Erskine Childers 1903 novel, “The Riddle of the Sands: A Record of Secret Service” is a most splendid read. It tells of a couple of British chaps discovering secret German invasion plans. Influential in the genre of spy fiction, it has been made into feature-length films for both cinema and television.
The recent EU Summit attended by the inscrutable Mrs May continues the noise generation machine that has now taken the place of sensible political discourse not only in the UK but across the rest of the EU, for it should not be forgotten that until Brexit is a FACT, the UK continues to form part of the EU.
That this appears to have been forgotten by “the colleagues” all forms part of a massive illusion being perpetrated on the people of the UK. The most notable things about this illusion are it’s extent and the relatively small number of cognoscenti who actually know what is going on!
Most MPs, nearly all journalists and those pundits retained by such as the Bullshit Broadcasting Corporation are most definitely among the non-cognoscenti! They haven’t a clue what is going on! They keep prattling on about “hard and soft Brexit”, and “trade deals”.
For brevity, today’s article will not attempt to explain these errors but instead will speculate upon the probable strategy that lies behind the noise.
Fundamentally, this is a political strategy borne out by the problem that what most Leave voters voted for is IMPOSSIBLE to achieve! Given a choice, politicians will always prefer to do the popular than the unpopular. However, things become very difficult when they have gone and dug themselves – or in Mrs May’s case, been pushed into a hole of Mr Farage’s digging – into “promising” that which is impossible to achieve!
So when hearing the noise generated the British Gazette reader MUST bear in mind this one simple FACT: FLEXCIT, complied by Dr. Richard North and others which has the UK leaving the EU, re-joining EFTA and continuing to be part of the EEA is the ONLY feasible, practical Brexit strategy.
Fervent Ukippers may not like this. But in life there are many things we do not like and there is little or nothing that we can do about it! Get used to it!
So, we hear you paraphrase a certain Mr Donald Trump: “What the hell is going on?”
Possibly this: Mrs May is planning to secure a working majority. This means that plans might be afoot for a GENERAL ELECTION in May 2017.
On Thursday 4th May 2017, 35 councils in England, all 32 Scottish councils, all 22 Welsh councils and 12 directly elected mayors in England will be up for election.
Now of course, Mrs May has repeatedly stated that she has no plans for an early election. Well to paraphrase the late Marilyn “Mandy” Rice-Davies; “She would, wouldn’t she?”
The trigger for this may well be a Parliamentary defeat over Article 50. British Gazette readers will know that a number of Remoaners have launched a legal challenge to the government’s intention to invoke Article 50. Here then is something else fervent Ukippers will not like: the British Gazette agrees with these Remoners insofar as the legalities are concerned: that an Act of Parliament is required to give a minister the power to lay a statutory instrument before the Commons that has the effect of invoking Article 50.
Because of the validity of these self same Ukippers own rhetoric!
These fervent Ukippers have frequently told anyone who cares to listen – and a few of those who do not care to – that a large proportion of the government of this formerly sovereign country is now enacted in Brussels.
Here is a FACT: Were a member state (such as the UK) to invoke Article 50 to withdraw from the EU such a withdrawal WILL take place two years after the article has been invoked and unless otherwise agreed to, ALL treaties governing the former member’s links to and membership of the EU will CEASE. That means that all laws and regulations introduced under these treaties will CEASE to have effect in the UK. Unless specifically legislated for.
Hooray! We hear many fervent Ukippers shout.
However they FAIL to take into account the FACT that under the Declaration of Rights 1688 and the ratifying Bill of Rights 1689, the Sovereign REQUIRES Parliament’s consent for all enactments.
Thus, the Queen’s government of which Mrs May is Prime Minister cannot repeal legislation because legislation is repealed by legislation itself and this cannot be done by the Royal will. As King Charles I discovered.
Since Invoking Article 50 sets in forth a procedure that cannot be stopped, such invocation has the effect of repealing all manner of law associated with the EU. It therefore requires an Act of Parliament to do so.
Of course, this is what should happen. Whether it will is another matter entirely as the courts have become suborned to the ruling establishment.
One forms the strong impression that Mrs May is playing for time and treading water, waiting for events to play out. The lady clearly is manoeuvring herself into a negotiating position. This would explain her apparent relaxed attitude towards “the colleagues” carrying on without the UK. According to the treaties, all EU member states have to be invited in order for decisions to have effect. In other words, if one member is prevented from turning up the meeting is inquorate.
Thus when Mrs May stated; “I’ve been clear that the U.K. is discussing our future trade relationship with third countries. This will not undermine the EU’s trade agenda. It is not in competition with it.” they were not in any position to protest.
NB: Trade negotiations are an EU Sole Competence. The UK has no authority in this area unless the EU grants it.
Mrs May went on to say she wanted, “a mature, cooperative relationship with our European partners.” Then, “We’re not looking to replicate a model that somebody else has.” And, “It’s about seizing the opportunities of Brexit.”
If legislation to invoke Article 50 is introduced and it is defeated by a combination of Europhile Tories, Labour, LibDem and SNP votes – entirely possible – Mrs May could seize the opportunity to force a general election on the pretext that the government wishes to implement the will of the British People that was expressed on 23rd June 2016.
Mrs May may talk about not wanting to go to the country but the numbers would suggest otherwise.
Mrs May does not have a majority that is likely to survive much in the way of controversy. She has two choices:
1. Force through Flexcit with opposition votes.
2. Obtain a large enough majority to cope with a rebellion by the “Hard Brexiteers.”
Mrs May will be subject to two temptations:
1. Labour’s disarray.
2. UKIP’s perceived irrelevance (by voters) and collapse in support (from voters).
A GE victory in May 2017 will mean that she would likely have a working majority for a 5 year term until May 2022. If she is going into Article 50 negotiations she NEEDS this for that will give her AUTHORITY.
British Gazette summary: Given that FLEXCIT is for the UK, Hobson’s choice and Mrs May seems determined to proceed with Brexit, UKIP’s job is to ensure that they are part of the solution and not part of the problem. Therefore opposing Brexiteer MP’s – even lunatic ones such as John Redwood – is counter productive. By all means stand candidates against certain prominent Tory Europhiles but concentrate on putting up against the majority of Labour candidates with the obvious exceptions of the small number of Brexiteer Labour candidates.