO: http://www.british-gazette.co.uk/2019/03/17/ukip-heading-for-a-pyrrhic-defeat/