• Brexit: Betting the farm.

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    Above, His late Majesty, King Edward VIII.

    When he was the Prince of Wales, the heir to the throne got himself into a little difficulty. The prince would often indulge in gambling – which was then illegal. The radical press found out and there was some censorious publicity. HM Queen Victoria – who did not have a high opinion of her eldest son and heir – took him to task. The Prince remarked that he was a wealthy man and did not gamble amounts of money he could not comfortably afford to loose. He went on to suggest that were an ordinary man or ordinary means to gamble, such behaviour should rightly be condemned as this was threatening the security of the man’s wife and children due to the threat to his ability to put food on the table.

    When the previous Prime Minister David the Chameleon went up to Brussels and asked for concessions, this organ expected the EU to at least give him a little substantial morsel to avoid the humiliation of sending him away with nothing. Nothing of course was exactly what the unfortunate Chameleon received!

    In doing this, the EU took a gamble. The UK is a valued member of the EU, for notwithstanding the such thorns in the side as a certain Nigel Farrage, the UK’s vast contributions are appreciated and needed. Prudence should have caused the EU to offer something. But they gambled. And lost!

    One of the reason why addictive gambling is such a terrible addiction is that the gambler reinforces his own behaviour. When faced with a loss, the gambler will often seek to regain that loss by gambling again.
    If you recognise yourself, please visit: https://www.gamblersanonymous.org.uk/. Help IS available. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
    The letter triggering Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will be delivered (by hand) to European Council president Donald Tusk today at 12.30.
    Be in no doubt. This is a day of monumental significance.
    No man can foretell the future. This organ has analysed the situation and has postulated outcomes. But until it happens, no one knows for sure.

    There are indications that the EU might be taking the same high risk gambling strategy as it did when the unfortunate Chameleon first came calling.

    They may adopt a robust, pay up £60 billion in RAL payments and offer a very poor deal indeed. One that Madam May will be unable to present as anything other than utter failure.

    Why would the EU do this?

    Because they want the UK to abandon Brexit and come back into the EU fold! This is because they know that most MPs (across the party spectrum) were “Remainers”.

    This may be their gamble:

    That the EU-UK negotiating teams are still at loggerheads dangerously close to March 2019 and looking down the barrel of a no deal Brexit. The British opposition parties then move a no confidence motion and most of the “Remainers (across the party spectrum) vote for it and there is a general election. That there will be Lib-Lab-Green decapitation pacts in the English and Welsh constituencies of Tory “Leave” MPs. That a “Remainer” coalition government is formed and a second referendum is put to the British People with the result that the voters vote “Remain” and Brexit is abandoned.

    Were these events to transpire, it is highly likely that the EU would adopt the procedural device of diplomatic stopping the clock – from the date of the fall of the May government until the reappointment of Madam May or the appointment of a new Prime Minister.

    For the constituency of St Ives and the Isles of Scilly – in which your Editor is based – this may result in “a two horse race” between the sitting member, Tory Derek Thomas and the previous member Liberal-Democrat Andrew George with the Labour and Green parties not putting up a candidate. It is unlikely that the local UKIP party would put up against Mr Thomas in these circumstances.

    IF the EU takes this high risk strategy and if I were a betting man, my money would be on an general election in October 2018.

    This is because the Boundary Commission is due make it’s recommendation to Parliament in September 2018. It will involve a reduction in MPs and will significantly hinder Labour and help the Tories.

    Were Parliament to be dissolved before this, the election would be fought on the current boundaries.