• Brexit: Trussed up like a turkey!

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    British Gazette readers will know that this organ’s articles are always headed up by an image. For the simple reason that, “a picture paints a thousand words.”

    We admit, some images are not apparently linked to the text of the article, but we do not think that is a complaint that will be directed towards us today.
    In his blog-post today (http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86705), the learned Dr. North sets out in painful detail (painful that is to those of a patriotic disposition!) the hole into which Madame Mayhem aided and abetted by Dimwit Davis has managed to land the UK!
    This of course is the very same situation which this organ has been describing as “Purgatory” for some time now!
    The other thing of course is that this organ has been insisting that Flexcit authored by Dr. North and others, is the ONLY doable, practical Brexit strategy! Both (EU Referendum and the British Gazette) have been saying this for some considerable time now and importantly we were stating this DURING the EU Referendum campaign!

    Notwithstanding this however, our message still is not getting through to many Brexiteers who now believe that a “Hard Brexit” is something to be desired and sought! They hold this in spite of all evidence to the contrary. This to them is now an article of faith.

    Words aplenty have been published by this organ attempting to persuade these people that this is a delusion. It has for many, not worked. Thus we will attempt to use the “image method.” AGAIN!If you hold a UK driving licence and use it, the above image will not be unfamiliar to you. You know perfectly well the choices open to you at such a junction. You have THREE sensible choices out of a potential FOUR. They are:

    #1 – Turn left. The analogy is this: The UK could leave the EU, leave the Customs Union and continue in the EEA and join EFTA. This of course is the so-called “Norway Option” or Flexcit.

    #2 – Turn right. The analogy is this: The UK could rejoin the EU, and join the Eurozone and the Schengen Area.
    Now at this point, many British Gazette readers will attempt to pre-empt the Editor and suggest that the third option is:
    Reverse, perform a three point turn and go back down the road. This of course can only be done if traffic conditions permit! If there is a queue of vehicles behind you you cannot do this! The analogy is this: The UK could revoke Article 50 IF the other EU 27 member states will accept this. It appears that the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, thinks this is possible.
    Au contraire, mon amie!
    You see, the above junction is NOT “Brexit Day” 29th March 2019 but a date, so far unknown, but assumed to be Monday, 29th March 2021, when the UK will have come to the END of the transition period. The option to reverse is ONLY possible whilst the UK is a member of the EU under the terms it has now and BEFORE the 2 year period in Article 50 has expired! Once the UK has “Brexited”, reversing course is NOT an option!

    So, if turning left into the EEA+EFTA is not your wish and turning right into the EU+Eurozone+Schengen Area is not your wish, what is #3?

    To push the analogy further, it is this. One does, what Rolls Royce dealers say when one of their cars breaks down: Fail to proceed!

    In other words, one turns the ignition off and sit in a stationery car!

    The analogy is this: The UK could ask the EU for an extension of the Transition Treaty period!

    That the assumed date for this is Monday, 29th March 2021, it MIGHT be the option British Gazette readers witness IF Madame Mayhem is still PM and there has yet to be a General Election. This is because she is beholden to the DUP!

    You see, the problem that is going to be at the CRUX of this dog’s breakfast of a negotiation is THIS: The DUP is NOT prepared to see a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Nor is it prepared to see a hard border between the island of Ireland and mainland Britain.

    The FACT is this: IF the UK is to proceed beyond the status of “dependent territory” (of the EU!) then the transition period MUST end and whilst membership of the EEA is essential to avoid crashing the economy, leaving the membership of the Customs Union is essential for the UK to be able to function as an independent sovereign state!

    The reason for the transition period is twofold:
    #1. To prevent economic and logistical chaos and:
    #2. To allow sufficient time for the construction of the necessary infrastructure – by the UK AND the EU member states – to enable smooth flow of trade outside the Customs Union!

    This is of course why the EU must know what the UK’s intentions are vis-à-vis the Irish border! Before the EU can build their border posts they MUST know where to build them!

    And thus we go right back nearly to square one! This is because Mrs Foster will NOT allow a border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland nor a border between Northern Ireland and the UK!

    Thus we could see a situation where the EU and the UK are unable to put the border posts in place during the transition period. If the border posts cannot be erected during this period then the economically sensible choices are “stay put” aka #3 OR #2 aka EU+Eurozone+Schengen Area! This is because #1 aka the Norway Option will be unavailable as the border posts will NOT be in place!

    Thus it appears that the transition period will NOT expire until AFTER the next General Election!

    So where in the analogy is UKIP’s favoured option, a “Hard Brexit”?

    Easy to answer! It is to drive straight on into the garden of the bungalow! You see, whilst the Laws of Physics permit this, the Highways Act does not!

    So, IF the long suffering citizens of the UK are NOT going to find themselves in the EU, the Eurozone and the Schengen Area, then we are going to have to wait until a UK government does not need to rely on the votes of the DUP and to put in place a “wet border” between the island of Ireland and mainland Britain!