• Brexit, no Brexit: Your invidious choice!


    Above are three methods that can still be used in the USA today. Of the three, the lethal injection method is generally preferred by those who have to suffer the ultimate judicial punishment.

    Imagine one moment Dear Reader that you have been wrongly convicted of a capital crime and have received the sentence of death. That all appeals against the conviction and sentence and pleas for clemency have failed and you are faced with that period of time which Doctor Johnson describes: “…..that the prospect of being hanged in a fortnight concentrates a man’s mind wonderfully!”

    You Dear Reader have a choice: The method of your execution. It can be by either of the three methods above! Not much of a choice is it! Especially since all are painful. Albeit some more than others!

    Well Dear Reader, you may not have this awful choice before you – but you MIGHT be presented with another awful choice: Again, the choice would appear to be three:

    1. Transition termination into a Canada type “Free Trade Agreement.”
    2. Transition termination without a deal – the so called “crash Brexit.”
    3. Transition termination and rejoining the EU.

    NB: BREXIT (that is to say the UK’s exit from the EU) will have taken place at one second after 11PM London Time on Friday 29th March 2019.

    Of course there is choice #4: Flexcit! That is remaining in the EEA, leaving the EU’s Customs Union and rejoining EFTA. It appears however that British politicians are determined not to adopt this choice.

    The question is this: Who will be making this choice?

    Will it be MPs by a vote in Parliament?

    Will it be the British People in a referendum?

    We are of course well into the realms of speculation. But we would suggest that it is speculation based on reality and not fantasy.

    IF it is a referendum it may be a referendum with a difference for referendums have in the past been binary choices – of alternatives. However the MP’s – and a referendum will require primary legislation to bring it about – may decide to offer the voters the three choices above.

    Were a referendum to be proposed the British Gazette would argue strongly for three choices. This is because:

    1. There are many people including almost (but not all) the entire membership of UKIP would wish most ardently to be afforded the opportunity to campaign for a “no Deal Brexit”.
    2. Offering the voters a choice of three (or four) is more democratic than offering them a choice of two.

    If three choices are offered which will be the voting system used?
    There are three to choose from.
    1. The First Past the Post. (GOTO: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/first-past-the-post/)
    2. The Alternative Vote. (GOTO: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/alternative-vote/)
    3. The Supplementary Vote. (GOTO: https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/types-of-voting-system/supplementary-vote/)
    Given the momentous nature of the vote the British Gazette would hope and argue that #1 is NOT used!

    The FACT is that we are all in an utterly surreal situation!

    In 375 days the UK will have left the EU and have entered “The Transition” – what the British Gazette has termed “Purgatory”! “The Transition” – “Purgatory” will last for 643 days.
    HOWEVER. ALL of the above has to be viewed in the light of TWO FACTS:
    1. Both dates – 29th March 2019 and 31st December 2020 take place before a General Election has to be held. This means that Madame Mayhem will require the support of the DUP!

    2. The DUP wants: NO border on the island of Ireland and NO border in the Irish Sea! After 29th March 2019, this can ONLY be achieved in three ways:

    1. By rejoining the EU.
    2. By extending the Transition Period.
    3. By a “Deep and Special Free Trade Agreement” that keeps the UK within the EEA and the Customs Union but leaves it outside the EU and EFTA! This is what in “cercles diplomatiques” is known as “un état vassal” and what in the Foreign Office is known as “dependent territory status”.

    It is #2 we need to turn our attention to. This is because to implement choices #1 or #3 causes Madame Mayhem’s pretence of governance to collapse.

    Thus Madame Mayhem’s plan presumably is to avoid a general election until Thursday 5th May 2022. That is an extension of the transition period of 491 days! To avoid it being so patently obvious the period will be extended by the round number of 500 days bringing the dénouement to Saturday 14th May 2022!

    What this means is this: Madame Mayhem CANNOT negotiate ANY form of Brexit whilst retaining the support of the DUP. It cannot be done. Flexcit, the brainchild of Doctor Richard North, Mr Christopher Booker and others is included in this list of impossibilities.

    Let us assume that Madame Mayhem and her party does not want a general election before Thursday 5th May 2022 and desires to be re-elected on Thursday 5th May 2022. This can ONLY be achieved by extending the transition period.

    Let us address now the question of whether or not the EU will consent to an extension of the transition period: In the opinion of the British Gazette the European Commission will conclude that they have relatively little choice as what will have been made patently obvious for some considerable time now is that Madame Mayhem’s pretence of a government cannot and will not negotiate a Brexit settlement! What is obvious is that ever since the last General Election, Madame has been stymied by the DUP.

    However, extending the transition period until after the date of the next General Election will not get Madame off the petard onto which she has managed to hoist herself. This is because “common sense” would mean that the transition period will be used to construct what is known as Border Inspection Posts or “BIPs”. And of course this gets us right back to the issue of the Irish border!
    Here is another FACT: ANY Brexit settlement will HAVE to deal with the issue of the Irish border to the satisfaction of the government of the Irish Republic.
    You see, a border requires not ONE but TWO BIPs. One on one side of the border and one on the other! This means that BIPs will be unlikely to be constructed anywhere in Europe until such a time as Madame is free from the reliance on DUP votes. In other words not before Thursday 5th May 2022!

    What this means then is this: If no BIPs are constructed – and they take time – then the transition cannot end on say, Saturday 14th May 2022 without chaos!

    IF they are constructed, construction of BIPs will likely commence after the result of the next General Election.

    Of course, it is not just the question of BIPs which is troubling Madame. There is the question of the transition itself. You see, we are sure you all know the proverb, “When the cat is away, the mice are at play!” Well if you define “play” as turning the EU into a federal superstate and the cat as the UK and the mice France and Germany you will see what can happen during that time!

    This is going to likely result in a treaty requirement for all member states not at present in the Eurozone to join in 2025. A five year extension from the original date of 2020. Thus should the UK end up in the EU after transition, then the UK will have to join the Eurozone in 2025.
    It appears that we are all going to spend a long, long time in Purgatory!