• Two views on Brexit: The insane and the sane.

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    In common with most users of the internet, we received this morning emails from senders who have us on their email list. One of these for the British Gazette is Mr Atkinson’s “Free Nations” website.

    Mr Atkinson requested us to forward his latest and spurious contribution to the sum of human knowledge. Thus, rather than send it in the form of an email, we attached a hypertext link in the body of today’s article.
    Herewith: http://freenations.net/brexit-no-need-to-pay-a-penny-for-eu-free-trade/
    Mr Atkinson is of the opinion that a NDB (No Deal Brexit) can and should be a painless affair. This is as divorced from reality as the belief that having one’s leg amputated without anaesthetic is going to be painless!

    And yet this is the delusional nonsense being put out by many “Ultra” Brexiteers!

    Contrasted against this insanity we have the sanity from such as the learned Doctor North, who again delivered an intelligent commentary in his blog;post of today.
    GOTO: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86956
    In stark contrast to the errant Atkinson, the learned doctor opines that a NDB is going to be economically costly – in terms of increased unemployment, an economic downturn and disruption to trade.

    He is not wrong!

    However, the British Gazette is firmly of the opinion that the enormous economic consequences of a NDB will have political consequences that will act just as quickly and just as severely as the economic ones. And that there will be a direct and positive co-relation between the effects of each.

    It is at this point that many British political commentators (be their activists, journalists or politicians) restrict their vision to the UK. This inward looking tendency is very common across all cultures across the world.

    However, it is important to look beyond the UK’s borders when considering the effects of a NDB.

    Apart from the UK, two sovereign entities will be affected by a NDB. The most affected (after the UK) will be the EU. And in particular, Ireland.

    There will be two solutions that will be obvious to those in the EU: The UK to retain/rejoin membership of the EEA by membership of EFTA OR rejoining the EU and with it the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) prior to joining the Eurozone.

    It is quite possible – even probable – that following the disruption and downturn caused by a NDB there will be a huge up-swell in support for EU membership in the young. The demographic that did not vote in the same numbers as the pensioner demographic that did.

    What many UK commentators have not appreciated is that there will be many Europhiles across the EU who will regard a UK NDB as a “beneficial crisis” and an opportunity to have a newly Europhile UK return to the EU’s embrace. This is because whilst the pensioner demographic will be even more hostile towards the EU than before, the young demographic will see the EU as their saviour.

    However, one must extend one’s view to cover other parts. In particular the USA. British Gazette readers will of course remember the involvement of the then President of the USA, Mr Obama in the referendum campaign. Be under no doubt – no doubt whatsoever – that Mr Obama’s successor, President Trump will involve himself in the consequences of a NDB!

    Unlike his more polite and cultured predecessor, Mr Trump will not wait to be invited by a British Prime Minister before getting involved. He will need no invitation, albeit he may very well receive one from a certain N. Farage!

    We can be sure that Mr Trump will have his own unique homespun (Should that be Twitter-spun? – Ed) “take” on a NDB. This will be one that will be fully and completely aligned with Mr Farage’s! Which will in turn be completely aligned with UKIP’s line! That the EU is outrageously blockading the UK. Doubtless “The Donald” and his supporters in Fox News may draw analogies with the U-Boat blockade of the North Atlantic route by Nazi Germany in WW2! Our German readers will recall during the Eurozone crisis in Greece Greek protesters restored to having Frau Doktor Merkel portrayed in Nazi uniform. We can expect similar in the USA.

    President Trump of course will regard himself as a White Knight coming to the rescue of the UK with a special all encompassing “Free Trade Deal”.

    It is at this point where those who appreciate irony will smile – grimly.

    You see, the circles will well and truly have been turned!

    You see, when the Arch-traitor Heath took the UK into what was to become the EU on New Year’s Day 1973, he lied, lied and lied about the UK joining “the Common Market”. Of course, as Nigel Farage and UKIP were later to point out, the so-called “Common Market” was much much more than a Free Trade Deal. It was a regulatory and administrative union!

    In 2019 President Trump’s “Free Trade Deal” offer may be much much more. It may be a one sided “de-facto” regulatory and administrative union! British businesses will be able to take advantage of unrestricted access to the US market by some form of licensed regulatory compliance. As will US businesses to the UK market.

    Such would result in a complete takeover. It would mean that the institutions that are the BBC and the NHS will in effect be privatised. The BBC will become a subscription service – this is actually UKIP policy. This will result in people no longer requiring a TV licence. The NHS will be broken up into privatised units and UK citizens will be required to obtain Health Insurance – this is NOT UKIP policy!

    It is after an examination of the US President’s reaction we being to see what might lie behind the actions and prognostications of the Tory Hard Brexiteers!

    You see these characters will be looking at two things in particular: These are the NHS and the State Pension. You see, in a country with an ageing population the cost of these things will increase constantly. They wish to bring about a paradigm shift in the running and financing of these two central features of the post war “Welfare State”.

    These right wing Tories see a situation where the NHS will swallow up ever more amounts of taxpayers money preventing the UK from being what they see as a low tax, business friendly environment. There will already be business people working on innovative provision of private heath insurance for the UK’s elderly. You see, it is the elderly that are the problem to the underwriter of private health insurance. Insuring a 20 year old is not generally a problem. Insuring a 70 year old is generally a problem! We used the word “innovative” as we will not be surprised if certain insurers combine private health insurance with some form of equity release to enable those elderly persons who own their home to pay for their health care with the equity contained in their home.

    As for the state pension, expect to pay more (in the form of NICs), for longer and get less. Indeed, the state pension may be “reformed” – by being replaced with a small “universal” pension and a additional “supplementary” pension, the latter being means tested.

    Of course a very salty form of irony will be rubbed into the wounds of many who voted for Brexit – particularly UKIP members. This is because UKIP’s membership is generally elderly. UKIP’s elderly members are very supportive of the NHS and want to see it continue. Because they are frequent users of it! They also would like to see the high level of state pension continue.

    However, by advocating a NDB they are putting the kibosh on these treasured things!