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15th Sep 18
peter
Above, the Square One shopping centre, Mississauga, Ontario.
I must admit, this whole Brexit farce has for some time now been depressing and tedious. It is like watching a tedious Hercule Poirot film where you know how it will end – the famous Belgian detective, using his “little grey cells” will gather all the suspects and characters in a room and starting with the innocent will chastise each to a greater or lesser degree before finally pointing the accusatory finger at the guilty one who will then “fess up”, a policeman will walk in and they will meekly follow him to a police cell and ultimately the gallows.
Not everybody of course is as well informed as the British Gazette’s readers!
Herewith two current commentaries on the situation:
Fantasy: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6170267/PETER-OBORNE-Im-convinced-Brexit-deal-sealed-kiss.html
Reality: http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=86994
One could not make it up!
How will this end? Or: Which of the characters is the murderer?
Who knows?
The British Gazette has been of the opinion for some time that other outside factors have to be taken into consideration. Brexit is not happening in a vacuum. Other events are taking place elsewhere.
It looks like November is going to be a crucial month.
Sunday 11th November 2018 will see the centenary of Armistice Day – which will mean HM at the Cenotaph in Whitehall. The date may be rich – indeed overflowing with irony. One hundred years ago the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland was a world power. Today, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is seeking to negotiate it’s independence!
How the mighty have fallen!
Of course, the negotiations have it appears, been a lamentable failure!
Those “other factors” include:
- The implementation of additional sanctions by the USA on Russia following the Salisbury nerve agent attack.
- The Italian Crisis (wait and see)
- The EU Emergency Council Meeting in November when it is clear that it is going to be a “No Deal Brexit”
What will follow will be turmoil on the London Stock Exchange, a crash in the value of Sterling, Mr Carney jacking up interest rates – a lot!
The House of Lords may act by putting forward a second referendum bill to ask the voters to decide between accepting the no deal Brexit revoking Article 50.
Expect at this point the EU Commission and/or the ECJ to state that A50 could be revoked if the following happened:
#1: The British People voted for such revocation in a referendum and:
#2: Parliament legislated the repeal of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (c. 16) and associated legislation.
Expect both the Conservative and Labour front benches to reject the House of Lords second referendum bill. Expect the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru to argue and vote for such a bill when it reaches the Commons. Expect a large number of Conservative and Labour MP’s to defy their party three line whips and to support the bill.
If the bill becomes an act, expect the vote to take place in February. Possibly on Thursday 14th February 2019 – St Valentine’s Day!
