• Brexit: A conspiracy or a cockup? You pays your €64,000,000,000 and you takes your choice!

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    In today’s post on the authoritative EU Referendum blog (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86694), Dr. Richard North offers an excellent analysis of yesterday’s débâcle diplomatique. As “débâcle diplomatique’s” go, this one was a stonker! And then some!

    In examining this “mother of all cock ups” we should pay heed to that famous line by Herr Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission:

    “We all know what to do, we just don’t know how to get re-elected after we’ve done it….”

    What we all have to do at this point is to FACE FACTS!

    They are:

    That the fantasy (of leaving the EU straight into a “free trade deal” outside the EEA) espoused by such as the Right Honourable Mr Redwood, the Honourable Jacob Rees-Mogg and Mr Bolton of UKIP is precisely that: A fantasy.

    The other evening there was a movie screened on TV. It was called “The Tourist” Shot seven years ago in 2010, it featured a beautiful lady (Angelina Jollie, the image below is from the movie) accosting a chap of a train and inviting him back to her suite in a luxurious Venetian hotel.For many of us blokes, such a thing is a complete fantasy! As much as we might wish it (We do! – Ed.) – such does not happen to such as us!

    In other words, the choices (for the UK) are these:

    1. Halt Brexit and revoke Article 50.
    2. Accept the ONLY practical deal: Leave the EU whilst remaining in the EEA and for a transition period, the EU’s customs union.
    3. Crash out with “no deal”.

    In the past, this organ has suggested that Madame Mayhem and her colleagues are staging, “un grand coup de théâtre”. In our opinion, Madame’s latest performance on the stage in Brussels serves only to confirm this!

    Of course, Madame is in an impossible situation. This is because Solution #2 is – or should be – TEMPORARY! Whilst remaining in the EEA (Single market) is a medium to long term evolutionary situation, remaining in the EU’s customs union should only last for a limited time – that being dictated to get at numerous customs posts – on both sides of the EU’s borders erected!

    And there of course is the poisonous dilemma laid out before Madame!

    It is this: the DUP WILL NOT accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the UK. The economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom WILL NOT be compromised in any way.

    What this means is this: IF and/or WHEN the UK leaves the EU, remains in the EEA AND the EU’s customs union, Madame will be unable to leave the EU’s customs union and remain in office until she is no longer beholden to Mrs Foster!

    However this situation could be resolved in 2022 (or earlier) at the next General Election.