• Brexit and Bust!

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    In 1969 there was the comedy film, “Monte Carlo or Bust!”. Presumably when this is over someone may get round to the satire, “Brexit and Bust!”

    I thought I’d never live to see the day when the communications from the politicians in the country I was living in possessed the same credibility (NOT) as the email I received this morning from a gentleman possibly living in Nigeria! Herewith below:

    “Hello and good day.

    My name is Edward, and I am contacting you for partnership by reason of the significance of your Nationality, which concerns claim/transfer of Approximately 21 Million US Dollars in a fixed deposit account left by a deceased Boss and Friend for onward sharing between you and I in a ratio to be agreed.

    Kindly get back to me as soon as you receive this email for complete details as time is of the essence giving that we have less than 2 month period to achieve this.

    Regards

    Edward.”

    I have not replied and do not intend to!

    This is not the first such communication I have received. Each time I receive one however I ask myself this question:

    “Who can be so stupid as to be taken in by this?”

    Presumably the people who believe politicians (including Ukippers) claiming that we can have all the upsides of being in the EU without any of the downsides and that this Nirvana will be delivered at the fifty ninth second of the fifty ninth minute of the eleventh hour on Friday 29th March 2019 with the statement, “These things always go right down to the wire! You’ll see!”

    These words were spoken to me by a smiling UKipper who was completely unconcerned by, as they said, “All these stupid scare stories!”

    To me HMG’s continued procrastination – which we all know is a thief of time – has caused me to write some new words to “Row your boat” viz.

    Row, row, row your boat,
    Steadily up the creek.
    Steadily, steadily, steadily, steadily,
    Up the [profanity redacted] creek!

    Of course REALITY in the form of the EU’s communiqué is to be found by clicking in the link below:
    GOTO: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/35966/29-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf
    So, what is likely to happen?

    Well, the excellent Dr. Richard North is of the opinion that the EU may offer a series of emergency measures in the event of a hard Brexit in order to ensure essential supplies – such as medicines and life maintaining equipment are not disrupted. Hopefully, air travel will be one. This won’t he thinks be uniform in it’s extent and time-scale but an attempt to keep chaos at bay to allow “new normal” to be established.

    Dr. North draws people’s attention to the inescapable logic that such a state of affairs will be economically damaging and will result in lower living standards.

    The British Gazette is firmly of the opinion that a date has to be kept in mind. That is Friday 29th March 2019. This is a date the EU may offer to shift. However the treaty requires unanimity which means that not only have the EU27 to agree, the UK must as well. Furthermore, this is NOT something for which the Royal Prerogative can be used. This is because delaying Brexit has the effect of amending, making, repealing and suspending Law – and to do this the Crown REQUIRES the consent of Parliament.

    The British Gazette is firmly of the opinion that since the can has been kicked down the road to the next October meeting, then not a lot will happen until then.

    The EU’s meeting on Thursday 18th October 2018 is after the UK’s Party Conference season.

    The British Gazette is firmly of the opinion that come that Thursday afternoon, time, like a thief will have robbed Madame Mayhem of her choices and that the choices will be made by the markets.

    It might start on Wall Street that day. UK companies quoted on it will be marked down. Heavily! Sterling will crash in value. Friday 19th October will be “Black Friday” with the FTSE in free-fall. Monday 22nd October could see the International Credit Rating Agencies mark down the UK’s Credit Rating – substantially! At that point the FTSE would fall further and the Sterling would continue to drop. The Bank of England would intervene and hike interest rates probably to 5%!

    Chaos of course would ensure at the Palace of Varieties – sorry, Westminster. It is almost inevitable that in such circumstances there will be a Second Referendum!

    Of course, the failure of Brexit will be added to the National Mythology.

    Ukippers will have convinced themselves that Brexit was sabotaged from the outside.

    They will state what should have happened is as follows:

    #1: That Article 50 should have been invoked immediately the Brexit vote was declared on 24th June 2016.

    #2: That the UK’s demand for Free Trade in Goods and Services with the EU should have been issued and should the EU not have agreed the UK should have walked away and repealed the EU Communities Act 1972 and have done with them!

    #3: Had this been done, Brexit would have been achieved and there would have been no great difficulty!

    #4: That the act of “dragging things out” and “not getting on with it” caused the markets to react as they did!