The British Gazette

In his informative blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87183) Doctor North again speculates authoritatively upon the possible outcomes arising from Madame’s summons to this country’s Imperial Overlord (IO) in it’s capital, Brussels.

What HAS to be borne in mind is that despite the outpourings from the mouths of Messrs. Bone, Farage & Batten the EU does NOT want to loose the UK as a member. Now, whilst it can be said that the EU does not want to loose any member it particularly does not want to loose a major member such as the UK!

When Kippers state, “the EU wants our money” they are absolutely right. It does. But it goes much further than that. You see, the very idea of the EU is built around one word: collective. The idea is that if one puts the medium sized countries and the small countries in Europe together as one socio-economic political unit, you get – for the purposes of negotiating trade deals – a super-power. Of course, the Europhiles would like (and plan) to go further than this and project this supra-national confederation onto the world stage as a power in it’s own right. Loosing the UK weakens this. It also sets a precedent.

Now there are British Remainiacs who are starting to wail and gnash their teeth about the EU27 suddenly not liking the UK any more because of all the horrible things that Messrs. Bone, Farage & Batten are saying. This merely demonstrates how naïve and childish they are! The FACT is that of all the member states of the EU the UK has been one of the best behaved members in terms of it’s adherence to the EU’s laws is concerned. The UK obeys the rules, pays it’s and pays it’s contributions on time. No sensible ruler wants to be rid of such a compliant servant.

Doctor North correctly reports upon the decisions handed down by our IO but we differ in our conclusions about them.

The IO clearly has factored a third defeat of the Meaningless Vote and expects Madame to once again approach cap in hand for a second extension to reset the clock beyond Friday 12th April 2019. Madame will also have to commit the UK to holding elections for the EuroParl. They might at that point extend Article 50 to Friday 12th April 2024 – a whole five years! Which explains the YouTube opening sequence of the early “Porridge” TV sit-com at the top of the post!

Eventually the most likely scenario will be a second referendum or confirmatory vote. From the EU’s perspective this is the logical, obvious and sensible option to pursue. You see, at the time of the referendum back in 2016 we in the Leave campaign and those in the Remain campaign were mutually aware that defeat/victory lay in “getting our vote out”. This is indeed how most elections are won! You see, the number of voters who actually switch votes can be quite small. The deciding factor is often the fact that the winner has managed to get those minded to vote for them to the polling station and the loser has failed in this.

During the referendum both sides knew that the Leave voters were often elderly and these persons had a track record of voting, whilst the Remain voters were often young and had a track record of not voting. Thus the Remain camp worked hard to get the young to vote. The Remain camp’s failure to do this in sufficient numbers was the reason why Leave won and Remain lost. This was confirmed by large numbers of young people (many of whom had not voted) being very angry and upset at the result and was the reason behind cries of “our votes were stolen” and calls for old people’s votes not to be given the same weight and young peoples votes for they would be around for that long!
The Remainers and the EU know that the more time passes the more likely will be a Remain vote in a second referendum.
Furthermore, there is a related development that EU politicians will be very aware of. That is the profusion of EU flags in London (and elsewhere). Before the spring of 2016, EU flags were noticeable by their absence in the UK!

There is a well known aspect of psychology at work here: It is used in sales and marketing and is called the “puppy dog sale”. The idea is this: Give a small child a puppy. Allow the child to become attracted and pleased with the puppy. Then take it away. The child will cry or otherwise protest. You see many people in the UK never valued the EU – until they are now faced with the prospect of loosing it!